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Grêmio FBPA crest Grêmio FBPA vs Cruzeiro EC Cruzeiro EC crest prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK

Full-time: Grêmio FBPA 2–4 Cruzeiro EC (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Cruzeiro EC a 40% chance of winning, and the exact score 2–4 a 1% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.

4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Grêmio FBPA vs Cruzeiro EC prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): Grêmio FBPA 33% · Draw 28% · Cruzeiro EC 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.19–1.34. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Grêmio vs Cruzeiro pre-match preview

Grêmio (18th, 31 pts) host Cruzeiro (4th, 51 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Grêmio have taken 3 points from their last 5 games (DDDLL) and Cruzeiro 9 points from 5 (LWWLW), so Cruzeiro arrive in clearly better form. Cruzeiro: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 10 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Grêmio 33%, Cruzeiro 40%. Expected goals are 1.19 for Grêmio and 1.34 for Cruzeiro, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 51%, against 59% across the Brasileirão Série A. In their last 4 meetings, Grêmio didn't win any, Cruzeiro won 3 and 1 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 54%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Grêmio FBPA vs Cruzeiro EC?

This is close to a coin flip: Grêmio FBPA 33%, Cruzeiro EC 40%, with the draw at 28%. Recent form: Grêmio FBPA DDDLLL, Cruzeiro EC LWWLWL (latest first).

Grêmio have not won in their last 7 league games.

Grêmio FBPA33%
Draw28%
Cruzeiro EC40%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 46% and Under 2.5 is 54%.

Under 2.5 in 14 of 19 Cruzeiro away games last season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals72%28%1.38
2.5 goals46%54%2.15
3.5 goals25%75%4.01

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: Grêmio FBPA score in about 70% of simulated outcomes and Cruzeiro EC in about 74%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 12 of 16 Cruzeiro away games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes51%1.96
No49%2.04

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Grêmio FBPA win33%3.05
Draw28%3.62
Cruzeiro EC win40%2.53
Over 2.546%2.15
Under 2.554%1.87

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Grêmio FBPA goals (rows) × Cruzeiro EC goals (columns)
Grêmio \ Cruzeiro012345
08%10%7%3%1%0%
19%13%8%4%1%0%
26%8%5%2%1%0%
32%3%2%1%0%0%
41%1%1%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-113%
0-110%
1-09%
1-28%
0-08%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Grêmio and Cruzeiro played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Grêmio, last 5
  1. D 1–1 v Internacional
  2. D 1–1 at Clube do Remo
  3. D 0–0 v Palmeiras
  4. L 2–3 at Botafogo
  5. L 1–2 v Vasco da Gama
Grêmio, last 5 at home
  1. D 1–1 v Internacional
  2. D 0–0 v Palmeiras
  3. L 1–2 v Vasco da Gama
  4. W 3–1 v Chapecoense
  5. W 2–1 v São Paulo
Cruzeiro, last 5
  1. L 2–4 at Bragantino
  2. W 2–0 v São Paulo
  3. W 3–1 at Vitória
  4. L 1–2 at Santos
  5. W 3–1 v Paranaense
Cruzeiro, last 5 away
  1. L 2–4 at Bragantino
  2. W 3–1 at Vitória
  3. L 1–2 at Santos
  4. L 1–3 at Vasco da Gama
  5. W 2–1 at Corinthians

Current streaks

Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Grêmio and Cruzeiro.

How Grêmio and Cruzeiro compare this season

StatGrêmio (home, 16)Cruzeiro (away, 16)Brasileirão Série A average
Over 1.575% (12/16)88% (14/16)78%
Over 2.550% (8/16)75% (12/16)51%
Over 3.531% (5/16)44% (7/16)26%
BTTS69% (11/16)75% (12/16)59%
Win %44% (7/16)44% (7/16)47% home · 25% away
Goals for per game1.561.501.33
Goals against per game1.311.881.33

Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.

Brasileirão Série A table

TeamPosPtsP
Grêmio183131
Cruzeiro45131

Full Brasileirão Série A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Grêmio 0 wins, 1 draw, Cruzeiro 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sun, 19 Apr 2026Brasileirão Série ACruzeiro v Grêmio2–0
Wed, 5 Nov 2025Brasileirão Série AGrêmio v Cruzeiro0–1
Mon, 14 Jul 2025Brasileirão Série ACruzeiro v Grêmio4–1
Thu, 28 Nov 2024Brasileirão Série ACruzeiro v Grêmio1–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Grêmio v Cruzeiro?
Our model makes Cruzeiro the more likely winner at 40%: Grêmio 33%, draw 28%, Cruzeiro 40%. Grêmio have not won in their last 7 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Grêmio v Cruzeiro?
Over 2.5 goals is 46% and under 2.5 is 54%, with expected goals of 2.5. Under 2.5 in 14 of 19 Cruzeiro away games last season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Grêmio and Cruzeiro played recently?
Latest first: Grêmio DDDLL, Cruzeiro LWWLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoCruzeiro EC crestCruzeiroClube do Remo crestClube do RemoO1.577%60%23%17%53%77%30%50%
20:30 · BrasileirãoSC Internacional crestInternacionalBotafogo FR crestBotafogoU3.575%35%28%37%46%72%25%51%
20:30 · BrasileirãoMirassol FC crestMirassolSão Paulo FC crestSão PauloU3.578%45%28%27%43%69%22%49%
20:30 · BrasileirãoEC Vitória crestVitóriaCA Paranaense crestParanaenseU3.575%31%28%41%46%72%25%51%
22:30 · BrasileirãoSE Palmeiras crestPalmeirasRB Bragantino crestBragantinoU3.574%65%22%13%48%73%26%48%
22:30 · BrasileirãoCR Vasco da Gama crestVasco da GamaSC Corinthians Paulista crestCorinthiansU3.575%41%27%32%47%73%25%51%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sun, 18 Oct 2026
FT · BrasileirãoSão Paulo FC crestSão Paulo1CR Vasco da Gama crestVasco da Gama0O1.574%✕45%✓27%✕29%✕48%✕74%✕26%✕51%✕
FT · EredivisiePEC Zwolle crestZwolle4Go Ahead Eagles crestGo Ahead1O1.585%✓28%✓23%✕49%✕65%✓85%✓43%✓61%✓
FT · Serie AUdinese Calcio crestUdinese0US Lecce crestLecce3U3.580%✓53%✕27%✕20%✓41%✓68%✓20%✕48%✕
FT · La LigaCA Osasuna crestOsasuna2Real Racing Club de Santander crestSantander0O1.587%✓48%✓22%✕30%✕68%✕87%✓46%✕60%✕
FT · EredivisieSC Cambuur-Leeuwarden crestCambuur2AZ crestAZ2O1.586%✓22%✕21%✓56%✕66%✓86%✓44%✓60%✓