Brasileirão Série A · Fri, 30 Oct 2026, 00:30 UK
Grêmio FBPA vs CA Paranaense prediction (Fri, 30 Oct 2026, 00:30 UK): Grêmio FBPA 35% · Draw 27% · CA Paranaense 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.29–1.39. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 52%, No 48%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Grêmio vs Paranaense preview
Grêmio (18th, 31 pts) host Paranaense (3rd, 53 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Grêmio have taken 3 points from their last 5 games (LDDDL) and Paranaense 8 points from 5 (DLWDW). Paranaense: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 10 league games.
Our model sees little between the sides: Grêmio 35%, Paranaense 39%. Expected goals are 1.29 for Grêmio and 1.39 for Paranaense, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).
The goal markets sit close to the Brasileirão Série A norm: Over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 52%. In their last 5 meetings, Grêmio won 3, Paranaense won 1 and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 52%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.
Who will win Grêmio FBPA vs CA Paranaense?
This is close to a coin flip: Grêmio FBPA 35%, CA Paranaense 39%, with the draw at 27%. Recent form: Grêmio FBPA LDDDLL, CA Paranaense DLWDWD (latest first).
Grêmio have not won in their last 7 league games.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 50% and Under 2.5 is 50%.
Over 2.5 in 9 of 15 Paranaense away games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 75% | 25% | 1.33 |
| 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 1.99 |
| 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | 3.55 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance: Grêmio FBPA score in about 73% of simulated outcomes and CA Paranaense in about 75%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 11 of 16 Grêmio home games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Grêmio FBPA win | 35% | 2.90 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 |
| CA Paranaense win | 39% | 2.58 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.7 total goals.
| Grêmio \ CA | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 1 | 8% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 6% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Grêmio and Paranaense played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Paranaense: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 10 league games.
- Grêmio have not won in their last 7 league games.
- Grêmio: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
- Grêmio: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Grêmio and Paranaense.
How Grêmio and Paranaense compare this season
| Stat | Grêmio (home, 16) | Paranaense (away, 15) | Brasileirão Série A average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 75% (12/16) | 73% (11/15) | 78% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% (8/16) | 60% (9/15) | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% (5/16) | 33% (5/15) | 25% |
| BTTS | 69% (11/16) | 60% (9/15) | 59% |
| Win % | 44% (7/16) | 40% (6/15) | 47% home · 25% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.56 | 1.47 | 1.33 |
| Goals against per game | 1.31 | 1.47 | 1.33 |
Brasileirão Série A average from 310 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.
Brasileirão Série A table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grêmio | 18 | 31 | 31 |
| Paranaense | 3 | 53 | 31 |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Grêmio 3 wins, 1 draw, Paranaense 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 3 May 2026 | Brasileirão Série A | Paranaense v Grêmio | 0–0 |
| Sun, 4 Aug 2024 | Brasileirão Série A | Paranaense v Grêmio | 0–2 |
| Wed, 17 Apr 2024 | Brasileirão Série A | Grêmio v Paranaense | 2–0 |
| Wed, 18 Oct 2023 | Brasileirão Série A | Grêmio v Paranaense | 1–2 |
| Sat, 27 May 2023 | Brasileirão Série A | Paranaense v Grêmio | 1–2 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Grêmio v Paranaense?
- Our model makes Paranaense the more likely winner at 39%: Grêmio 35%, draw 27%, Paranaense 39%. Grêmio have not won in their last 7 league games.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Grêmio v Paranaense?
- Over 2.5 goals is 50% and under 2.5 is 50%, with expected goals of 2.7. Over 2.5 in 9 of 15 Paranaense away games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Grêmio and Paranaense played recently?
- Latest first: Grêmio LDDDL, Paranaense DLWDW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- Grêmio FBPA
- CA Paranaense
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Brasileirão Série A table
- Brasileirão Série A Home win
- Brasileirão Série A Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Mon, 26 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.578% | 38% | 26% | 36% | 54% | 78% | 32% | 53% |
23:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.574% | 62% | 23% | 15% | 49% | 74% | 27% | 49% |
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  Chapecoense | O1.581% | 65% | 20% | 15% | 59% | 81% | 36% | 51% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.576% | 51% | 27% | 23% | 45% | 71% | 24% | 49% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.574% | 22% | 25% | 52% | 49% | 74% | 27% | 51% |
| Thu, 29 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
00:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.574% | 28% | 27% | 45% | 48% | 74% | 26% | 51% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Fri, 30 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18:00 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.581% | 11% | 18% | 71% | 59% | 81% | 37% | 54% |
19:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.580% | 41% | 25% | 34% | 58% | 80% | 35% | 61% |
20:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.581% | 59% | 22% | 19% | 59% | 81% | 37% | 55% |
20:00 · EFL ChampChampionship  | O1.581% | 46% | 24% | 29% | 58% | 81% | 36% | 56% |
20:05 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | U3.574% | 41% | 27% | 32% | 47% | 73% | 26% | 55% |