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Grêmio FBPA crest Grêmio FBPA vs SC Internacional SC Internacional crest prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 21:30 UK

Full-time: Grêmio FBPA 1–1 SC Internacional (Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 21:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave the draw a 28% chance, and the exact score 1–1 a 13% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 4.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Grêmio FBPA vs SC Internacional prediction (Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 21:30 UK): Grêmio FBPA 41% · Draw 28% · SC Internacional 31%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.36–1.13. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 50%, No 50%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (9%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Grêmio vs Internacional pre-match preview

Grêmio (18th, 31 pts) host Internacional (17th, 32 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Grêmio have taken 2 points from their last 5 games (DDLLL) and Internacional 6 points from 5 (WLWLL). Grêmio have not won in their last 7 league games.

Our model favours Grêmio at 41% to Internacional's 31%. Expected goals are 1.36 for Grêmio and 1.13 for Internacional, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 50%, against 59% across the Brasileirão Série A. In their last 4 meetings, Grêmio won 1, Internacional won 1 and 2 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 55%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Grêmio FBPA vs SC Internacional?

Grêmio FBPA are favoured at 41%, but the draw and a SC Internacional win together still account for 59%. Recent form: Grêmio FBPA DDLLLW, SC Internacional WLWLLD (latest first).

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

Grêmio FBPA41%
Draw28%
SC Internacional31%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 45% and Under 2.5 is 55%.

Under 2.5 in 10 of 16 Internacional away games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals71%29%1.40
2.5 goals45%55%2.21
3.5 goals24%76%4.18

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance: Grêmio FBPA score in about 74% of simulated outcomes and SC Internacional in about 68%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 11 of 16 Grêmio home games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes50%1.98
No50%2.02

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Grêmio FBPA win41%2.41
Draw28%3.58
SC Internacional win31%3.27
Over 2.545%2.21
Under 2.555%1.83

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Grêmio FBPA goals (rows) × SC Internacional goals (columns)
Grêmio \ SC012345
09%9%5%2%1%0%
111%13%7%3%1%0%
28%9%5%2%1%0%
33%4%2%1%0%0%
41%1%1%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-113%
1-011%
0-19%
0-09%
2-19%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Grêmio and Internacional played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Grêmio, last 5
  1. D 1–1 at Clube do Remo
  2. D 0–0 v Palmeiras
  3. L 2–3 at Botafogo
  4. L 1–2 v Vasco da Gama
  5. L 0–1 at Vitória
Grêmio, last 5 at home
  1. D 0–0 v Palmeiras
  2. L 1–2 v Vasco da Gama
  3. W 3–1 v Chapecoense
  4. W 2–1 v São Paulo
  5. D 1–1 v Fluminense
Internacional, last 5
  1. W 2–1 v Corinthians
  2. L 0–1 at São Paulo
  3. W 2–1 at Chapecoense
  4. L 2–3 v Santos
  5. L 2–3 at Bahia
Internacional, last 5 away
  1. L 0–1 at São Paulo
  2. W 2–1 at Chapecoense
  3. L 2–3 at Bahia
  4. D 0–0 at Palmeiras
  5. L 0–2 at Paranaense

Current streaks

Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Grêmio and Internacional.

How Grêmio and Internacional compare this season

StatGrêmio (home, 16)Internacional (away, 16)Brasileirão Série A average
Over 1.575% (12/16)75% (12/16)78%
Over 2.550% (8/16)38% (6/16)51%
Over 3.531% (5/16)25% (4/16)26%
BTTS69% (11/16)56% (9/16)59%
Win %44% (7/16)19% (3/16)47% home · 25% away
Goals for per game1.560.941.33
Goals against per game1.311.441.33

Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.

Brasileirão Série A table

TeamPosPtsP
Grêmio183131
Internacional173231

Full Brasileirão Série A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Grêmio 1 win, 2 draws, Internacional 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sun, 12 Apr 2026Brasileirão Série AInternacional v Grêmio0–0
Sun, 21 Sept 2025Brasileirão Série AInternacional v Grêmio2–3
Sun, 20 Apr 2025Brasileirão Série AGrêmio v Internacional1–1
Sat, 19 Oct 2024Brasileirão Série AInternacional v Grêmio1–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Grêmio v Internacional?
Our model makes Grêmio the more likely winner at 41%: Grêmio 41%, draw 28%, Internacional 31%. Model expects 2.5 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Grêmio v Internacional?
Over 2.5 goals is 45% and under 2.5 is 55%, with expected goals of 2.5. Under 2.5 in 10 of 16 Internacional away games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Grêmio and Internacional played recently?
Latest first: Grêmio DDLLL, Internacional WLWLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoCruzeiro EC crestCruzeiroClube do Remo crestClube do RemoO1.577%60%23%17%53%77%30%50%
20:30 · BrasileirãoSC Internacional crestInternacionalBotafogo FR crestBotafogoU3.575%35%28%37%46%72%25%51%
20:30 · BrasileirãoMirassol FC crestMirassolSão Paulo FC crestSão PauloU3.578%45%28%27%43%69%22%49%
20:30 · BrasileirãoEC Vitória crestVitóriaCA Paranaense crestParanaenseU3.575%31%28%41%46%72%25%51%
22:30 · BrasileirãoSE Palmeiras crestPalmeirasRB Bragantino crestBragantinoU3.574%65%22%13%48%73%26%48%
22:30 · BrasileirãoCR Vasco da Gama crestVasco da GamaSC Corinthians Paulista crestCorinthiansU3.575%41%27%32%47%73%25%51%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sun, 11 Oct 2026
FT · BrasileirãoSão Paulo FC crestSão Paulo2EC Vitória crestVitória1U3.581%✓46%✓29%✕25%✕39%✓66%✓19%✕48%✓
FT · EredivisieFC Utrecht crestUtrecht3Willem II Tilburg crestWillem II1O1.584%✓70%✓18%✕12%✕64%✓84%✓42%✓56%✓
FT · Serie AComo 1907 crestComo 19070AS Roma crestRoma0U3.577%✓37%✕28%✓34%✕44%✕70%✕23%✕51%✕
FT · EFL ChampSouthampton FC crestSouthampton1Portsmouth FC crestPortsmouth0O1.583%✕62%✓21%✕17%✕61%✕83%✕39%✕55%✕
FT · La LigaElche CF crestElche0RC Celta de Vigo crestCelta0O1.577%✕36%✕26%✓37%✕52%✕77%✕30%✕55%✕