Brasileirão Série A · Thu, 29 Oct 2026, 22:30 UK
CA Mineiro vs Cruzeiro EC prediction (Thu, 29 Oct 2026, 22:30 UK): CA Mineiro 38% · Draw 28% · Cruzeiro EC 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.25–1.16. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 50%, No 50%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Mineiro vs Cruzeiro preview
Mineiro (6th, 50 pts) host Cruzeiro (4th, 51 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Mineiro have taken 11 points from their last 5 games (WWDWD) and Cruzeiro 12 points from 5 (WWLWW). Mineiro are unbeaten in their last 6 league games.
Our model sees little between the sides: Mineiro 38%, Cruzeiro 33%. Expected goals are 1.25 for Mineiro and 1.16 for Cruzeiro, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).
Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 50%, against 59% across the Brasileirão Série A. In their last 5 meetings, Mineiro won 2, Cruzeiro didn't win any and 3 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 57%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win CA Mineiro vs Cruzeiro EC?
This is close to a coin flip: CA Mineiro 38%, Cruzeiro EC 33%, with the draw at 28%. Recent form: CA Mineiro WWDWDW, Cruzeiro EC WWLWWL (latest first).
Mineiro won 10 of 16 home games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 57%; Over 2.5 is 43%.
Under 2.5 in 14 of 19 Cruzeiro away games last season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 70% | 30% | 1.43 |
| 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | 2.31 |
| 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | 4.49 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance: CA Mineiro score in about 71% of simulated outcomes and Cruzeiro EC in about 69%, and both need to happen.
Model expects 2.4 total goals.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 2.00 |
| No | 50% | 2.00 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| CA Mineiro win | 38% | 2.63 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.51 |
| Cruzeiro EC win | 33% | 2.99 |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.4 total goals.
| CA \ Cruzeiro | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 1 | 11% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 7% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Mineiro and Cruzeiro played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Mineiro are unbeaten in their last 6 league games.
Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Mineiro and Cruzeiro.
How Mineiro and Cruzeiro compare this season
| Stat | Mineiro (home, 16) | Cruzeiro (away, 16) | Brasileirão Série A average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 75% (12/16) | 88% (14/16) | 78% |
| Over 2.5 | 56% (9/16) | 75% (12/16) | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% (5/16) | 44% (7/16) | 25% |
| BTTS | 63% (10/16) | 75% (12/16) | 59% |
| Win % | 63% (10/16) | 44% (7/16) | 47% home · 25% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.69 | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals against per game | 1.06 | 1.88 | 1.33 |
Brasileirão Série A average from 310 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.
Brasileirão Série A table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mineiro | 6 | 50 | 31 |
| Cruzeiro | 4 | 51 | 31 |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Mineiro 2 wins, 3 draws, Cruzeiro 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 3 May 2026 | Brasileirão Série A | Cruzeiro v Mineiro | 1–3 |
| Thu, 16 Oct 2025 | Brasileirão Série A | Mineiro v Cruzeiro | 1–1 |
| Mon, 19 May 2025 | Brasileirão Série A | Cruzeiro v Mineiro | 0–0 |
| Sun, 11 Aug 2024 | Brasileirão Série A | Cruzeiro v Mineiro | 0–0 |
| Sun, 21 Apr 2024 | Brasileirão Série A | Mineiro v Cruzeiro | 3–0 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Mineiro v Cruzeiro?
- Our model makes Mineiro the more likely winner at 38%: Mineiro 38%, draw 28%, Cruzeiro 33%. Mineiro won 10 of 16 home games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Mineiro v Cruzeiro?
- Over 2.5 goals is 43% and under 2.5 is 57%, with expected goals of 2.4. Under 2.5 in 14 of 19 Cruzeiro away games last season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Mineiro and Cruzeiro played recently?
- Latest first: Mineiro WWDWD, Cruzeiro WWLWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- CA Mineiro
- Cruzeiro EC
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Brasileirão Série A table
- Brasileirão Série A Home win
- Brasileirão Série A Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Mon, 26 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.578% | 38% | 26% | 36% | 54% | 78% | 32% | 53% |
23:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.574% | 62% | 23% | 15% | 49% | 74% | 27% | 49% |
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  Chapecoense | O1.581% | 65% | 20% | 15% | 59% | 81% | 36% | 51% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.576% | 51% | 27% | 23% | 45% | 71% | 24% | 49% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.574% | 22% | 25% | 52% | 49% | 74% | 27% | 51% |
| Thu, 29 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
00:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.574% | 28% | 27% | 45% | 48% | 74% | 26% | 51% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Thu, 29 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.578% | 44% | 28% | 28% | 43% | 70% | 22% | 50% |
17:30 · Serie ASerie A  | U3.578% | 54% | 26% | 20% | 43% | 70% | 22% | 49% |
19:45 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.576% | 32% | 26% | 42% | 52% | 76% | 30% | 53% |
23:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A | O1.578% | 19% | 23% | 58% | 55% | 78% | 32% | 52% |