Brasileirão Série A · Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 22:30 UK
Coritiba FBC vs Grêmio FBPA prediction (Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 22:30 UK): Coritiba FBC 38% · Draw 26% · Grêmio FBPA 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.43–1.39. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 53%, No 47%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Coritiba vs Grêmio preview
Coritiba (12th, 39 pts) host Grêmio (18th, 31 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Coritiba have taken 2 points from their last 5 games (LDLLD) and Grêmio 3 points from 5 (LDDDL). Grêmio have not won in their last 7 league games.
Our model sees little between the sides: Coritiba 38%, Grêmio 36%. Expected goals are 1.43 for Coritiba and 1.39 for Grêmio, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).
The goal markets sit close to the Brasileirão Série A norm: Over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 53%. In their last 3 meetings, Grêmio won all 3; 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 54%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.
Who will win Coritiba FBC vs Grêmio FBPA?
This is close to a coin flip: Coritiba FBC 38%, Grêmio FBPA 36%, with the draw at 26%. Recent form: Coritiba FBC LDLLDL, Grêmio FBPA LDDDLL (latest first).
Grêmio lost 10 of 15 away games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 54% and Under 2.5 is 46%.
Over 2.5 in 2 of the last 3 meetings.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 78% | 22% | 1.29 |
| 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | 1.86 |
| 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | 3.19 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance: Coritiba FBC score in about 76% of simulated outcomes and Grêmio FBPA in about 75%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 10 of 15 Coritiba home games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.14 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Coritiba FBC win | 38% | 2.63 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 |
| Grêmio FBPA win | 36% | 2.78 |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.8 total goals.
| Coritiba \ Grêmio | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 1 | 8% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 6% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Coritiba and Grêmio played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Grêmio have not won in their last 7 league games.
- Coritiba have not won in their last 6 league games.
- Grêmio: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
- Grêmio: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Coritiba and Grêmio.
How Coritiba and Grêmio compare this season
| Stat | Coritiba (home, 15) | Grêmio (away, 15) | Brasileirão Série A average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 73% (11/15) | 73% (11/15) | 78% |
| Over 2.5 | 47% (7/15) | 40% (6/15) | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% (4/15) | 7% (1/15) | 26% |
| BTTS | 67% (10/15) | 53% (8/15) | 59% |
| Win % | 33% (5/15) | 0% (0/15) | 47% home · 25% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.33 | 0.60 | 1.33 |
| Goals against per game | 1.33 | 1.53 | 1.33 |
Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.
Brasileirão Série A table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba | 12 | 39 | 31 |
| Grêmio | 18 | 31 | 31 |
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Coritiba 0 wins, 0 draws, Grêmio 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 3; both teams scored in 2 of 3.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 26 Apr 2026 | Brasileirão Série A | Grêmio v Coritiba | 1–0 |
| Wed, 1 Nov 2023 | Brasileirão Série A | Coritiba v Grêmio | 1–2 |
| Sun, 25 Jun 2023 | Brasileirão Série A | Grêmio v Coritiba | 5–1 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Coritiba v Grêmio?
- Our model makes Coritiba the more likely winner at 38%: Coritiba 38%, draw 26%, Grêmio 36%. Grêmio lost 10 of 15 away games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Coritiba v Grêmio?
- Over 2.5 goals is 54% and under 2.5 is 46%, with expected goals of 2.8. Over 2.5 in 2 of the last 3 meetings.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Coritiba and Grêmio played recently?
- Latest first: Coritiba LDLLD, Grêmio LDDDL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- Coritiba FBC
- Grêmio FBPA
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Brasileirão Série A table
- Brasileirão Série A Home win
- Brasileirão Série A Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.577% | 60% | 23% | 17% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 50% |
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.575% | 35% | 28% | 37% | 46% | 72% | 25% | 51% |
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.578% | 45% | 28% | 27% | 43% | 69% | 22% | 49% |
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.575% | 31% | 28% | 41% | 46% | 72% | 25% | 51% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.574% | 65% | 22% | 13% | 48% | 73% | 26% | 48% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.575% | 41% | 27% | 32% | 47% | 73% | 25% | 51% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Mon, 26 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18:45 · PrimeiraPrimeira Liga  | U3.578% | 18% | 26% | 57% | 43% | 69% | 22% | 48% |
20:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.575% | 45% | 26% | 29% | 50% | 75% | 28% | 54% |
23:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.574% | 62% | 23% | 15% | 49% | 74% | 27% | 49% |