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EC Bahia crest EC Bahia vs São Paulo FC São Paulo FC crest prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Thu, 29 Oct 2026, 00:30 UK

EC Bahia vs São Paulo FC prediction (Thu, 29 Oct 2026, 00:30 UK): EC Bahia 44% · Draw 28% · São Paulo FC 28%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.36–1.05. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 50%, No 50%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (9%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Bahia vs São Paulo preview

Bahia (7th, 49 pts) host São Paulo (9th, 42 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Bahia have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (LWLLW) and São Paulo 7 points from 5 (DWWLL). Bahia: at least one side failed to score in each of their last 3 league games.

Our model favours Bahia at 44% to São Paulo's 28%. Expected goals are 1.36 for Bahia and 1.05 for São Paulo, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 50%, against 59% across the Brasileirão Série A. In their last 5 meetings, Bahia won 1, São Paulo won 3 and 1 ended level; 4 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 57%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win EC Bahia vs São Paulo FC?

EC Bahia are favoured at 44%, but the draw and a São Paulo FC win together still account for 56%. Recent form: EC Bahia LWLLWW, São Paulo FC DWWLLW (latest first).

São Paulo lost 10 of 15 away games this season.

EC Bahia44%
Draw28%
São Paulo FC28%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 57%; Over 2.5 is 43%.

Under 2.5 in 10 of 15 São Paulo away games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals70%30%1.43
2.5 goals43%57%2.31
3.5 goals22%78%4.47

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance: EC Bahia score in about 74% of simulated outcomes and São Paulo FC in about 65%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes50%2.01
No50%1.99

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
EC Bahia win44%2.29
Draw28%3.56
São Paulo FC win28%3.53
Over 2.543%2.31
Under 2.557%1.76

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: EC Bahia goals (rows) × São Paulo FC goals (columns)
EC \ São012345
09%9%5%2%0%0%
112%13%7%2%1%0%
28%9%5%2%0%0%
34%4%2%1%0%0%
41%1%1%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-113%
1-012%
0-09%
0-19%
2-19%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Bahia and São Paulo played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Bahia, last 5
  1. L 0–3 v Flamengo
  2. W 1–0 v Mirassol
  3. L 0–1 at Palmeiras
  4. L 1–2 at Paranaense
  5. W 2–1 v Clube do Remo
Bahia, last 5 at home
  1. L 0–3 v Flamengo
  2. W 1–0 v Mirassol
  3. W 2–1 v Clube do Remo
  4. W 3–2 v Internacional
  5. D 0–0 v Vasco da Gama
São Paulo, last 5
  1. D 1–1 at Mirassol
  2. W 1–0 v Vasco da Gama
  3. W 2–1 v Vitória
  4. L 0–2 at Cruzeiro
  5. L 1–2 v Santos
São Paulo, last 5 away
  1. D 1–1 at Mirassol
  2. L 0–2 at Cruzeiro
  3. L 0–2 at Palmeiras
  4. L 0–1 at Chapecoense
  5. L 1–2 at Grêmio

Current streaks

Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Bahia and São Paulo.

How Bahia and São Paulo compare this season

StatBahia (home, 16)São Paulo (away, 15)Brasileirão Série A average
Over 1.588% (14/16)73% (11/15)78%
Over 2.550% (8/16)33% (5/15)51%
Over 3.513% (2/16)7% (1/15)25%
BTTS63% (10/16)53% (8/15)59%
Win %44% (7/16)13% (2/15)47% home · 25% away
Goals for per game1.440.731.33
Goals against per game1.061.471.33

Brasileirão Série A average from 310 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.

Brasileirão Série A table

TeamPosPtsP
Bahia74931
São Paulo94231

Full Brasileirão Série A table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Bahia 1 win, 1 draw, São Paulo 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sun, 3 May 2026Brasileirão Série ASão Paulo v Bahia2–2
Sun, 26 Oct 2025Brasileirão Série ASão Paulo v Bahia2–0
Sat, 31 May 2025Brasileirão Série ABahia v São Paulo2–1
Wed, 6 Nov 2024Brasileirão Série ABahia v São Paulo0–3
Sun, 30 Jun 2024Brasileirão Série ASão Paulo v Bahia3–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Bahia v São Paulo?
Our model makes Bahia the more likely winner at 44%: Bahia 44%, draw 28%, São Paulo 28%. São Paulo lost 10 of 15 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bahia v São Paulo?
Over 2.5 goals is 43% and under 2.5 is 57%, with expected goals of 2.4. Under 2.5 in 10 of 15 São Paulo away games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Bahia and São Paulo played recently?
Latest first: Bahia LWLLW, São Paulo DWWLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions
Mon, 26 Oct 2026
22:30 · BrasileirãoCoritiba FBC crestCoritibaGrêmio FBPA crestGrêmioO1.578%38%26%36%54%78%32%53%
23:00 · BrasileirãoCR Flamengo crestFlamengoCA Mineiro crestMineiroO1.574%62%23%15%49%74%27%49%
Wed, 28 Oct 2026
22:30 · BrasileirãoRB Bragantino crestBragantinoChapecoense AF crestChapecoenseO1.581%65%20%15%59%81%36%51%
22:30 · BrasileirãoFluminense FC crestFluminenseSC Internacional crestInternacionalU3.576%51%27%23%45%71%24%49%
22:30 · BrasileirãoSantos FC crestSantosSE Palmeiras crestPalmeirasO1.574%22%25%52%49%74%27%51%
Thu, 29 Oct 2026
00:30 · BrasileirãoClube do Remo crestClube do RemoBotafogo FR crestBotafogoU3.574%28%27%45%48%74%26%51%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Thu, 29 Oct 2026
17:30 · Serie AFrosinone Calcio crestFrosinoneUS Lecce crestLecceU3.578%54%26%20%43%70%22%49%
19:45 · Serie AACF Fiorentina crestFiorentinaAtalanta BC crestAtalantaO1.576%32%26%42%52%76%30%53%
22:30 · BrasileirãoCA Mineiro crestMineiroCruzeiro EC crestCruzeiroU3.578%38%28%33%43%70%22%50%
23:00 · BrasileirãoCR Vasco da Gama crestVasco da GamaCR Flamengo crestFlamengoO1.578%19%23%58%55%78%32%52%