Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese Calcio prediction

Serie A · Wed, 28 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese Calcio prediction (Wed, 28 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK): Parma Calcio 1913 37% · Draw 30% · Udinese Calcio 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.16–1.09. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 49%, No 51%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%).

Published Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Parma vs Udinese preview

Parma (19th, 4 pts) host Udinese (16th, 4 pts) in the Serie A. Parma have taken 3 points from their last 5 games (LLLWL) and Udinese 0 points from 5 (LLLLL). Parma: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Parma 37%, Udinese 33%. A draw is more likely than usual at 30%; 17% of Serie A matches end level. Expected goals are 1.16 for Parma and 1.09 for Udinese, and the most likely score is 1-1 (14%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 61%, while 61% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Parma won 1 and Udinese won 3; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 61%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese Calcio?

This is close to a coin flip: Parma Calcio 1913 37%, Udinese Calcio 33%, with the draw at 30%. Recent form: Parma Calcio 1913 LLLWLD, Udinese Calcio LLLLLW (latest first).

Udinese lost 2 of 3 away games this season.

Parma Calcio 1913

37%

Draw

30%

Udinese Calcio

33%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 61%; Over 2.5 is 39%.

Under 2.5 in 27 of 38 Parma games last season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	66%	34%	1.52
2.5 goals	39%	61%	2.58
3.5 goals	19%	81%	5.30

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance: Parma Calcio 1913 score in about 69% of simulated outcomes and Udinese Calcio in about 66%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.2 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	49%	2.04
No	51%	1.96

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Parma Calcio 1913 win	37%	2.71
Draw	30%	3.36
Udinese Calcio win	33%	3.00
Over 2.5	39%	2.58
Under 2.5	61%	1.63

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.2 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Parma Calcio 1913 goals (rows) × Udinese Calcio goals (columns)
Parma \ Udinese	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	11%	11%	6%	2%	1%	0%
1	12%	14%	7%	3%	1%	0%
2	7%	8%	4%	2%	0%	0%
3	3%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

14%

1-0

12%

0-0

11%

0-1

11%

2-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Parma and Udinese played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Parma, last 5

Parma, last 5 at home

Udinese, last 5

Udinese, last 5 away

Current streaks

Parma: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.
Udinese have lost each of their last 5 league games.
Udinese have not won in their last 5 league games.
Parma: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Parma and Udinese.

How Parma and Udinese compare this season

Stat	Parma (home, 4)	Udinese (away, 3)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	100% (3/3)	85%
Over 2.5	50% (2/4)	100% (3/3)	61%
Over 3.5	0% (0/4)	67% (2/3)	31%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	100% (3/3)	58%
Win %	25% (1/4)	33% (1/3)	48% home · 35% away
Goals for per game	0.75	2.33	1.49
Goals against per game	1.50	3.00	1.49

Serie A average from 71 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Parma	19	4	7
Udinese	16	4	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Parma 1 win, 0 draws, Udinese 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 4; both teams scored in 1 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 18 Apr 2026	Serie A	Udinese v Parma	0–1
Sat, 29 Nov 2025	Serie A	Parma v Udinese	0–2
Sat, 1 Mar 2025	Serie A	Udinese v Parma	1–0
Mon, 16 Sept 2024	Serie A	Parma v Udinese	2–3

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Parma v Udinese?: Our model makes Parma the more likely winner at 37%: Parma 37%, draw 30%, Udinese 33%. Udinese lost 2 of 3 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Parma v Udinese?: Over 2.5 goals is 39% and under 2.5 is 61%, with expected goals of 2.2. Under 2.5 in 27 of 38 Parma games last season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Parma and Udinese played recently?: Latest first: Parma LLLWL, Udinese LLLLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie ASerie AIntervFiorentina	O1.586%	72%	17%	11%	86%	67%	46%	53%	67%	86%	46%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AAtalantavFrosinone	O1.579%	56%	23%	20%	79%	56%	34%	53%	56%	79%	34%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AGenoavVenezia	U3.575%	39%	28%	33%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
17:00 · Serie ASerie ALeccevJuventus	U3.582%	18%	28%	54%	65%	37%	18%	47%	37%	65%	18%	47%
19:45 · Serie ASerie AUdinesevMilan	O1.575%	26%	26%	48%	75%	49%	27%	52%	49%	75%	27%	52%
Tue, 27 Oct 2026
17:30 · Serie ASerie ASassuolovLazio	O1.576%	32%	27%	41%	76%	51%	29%	53%	51%	76%	29%	53%

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