Santos FC vs SE Palmeiras prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Wed, 28 Oct 2026, 22:30 UK

Santos FC vs SE Palmeiras prediction (Wed, 28 Oct 2026, 22:30 UK): Santos FC 22% · Draw 25% · SE Palmeiras 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 0.99–1.64. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%).

Published Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Santos vs Palmeiras preview

Santos (8th, 45 pts) host Palmeiras (2nd, 66 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Santos have taken 10 points from their last 5 games (WLDWW) and Palmeiras 13 points from 5 (WWWWD). Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.

Our model favours Palmeiras at 52% to Santos's 22%. Expected goals are 0.99 for Santos and 1.64 for Palmeiras, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 51%, against 59% across the Brasileirão Série A. In their last 5 meetings, Santos won 2, Palmeiras won 1 and 2 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Palmeiras to win is the model's clearest call at 52%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Santos FC vs SE Palmeiras?

SE Palmeiras are clear favourites at 52%, with Santos FC at 22%. Recent form: Santos FC WLDWWW, SE Palmeiras WWWWDW (latest first).

Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.

Santos FC

22%

Draw

25%

SE Palmeiras

52%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 49% and Under 2.5 is 51%.

Under 2.5 in 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	74%	26%	1.35
2.5 goals	49%	51%	2.04
3.5 goals	27%	73%	3.70

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: Santos FC score in about 63% of simulated outcomes and SE Palmeiras in about 81%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 23 of 31 Santos games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	51%	1.98
No	49%	2.02

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Santos FC win	22%	4.46
Draw	25%	3.93
SE Palmeiras win	52%	1.92
Over 2.5	49%	2.04
Under 2.5	51%	1.96

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Santos FC goals (rows) × SE Palmeiras goals (columns)
Santos \ SE	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8%	11%	10%	5%	2%	1%
1	7%	12%	10%	5%	2%	1%
2	4%	6%	5%	3%	1%	0%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

0-1

11%

0-2

10%

1-2

10%

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Santos and Palmeiras played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Santos, last 5

Santos, last 5 at home

Palmeiras, last 5

Palmeiras, last 5 away

Current streaks

Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.
Santos: both teams scored in each of their last 7 league games.
Santos: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.
Santos: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.
Palmeiras have won each of their last 3 league games.

Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Santos and Palmeiras.

How Santos and Palmeiras compare this season

Stat	Santos (home, 15)	Palmeiras (away, 16)	Brasileirão Série A average
Over 1.5	93% (14/15)	69% (11/16)	78%
Over 2.5	53% (8/15)	50% (8/16)	51%
Over 3.5	27% (4/15)	31% (5/16)	25%
BTTS	67% (10/15)	50% (8/16)	59%
Win %	40% (6/15)	50% (8/16)	47% home · 25% away
Goals for per game	1.47	1.63	1.33
Goals against per game	1.33	0.75	1.33

Brasileirão Série A average from 310 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.

Brasileirão Série A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Santos	8	45	31
Palmeiras	2	66	31

Full Brasileirão Série A table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Santos 2 wins, 2 draws, Palmeiras 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 2 May 2026	Brasileirão Série A	Palmeiras v Santos	1–1
Sun, 16 Nov 2025	Brasileirão Série A	Santos v Palmeiras	1–0
Fri, 7 Nov 2025	Brasileirão Série A	Palmeiras v Santos	2–0
Sun, 8 Oct 2023	Brasileirão Série A	Palmeiras v Santos	1–2
Sun, 21 May 2023	Brasileirão Série A	Santos v Palmeiras	0–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Santos v Palmeiras?: Our model makes Palmeiras the more likely winner at 52%: Santos 22%, draw 25%, Palmeiras 52%. Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Santos v Palmeiras?: Over 2.5 goals is 49% and under 2.5 is 51%, with expected goals of 2.6. Under 2.5 in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Santos and Palmeiras played recently?: Latest first: Santos WLDWW, Palmeiras WWWWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Mon, 26 Oct 2026
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série ACoritibavGrêmio	O1.578%	38%	26%	36%	78%	54%	32%	53%	54%	78%	32%	53%
23:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AFlamengovMineiro	O1.574%	62%	23%	15%	74%	49%	27%	49%	49%	74%	27%	49%
Wed, 28 Oct 2026
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série ABragantinovChapecoense	O1.581%	65%	20%	15%	81%	59%	36%	51%	59%	81%	36%	51%
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AFluminensevInternacional	U3.576%	51%	27%	23%	71%	45%	24%	49%	45%	71%	24%	49%
Thu, 29 Oct 2026
00:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AClube do RemovBotafogo	U3.574%	28%	27%	45%	74%	48%	26%	51%	48%	74%	26%	51%
00:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série ABahiavSão Paulo	U3.578%	44%	28%	28%	70%	43%	22%	50%	43%	70%	22%	50%

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