AC Monza vs SSC Napoli prediction

Serie A · Wed, 28 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK

AC Monza vs SSC Napoli prediction (Wed, 28 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): AC Monza 25% · Draw 26% · SSC Napoli 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.07–1.61. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 52%, No 48%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%).

Published Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Monza vs Napoli preview

Monza (14th, 7 pts) host Napoli (9th, 10 pts) in the Serie A. Monza have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (LWLWL) and Napoli 7 points from 5 (DWLLW). Monza: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 13 league games.

Our model favours Napoli at 49% to Monza's 25%. Expected goals are 1.07 for Monza and 1.61 for Napoli, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

Over 2.5 goals is 50%, below the Serie A rate of 61%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Serie A match. In their last 5 meetings, Monza won 1, Napoli won 3 and 1 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 52%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win AC Monza vs SSC Napoli?

SSC Napoli are favoured at 49%, but the draw and a AC Monza win together still account for 51%. Recent form: AC Monza LWLWLD, SSC Napoli DWLLWD (latest first).

Napoli won 3 of 5 of the last 5 meetings.

AC Monza

25%

Draw

26%

SSC Napoli

49%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 50% and Under 2.5 is 50%.

Over 2.5 in all 3 Monza home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	75%	25%	1.33
2.5 goals	50%	50%	2.00
3.5 goals	28%	72%	3.56

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance: AC Monza score in about 66% of simulated outcomes and SSC Napoli in about 80%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 7 of 8 Monza games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	52%	1.93
No	48%	2.08

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
AC Monza win	25%	4.01
Draw	26%	3.89
SSC Napoli win	49%	2.03
Over 2.5	50%	2.00
Under 2.5	50%	2.00

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: AC Monza goals (rows) × SSC Napoli goals (columns)
AC \ SSC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7%	11%	9%	5%	2%	1%
1	7%	12%	10%	5%	2%	1%
2	4%	6%	5%	3%	1%	0%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

0-1

11%

1-2

10%

0-2

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Monza and Napoli played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Monza, last 5

Monza, last 5 at home

Napoli, last 5

Napoli, last 5 away

Current streaks

Monza: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 13 league games.
Monza: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Monza and Napoli.

How Monza and Napoli compare this season

Stat	Monza (home, 3)	Napoli (away, 4)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	75% (3/4)	85%
Over 2.5	100% (3/3)	25% (1/4)	61%
Over 3.5	67% (2/3)	25% (1/4)	31%
BTTS	67% (2/3)	50% (2/4)	58%
Win %	67% (2/3)	25% (1/4)	48% home · 35% away
Goals for per game	2.67	1.25	1.49
Goals against per game	1.33	1.25	1.49

Serie A average from 71 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Monza	14	7	7
Napoli	9	10	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Monza 1 win, 1 draw, Napoli 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 5; both teams scored in 1 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 19 Apr 2025	Serie A	Monza v Napoli	0–1
Sun, 29 Sept 2024	Serie A	Napoli v Monza	2–0
Sun, 7 Apr 2024	Serie A	Monza v Napoli	2–4
Fri, 29 Dec 2023	Serie A	Napoli v Monza	0–0
Sun, 14 May 2023	Serie A	Monza v Napoli	2–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Monza v Napoli?: Our model makes Napoli the more likely winner at 49%: Monza 25%, draw 26%, Napoli 49%. Napoli won 3 of 5 of the last 5 meetings.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Monza v Napoli?: Over 2.5 goals is 50% and under 2.5 is 50%, with expected goals of 2.7. Over 2.5 in all 3 Monza home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Monza and Napoli played recently?: Latest first: Monza LWLWL, Napoli DWLLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie ASerie AIntervFiorentina	O1.586%	72%	17%	11%	86%	67%	46%	53%	67%	86%	46%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AAtalantavFrosinone	O1.579%	56%	23%	20%	79%	56%	34%	53%	56%	79%	34%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AGenoavVenezia	U3.575%	39%	28%	33%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
17:00 · Serie ASerie ALeccevJuventus	U3.582%	18%	28%	54%	65%	37%	18%	47%	37%	65%	18%	47%
19:45 · Serie ASerie AUdinesevMilan	O1.575%	26%	26%	48%	75%	49%	27%	52%	49%	75%	27%	52%
Tue, 27 Oct 2026
17:30 · Serie ASerie ASassuolovLazio	O1.576%	32%	27%	41%	76%	51%	29%	53%	51%	76%	29%	53%

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