Serie A · Wed, 28 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK
Genoa CFC vs Juventus FC prediction (Wed, 28 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): Genoa CFC 23% · Draw 28% · Juventus FC 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%. Most likely score: 0-1. Expected goals 0.88–1.40. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 49%, No 51%. Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Genoa vs Juventus preview
Genoa (17th, 4 pts) host Juventus (8th, 11 pts) in the Serie A. Genoa have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (LWLDL) and Juventus 5 points from 5 (LDWLD). Juventus: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.
Our model favours Juventus at 49% to Genoa's 23%. Expected goals are 0.88 for Genoa and 1.40 for Juventus, and the most likely score is 0-1 (14%).
The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 60%, while 61% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Genoa didn't win any, Juventus won 4 and 1 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.
Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 60%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win Genoa CFC vs Juventus FC?
Juventus FC are favoured at 49%, but the draw and a Genoa CFC win together still account for 51%. Recent form: Genoa CFC LWLDLL, Juventus FC LDWLDW (latest first).
Juventus won 4 of 5 of the last 5 meetings.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 60%; Over 2.5 is 40%.
Under 2.5 in 5 of 7 Juventus games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 67% | 33% | 1.49 |
| 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% | 2.50 |
| 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | 5.07 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance: Genoa CFC score in about 59% of simulated outcomes and Juventus FC in about 75%, and both need to happen.
Model expects 2.3 total goals.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 49% | 2.06 |
| No | 51% | 1.95 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 23% | 4.29 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 |
| Juventus FC win | 49% | 2.06 |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.3 total goals.
| Genoa \ Juventus | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 14% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 0% |
| 1 | 9% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 4% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Genoa and Juventus played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Juventus: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.
- Genoa: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Genoa and Juventus.
How Genoa and Juventus compare this season
| Stat | Genoa (home, 4) | Juventus (away, 3) | Serie A average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 100% (4/4) | 67% (2/3) | 85% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% (2/4) | 33% (1/3) | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% (1/4) | 33% (1/3) | 31% |
| BTTS | 75% (3/4) | 67% (2/3) | 58% |
| Win % | 25% (1/4) | 33% (1/3) | 48% home · 35% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.49 |
| Goals against per game | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.49 |
Serie A average from 71 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Serie A table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 17 | 4 | 7 |
| Juventus | 8 | 11 | 7 |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Genoa 0 wins, 1 draw, Juventus 4 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 5; both teams scored in 0 of 5.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 6 Apr 2026 | Serie A | Juventus v Genoa | 2–0 |
| Sun, 31 Aug 2025 | Serie A | Genoa v Juventus | 0–1 |
| Sat, 29 Mar 2025 | Serie A | Juventus v Genoa | 1–0 |
| Sat, 28 Sept 2024 | Serie A | Genoa v Juventus | 0–3 |
| Sun, 17 Mar 2024 | Serie A | Juventus v Genoa | 0–0 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Genoa v Juventus?
- Our model makes Juventus the more likely winner at 49%: Genoa 23%, draw 28%, Juventus 49%. Juventus won 4 of 5 of the last 5 meetings.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Genoa v Juventus?
- Over 2.5 goals is 40% and under 2.5 is 60%, with expected goals of 2.3. Under 2.5 in 5 of 7 Juventus games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 0-1 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Genoa and Juventus played recently?
- Latest first: Genoa LWLDL, Juventus LDWLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- Genoa CFC
- Juventus FC
- Serie A predictions
- Serie A table
- Serie A Home win
- Serie A Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Serie A predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11:30 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.586% | 72% | 17% | 11% | 67% | 86% | 46% | 53% |
14:00 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.579% | 56% | 23% | 20% | 56% | 79% | 34% | 53% |
14:00 · Serie ASerie A  | U3.575% | 39% | 28% | 33% | 46% | 72% | 25% | 51% |
17:00 · Serie ASerie A  | U3.582% | 18% | 28% | 54% | 37% | 65% | 18% | 47% |
19:45 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.575% | 26% | 26% | 48% | 49% | 75% | 27% | 52% |
| Tue, 27 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
17:30 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.576% | 32% | 27% | 41% | 51% | 76% | 29% | 53% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
17:30 · Serie ASerie A | O1.574% | 53% | 25% | 22% | 48% | 74% | 27% | 51% |
| 17:30 · Serie ASerie A | O1.585% | 18% | 20% | 61% | 65% | 85% | 43% | 55% |
17:30 · Serie ASerie A | U3.581% | 37% | 30% | 33% | 39% | 66% | 19% | 49% |
19:45 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.575% | 25% | 26% | 49% | 50% | 75% | 28% | 52% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  Chapecoense | O1.581% | 65% | 20% | 15% | 59% | 81% | 36% | 51% |