Frosinone Calcio vs US Lecce prediction

Serie A · Thu, 29 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK

Frosinone Calcio vs US Lecce prediction (Thu, 29 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK): Frosinone Calcio 54% · Draw 26% · US Lecce 20%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.56–0.85. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 49%, No 51%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%).

Published Thu, 22 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Frosinone vs Lecce preview

Frosinone (6th, 13 pts) host Lecce (12th, 9 pts) in the Serie A. Frosinone have taken 10 points from their last 5 games (WLWDW) and Lecce 6 points from 5 (WLLWL). Frosinone: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.

Our model makes Frosinone clear favourites at 54%, with Lecce at 20%. Expected goals are 1.56 for Frosinone and 0.85 for Lecce, and the most likely score is 1-0 (14%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 57%, while 61% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Frosinone didn't win any, Lecce won 2 and 2 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 57%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Frosinone Calcio vs US Lecce?

Frosinone Calcio are clear favourites at 54%, with US Lecce at 20%. Recent form: Frosinone Calcio WLWDWW, US Lecce WLLWLL (latest first).

Frosinone won 3 of 4 home games this season.

Frosinone Calcio

54%

Draw

26%

US Lecce

20%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 57%; Over 2.5 is 43%.

Under 2.5 in 13 of 19 Lecce away games last season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	70%	30%	1.43
2.5 goals	43%	57%	2.31
3.5 goals	22%	78%	4.48

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance: Frosinone Calcio score in about 79% of simulated outcomes and US Lecce in about 57%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	49%	2.04
No	51%	1.96

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Frosinone Calcio win	54%	1.86
Draw	26%	3.81
US Lecce win	20%	5.03
Over 2.5	43%	2.31
Under 2.5	57%	1.76

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Frosinone Calcio goals (rows) × US Lecce goals (columns)
Frosinone \ US	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9%	7%	3%	1%	0%	0%
1	14%	12%	5%	1%	0%	0%
2	11%	9%	4%	1%	0%	0%
3	6%	5%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-0

14%

1-1

12%

2-0

11%

0-0

2-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Frosinone and Lecce played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Frosinone, last 5

Frosinone, last 5 at home

Lecce, last 5

Lecce, last 5 away

Current streaks

Frosinone: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.
Lecce: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Lecce: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Frosinone and Lecce.

How Frosinone and Lecce compare this season

Stat	Frosinone (home, 4)	Lecce (away, 4)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	75% (3/4)	85%
Over 2.5	50% (2/4)	50% (2/4)	61%
Over 3.5	50% (2/4)	0% (0/4)	31%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	0% (0/4)	58%
Win %	75% (3/4)	50% (2/4)	48% home · 35% away
Goals for per game	2.25	1.25	1.49
Goals against per game	1.25	1.00	1.49

Serie A average from 71 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Frosinone	6	13	7
Lecce	12	9	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Frosinone 0 wins, 2 draws, Lecce 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 3 Mar 2024	Serie A	Frosinone v Lecce	1–1
Sat, 16 Dec 2023	Serie A	Lecce v Frosinone	2–1
Sat, 2 Apr 2022	I2	Lecce v Frosinone	1–0
Sat, 20 Nov 2021	I2	Frosinone v Lecce	0–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Frosinone v Lecce?: Our model makes Frosinone the more likely winner at 54%: Frosinone 54%, draw 26%, Lecce 20%. Frosinone won 3 of 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Frosinone v Lecce?: Over 2.5 goals is 43% and under 2.5 is 57%, with expected goals of 2.4. Under 2.5 in 13 of 19 Lecce away games last season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-0 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Frosinone and Lecce played recently?: Latest first: Frosinone WLWDW, Lecce WLLWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie ASerie AIntervFiorentina	O1.586%	72%	17%	11%	86%	67%	46%	53%	67%	86%	46%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AAtalantavFrosinone	O1.579%	56%	23%	20%	79%	56%	34%	53%	56%	79%	34%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AGenoavVenezia	U3.575%	39%	28%	33%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
17:00 · Serie ASerie ALeccevJuventus	U3.582%	18%	28%	54%	65%	37%	18%	47%	37%	65%	18%	47%
19:45 · Serie ASerie AUdinesevMilan	O1.575%	26%	26%	48%	75%	49%	27%	52%	49%	75%	27%	52%
Tue, 27 Oct 2026
17:30 · Serie ASerie ASassuolovLazio	O1.576%	32%	27%	41%	76%	51%	29%	53%	51%	76%	29%	53%

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