Serie A · Thu, 29 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK
ACF Fiorentina vs Atalanta BC prediction (Thu, 29 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): ACF Fiorentina 32% · Draw 26% · Atalanta BC 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.27–1.48. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 53%, No 47%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta preview
Fiorentina (18th, 4 pts) host Atalanta (11th, 9 pts) in the Serie A. Fiorentina have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (LLDWL) and Atalanta 3 points from 5 (LWLLL). Fiorentina: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 9 league games.
Our model sees little between the sides: Fiorentina 32%, Atalanta 42%. Expected goals are 1.27 for Fiorentina and 1.48 for Atalanta, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).
Over 2.5 goals is 52%, below the Serie A rate of 61%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Serie A match. In their last 5 meetings, Fiorentina won 2, Atalanta won 2 and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 53%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.
Who will win ACF Fiorentina vs Atalanta BC?
Atalanta BC are favoured at 42%, but the draw and a ACF Fiorentina win together still account for 58%. Recent form: ACF Fiorentina LLDWLL, Atalanta BC LWLLLW (latest first).
Fiorentina lost 3 of 4 home games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 52% and Under 2.5 is 48%.
Over 2.5 in 6 of 7 Fiorentina games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 76% | 24% | 1.31 |
| 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | 1.93 |
| 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | 3.37 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance: ACF Fiorentina score in about 72% of simulated outcomes and Atalanta BC in about 77%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 3 of 4 Fiorentina home games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.13 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 32% | 3.12 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 |
| Atalanta BC win | 42% | 2.40 |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.8 total goals.
| ACF \ Atalanta | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 1 | 8% | 12% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% |
| 2 | 5% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Fiorentina and Atalanta played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Fiorentina: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 9 league games.
- Fiorentina: both teams scored in each of their last 5 league games.
- Atalanta: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
- Fiorentina have not won in their last 3 league games.
Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Fiorentina and Atalanta.
How Fiorentina and Atalanta compare this season
| Stat | Fiorentina (home, 4) | Atalanta (away, 3) | Serie A average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 100% (4/4) | 100% (3/3) | 85% |
| Over 2.5 | 75% (3/4) | 67% (2/3) | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% (1/4) | 33% (1/3) | 31% |
| BTTS | 75% (3/4) | 67% (2/3) | 58% |
| Win % | 0% (0/4) | 0% (0/3) | 48% home · 35% away |
| Goals for per game | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.49 |
| Goals against per game | 2.25 | 2.33 | 1.49 |
Serie A average from 71 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Serie A table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 18 | 4 | 7 |
| Atalanta | 11 | 9 | 7 |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Fiorentina 2 wins, 1 draw, Atalanta 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 22 May 2026 | Serie A | Fiorentina v Atalanta | 1–1 |
| Sun, 30 Nov 2025 | Serie A | Atalanta v Fiorentina | 2–0 |
| Sun, 30 Mar 2025 | Serie A | Fiorentina v Atalanta | 1–0 |
| Sun, 15 Sept 2024 | Serie A | Atalanta v Fiorentina | 3–2 |
| Sun, 2 Jun 2024 | Serie A | Atalanta v Fiorentina | 2–3 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Fiorentina v Atalanta?
- Our model makes Atalanta the more likely winner at 42%: Fiorentina 32%, draw 26%, Atalanta 42%. Fiorentina lost 3 of 4 home games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fiorentina v Atalanta?
- Over 2.5 goals is 52% and under 2.5 is 48%, with expected goals of 2.8. Over 2.5 in 6 of 7 Fiorentina games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Fiorentina and Atalanta played recently?
- Latest first: Fiorentina LLDWL, Atalanta LWLLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- ACF Fiorentina
- Atalanta BC
- Serie A predictions
- Serie A table
- Serie A Home win
- Serie A Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Serie A predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11:30 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.586% | 72% | 17% | 11% | 67% | 86% | 46% | 53% |
14:00 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.579% | 56% | 23% | 20% | 56% | 79% | 34% | 53% |
14:00 · Serie ASerie A  | U3.575% | 39% | 28% | 33% | 46% | 72% | 25% | 51% |
17:00 · Serie ASerie A  | U3.582% | 18% | 28% | 54% | 37% | 65% | 18% | 47% |
19:45 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.575% | 26% | 26% | 48% | 49% | 75% | 27% | 52% |
| Tue, 27 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
17:30 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.576% | 32% | 27% | 41% | 51% | 76% | 29% | 53% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Thu, 29 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.574% | 28% | 27% | 45% | 48% | 74% | 26% | 51% |
00:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.578% | 44% | 28% | 28% | 43% | 70% | 22% | 50% |
| 17:30 · Serie ASerie A | U3.578% | 54% | 26% | 20% | 43% | 70% | 22% | 49% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.578% | 38% | 28% | 33% | 43% | 70% | 22% | 50% |
23:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.578% | 19% | 23% | 58% | 55% | 78% | 32% | 52% |