prediction
Brasileirão Série A · Wed, 28 Oct 2026, 22:30 UK
RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense AF prediction (Wed, 28 Oct 2026, 22:30 UK): RB Bragantino 65% · Draw 20% · Chapecoense AF 15%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 2-0. Expected goals 2.12–0.92. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Bragantino vs Chapecoense preview
Bragantino (10th, 41 pts) host Chapecoense (20th, 18 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Bragantino have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (LDWDL) and Chapecoense 4 points from 5 (WLLLD). Chapecoense have not won in their last 5 league games.
Our model makes Bragantino clear favourites at 65%, with Chapecoense at 15%. Expected goals are 2.12 for Bragantino and 0.92 for Chapecoense, and the most likely score is 2-0 (11%).
The goal markets sit close to the Brasileirão Série A norm: Over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 51%. In their last 3 meetings, Bragantino won 2 and Chapecoense won 1; all had over 2.5 goals.
Bragantino to win is the model's clearest call at 65%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense AF?
RB Bragantino are clear favourites at 65%, with Chapecoense AF at 15%. Recent form: RB Bragantino LDWDLL, Chapecoense AF WLLLDL (latest first).
Chapecoense lost 11 of 16 away games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 59% and Under 2.5 is 41%.
Over 2.5 in 3 of the last 3 meetings.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 81% | 19% | 1.23 |
| 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | 1.70 |
| 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | 2.76 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: RB Bragantino score in about 88% of simulated outcomes and Chapecoense AF in about 61%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 19 of 30 Chapecoense games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 51% | 1.94 |
| No | 49% | 2.06 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| RB Bragantino win | 65% | 1.55 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.90 |
| Chapecoense AF win | 15% | 6.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.42 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 3.0 total goals.
| RB \ Chapecoense | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 1 | 10% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 2 | 11% | 10% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 3 | 8% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Bragantino and Chapecoense played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Chapecoense have not won in their last 5 league games.
- Chapecoense have lost each of their last 3 league games.
- Bragantino: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
- Bragantino: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
- Bragantino are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.
Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Bragantino and Chapecoense.
How Bragantino and Chapecoense compare this season
| Stat | Bragantino (home, 15) | Chapecoense (away, 16) | Brasileirão Série A average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 73% (11/15) | 88% (14/16) | 78% |
| Over 2.5 | 47% (7/15) | 44% (7/16) | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% (4/15) | 19% (3/16) | 25% |
| BTTS | 53% (8/15) | 56% (9/16) | 59% |
| Win % | 47% (7/15) | 6% (1/16) | 47% home · 25% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.60 | 0.69 | 1.33 |
| Goals against per game | 1.13 | 1.81 | 1.33 |
Brasileirão Série A average from 310 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.
Brasileirão Série A table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bragantino | 10 | 41 | 31 |
| Chapecoense | 20 | 18 | 30 |
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Bragantino 2 wins, 0 draws, Chapecoense 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 3; both teams scored in 2 of 3.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 3 May 2026 | Brasileirão Série A | Chapecoense v Bragantino | 1–2 |
| Sat, 11 Sept 2021 | Brasileirão Série A | Bragantino v Chapecoense | 1–2 |
| Sun, 30 May 2021 | Brasileirão Série A | Chapecoense v Bragantino | 0–3 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Bragantino v Chapecoense?
- Our model makes Bragantino the more likely winner at 65%: Bragantino 65%, draw 20%, Chapecoense 15%. Chapecoense lost 11 of 16 away games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bragantino v Chapecoense?
- Over 2.5 goals is 59% and under 2.5 is 41%, with expected goals of 3.0. Over 2.5 in 3 of the last 3 meetings.
- What is the most likely score?
- 2-0 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Bragantino and Chapecoense played recently?
- Latest first: Bragantino LDWDL, Chapecoense WLLLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- RB Bragantino
- Chapecoense AF
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Brasileirão Série A table
- Brasileirão Série A Home win
- Brasileirão Série A Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Mon, 26 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.578% | 38% | 26% | 36% | 54% | 78% | 32% | 53% |
23:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.574% | 62% | 23% | 15% | 49% | 74% | 27% | 49% |
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.576% | 51% | 27% | 23% | 45% | 71% | 24% | 49% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.574% | 22% | 25% | 52% | 49% | 74% | 27% | 51% |
| Thu, 29 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
00:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.574% | 28% | 27% | 45% | 48% | 74% | 26% | 51% |
00:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.578% | 44% | 28% | 28% | 43% | 70% | 22% | 50% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
17:30 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.574% | 53% | 25% | 22% | 48% | 74% | 27% | 51% |
17:30 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.585% | 18% | 20% | 61% | 65% | 85% | 43% | 55% |
17:30 · Serie ASerie A  | U3.581% | 37% | 30% | 33% | 39% | 66% | 19% | 49% |
19:45 · Serie ASerie A  | U3.580% | 23% | 28% | 49% | 40% | 67% | 20% | 49% |
19:45 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.575% | 25% | 26% | 49% | 50% | 75% | 28% | 52% |