Brasileirão Série A · Thu, 29 Oct 2026, 23:00 UK
CR Vasco da Gama vs CR Flamengo prediction (Thu, 29 Oct 2026, 23:00 UK): CR Vasco da Gama 19% · Draw 23% · CR Flamengo 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 0.99–1.88. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 52%, No 48%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 0-1 (10%), 0-2 (10%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo preview
Vasco da Gama (15th, 35 pts) host Flamengo (1st, 67 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Vasco da Gama have taken 10 points from their last 5 games (LDWWW) and Flamengo 13 points from 5 (WWDWW). Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.
Our model makes Flamengo clear favourites at 58%, with Vasco da Gama at 19%. Expected goals are 0.99 for Vasco da Gama and 1.88 for Flamengo, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).
The goal markets sit close to the Brasileirão Série A norm: Over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 52%. In their last 5 meetings, Vasco da Gama didn't win any, Flamengo won 1 and 4 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Flamengo to win is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win CR Vasco da Gama vs CR Flamengo?
CR Flamengo are clear favourites at 58%, with CR Vasco da Gama at 19%. Recent form: CR Vasco da Gama LDWWWL, CR Flamengo WWDWWW (latest first).
Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 55% and Under 2.5 is 45%.
Over 2.5 in 11 of 16 Flamengo away games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 78% | 22% | 1.28 |
| 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | 1.83 |
| 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | 3.10 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance: CR Vasco da Gama score in about 63% of simulated outcomes and CR Flamengo in about 85%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 18 of 30 Vasco da Gama games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 52% | 1.94 |
| No | 48% | 2.06 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| CR Vasco da Gama win | 19% | 5.21 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.34 |
| CR Flamengo win | 58% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.20 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.9 total goals.
| CR \ CR | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 10% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| 1 | 5% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| 2 | 3% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 3 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Vasco da Gama and Flamengo played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.
Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Vasco da Gama and Flamengo.
How Vasco da Gama and Flamengo compare this season
| Stat | Vasco da Gama (home, 15) | Flamengo (away, 16) | Brasileirão Série A average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 73% (11/15) | 88% (14/16) | 78% |
| Over 2.5 | 60% (9/15) | 69% (11/16) | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% (3/15) | 25% (4/16) | 25% |
| BTTS | 53% (8/15) | 56% (9/16) | 59% |
| Win % | 47% (7/15) | 56% (9/16) | 47% home · 25% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.40 | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals against per game | 1.20 | 0.94 | 1.33 |
Brasileirão Série A average from 310 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.
Brasileirão Série A table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco da Gama | 15 | 35 | 30 |
| Flamengo | 1 | 67 | 31 |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Vasco da Gama 0 wins, 4 draws, Flamengo 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 4 of 5.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 3 May 2026 | Brasileirão Série A | Flamengo v Vasco da Gama | 2–2 |
| Sun, 21 Sept 2025 | Brasileirão Série A | Flamengo v Vasco da Gama | 1–1 |
| Sat, 19 Apr 2025 | Brasileirão Série A | Vasco da Gama v Flamengo | 0–0 |
| Sun, 15 Sept 2024 | Brasileirão Série A | Flamengo v Vasco da Gama | 1–1 |
| Sun, 2 Jun 2024 | Brasileirão Série A | Vasco da Gama v Flamengo | 1–6 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Vasco da Gama v Flamengo?
- Our model makes Flamengo the more likely winner at 58%: Vasco da Gama 19%, draw 23%, Flamengo 58%. Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Vasco da Gama v Flamengo?
- Over 2.5 goals is 55% and under 2.5 is 45%, with expected goals of 2.9. Over 2.5 in 11 of 16 Flamengo away games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Vasco da Gama and Flamengo played recently?
- Latest first: Vasco da Gama LDWWW, Flamengo WWDWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- CR Vasco da Gama
- CR Flamengo
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Brasileirão Série A table
- Brasileirão Série A Home win
- Brasileirão Série A Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Mon, 26 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.578% | 38% | 26% | 36% | 54% | 78% | 32% | 53% |
23:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.574% | 62% | 23% | 15% | 49% | 74% | 27% | 49% |
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  Chapecoense | O1.581% | 65% | 20% | 15% | 59% | 81% | 36% | 51% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.576% | 51% | 27% | 23% | 45% | 71% | 24% | 49% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.574% | 22% | 25% | 52% | 49% | 74% | 27% | 51% |
| Thu, 29 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
00:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.574% | 28% | 27% | 45% | 48% | 74% | 26% | 51% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Thu, 29 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.578% | 44% | 28% | 28% | 43% | 70% | 22% | 50% |
17:30 · Serie ASerie A  | U3.578% | 54% | 26% | 20% | 43% | 70% | 22% | 49% |
19:45 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.576% | 32% | 26% | 42% | 52% | 76% | 30% | 53% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A | U3.578% | 38% | 28% | 33% | 43% | 70% | 22% | 50% |