Le Havre AC vs Paris Saint-Germain FC prediction

Ligue 1 · Fri, 30 Oct 2026, 18:00 UK

Le Havre AC vs Paris Saint-Germain FC prediction (Fri, 30 Oct 2026, 18:00 UK): Le Havre AC 11% · Draw 18% · Paris Saint-Germain FC 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 0-2. Expected goals 0.78–2.28. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 54%, No 46%. Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%).

Published Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Le Havre vs PSG preview

Le Havre (18th, 2 pts) host PSG (2nd, 14 pts) in the Ligue 1. Le Havre have taken 1 point from their last 5 games (LLLDL) and PSG 15 points from 5 (WWWWW), so PSG arrive in clearly better form. Le Havre have not won in their last 7 league games.

Our model makes PSG clear favourites at 71%, with Le Havre at 11%. Expected goals are 0.78 for Le Havre and 2.28 for PSG, and the most likely score is 0-2 (12%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 54%, against 64% across the Ligue 1. In their last 5 meetings, Le Havre didn't win any, PSG won 4 and 1 ended level; 4 had over 2.5 goals.

PSG to win is the model's clearest call at 71%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.

Who will win Le Havre AC vs Paris Saint-Germain FC?

Paris Saint-Germain FC are clear favourites at 71%, with Le Havre AC at 11%. Recent form: Le Havre AC LLLDLD, Paris Saint-Germain FC WWWWWW (latest first).

Le Havre lost 3 of 4 home games this season.

Le Havre AC

11%

Draw

18%

Paris Saint-Germain FC

71%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 59% and Under 2.5 is 41%.

Over 2.5 in 6 of 7 PSG games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	81%	19%	1.23
2.5 goals	59%	41%	1.69
3.5 goals	37%	63%	2.72

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance: Le Havre AC score in about 56% of simulated outcomes and Paris Saint-Germain FC in about 90%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 6 of 7 PSG games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	54%	1.87
No	46%	2.15

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Le Havre AC win	11%	9.11
Draw	18%	5.51
Paris Saint-Germain FC win	71%	1.41
Over 2.5	59%	1.69
Under 2.5	41%	2.44

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.1 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Le Havre AC goals (rows) × Paris Saint-Germain FC goals (columns)
Le \ Paris	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5%	10%	12%	9%	5%	2%
1	3%	9%	10%	7%	4%	2%
2	1%	3%	4%	3%	2%	1%
3	0%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%
4	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	3% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

0-2

12%

0-1

10%

1-2

10%

0-3

1-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Le Havre and PSG played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Le Havre, last 5

Le Havre, last 5 at home

PSG, last 5

PSG, last 5 away

Current streaks

Le Havre have not won in their last 7 league games.
PSG are unbeaten in their last 4 league games.
PSG have won each of their last 4 league games.
PSG: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
PSG: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
PSG: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Le Havre have lost each of their last 3 league games.

Ligue 1 games only, runs of three or more. Le Havre and PSG.

How Le Havre and PSG compare this season

Stat	Le Havre (home, 4)	PSG (away, 5)	Ligue 1 average
Over 1.5	50% (2/4)	80% (4/5)	80%
Over 2.5	50% (2/4)	80% (4/5)	64%
Over 3.5	25% (1/4)	60% (3/5)	38%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	80% (4/5)	64%
Win %	0% (0/4)	60% (3/5)	44% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	0.50	2.00	1.52
Goals against per game	1.50	1.20	1.52

Ligue 1 average from 64 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Ligue 1 table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Le Havre	18	2	7
PSG	2	14	7

Full Ligue 1 table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Le Havre 0 wins, 1 draw, PSG 4 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 28 Feb 2026	Ligue 1	Le Havre v PSG	0–1
Sat, 22 Nov 2025	Ligue 1	PSG v Le Havre	3–0
Sat, 19 Apr 2025	Ligue 1	PSG v Le Havre	2–1
Fri, 16 Aug 2024	Ligue 1	Le Havre v PSG	1–4
Sat, 27 Apr 2024	Ligue 1	PSG v Le Havre	3–3

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Le Havre v PSG?: Our model makes PSG the more likely winner at 71%: Le Havre 11%, draw 18%, PSG 71%. Le Havre lost 3 of 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Le Havre v PSG?: Over 2.5 goals is 59% and under 2.5 is 41%, with expected goals of 3.1. Over 2.5 in 6 of 7 PSG games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 0-2 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Le Havre and PSG played recently?: Latest first: Le Havre LLLDL, PSG WWWWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Sun, 25 Oct 2026
14:00 · Ligue 1Ligue 1MonacovLille	O1.577%	44%	26%	30%	77%	53%	30%	56%	53%	77%	30%	56%
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1MarseillevLe Havre	O1.579%	66%	20%	14%	79%	56%	34%	54%	56%	79%	34%	54%
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1AuxerrevLe Mans	O1.575%	45%	27%	29%	75%	49%	27%	55%	49%	75%	27%	55%
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1ToulousevTroyes	O1.578%	58%	23%	19%	78%	54%	31%	55%	54%	78%	31%	55%
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1Stade RennaisvStrasbourg	O1.587%	48%	22%	29%	87%	68%	47%	61%	68%	87%	47%	61%
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1Angers SCOvLorient	U3.577%	29%	28%	43%	71%	45%	23%	54%	45%	71%	23%	54%

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