AC Milan vs Bologna FC 1909 prediction

Serie A · Wed, 28 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK

AC Milan vs Bologna FC 1909 prediction (Wed, 28 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK): AC Milan 53% · Draw 25% · Bologna FC 1909 22%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.64–0.97. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%).

Published Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Milan vs Bologna preview

Milan (4th, 15 pts) host Bologna (15th, 5 pts) in the Serie A. Milan have taken 9 points from their last 5 games (WDWDD) and Bologna 5 points from 5 (LWDLD). Milan: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 11 league games.

Our model makes Milan clear favourites at 53%, with Bologna at 22%. Expected goals are 1.64 for Milan and 0.97 for Bologna, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 52%, while 61% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Milan won 3, Bologna won 1 and 1 ended level; 4 had over 2.5 goals.

Milan to win is the model's clearest call at 53%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win AC Milan vs Bologna FC 1909?

AC Milan are clear favourites at 53%, with Bologna FC 1909 at 22%. Recent form: AC Milan WDWDDW, Bologna FC 1909 LWDLDL (latest first).

Milan won all 3 home games this season.

AC Milan

53%

Draw

25%

Bologna FC 1909

22%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 48% and Under 2.5 is 52%.

Under 2.5 in 2 of 3 Bologna away games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	74%	26%	1.36
2.5 goals	48%	52%	2.07
3.5 goals	27%	73%	3.77

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: AC Milan score in about 81% of simulated outcomes and Bologna FC 1909 in about 62%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 5 of 7 Milan games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	51%	1.97
No	49%	2.04

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
AC Milan win	53%	1.90
Draw	25%	3.93
Bologna FC 1909 win	22%	4.59
Over 2.5	48%	2.07
Under 2.5	52%	1.93

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: AC Milan goals (rows) × Bologna FC 1909 goals (columns)
AC \ Bologna	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8%	7%	3%	1%	0%	0%
1	12%	12%	6%	2%	0%	0%
2	10%	10%	5%	1%	0%	0%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

1-0

12%

2-0

10%

2-1

10%

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Milan and Bologna played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Milan, last 5

Milan, last 5 at home

Bologna, last 5

Bologna, last 5 away

Current streaks

Milan: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 11 league games.
Milan are unbeaten in their last 7 league games.
Bologna: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Bologna: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Milan and Bologna.

How Milan and Bologna compare this season

Stat	Milan (home, 3)	Bologna (away, 3)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	33% (1/3)	85%
Over 2.5	67% (2/3)	33% (1/3)	61%
Over 3.5	33% (1/3)	0% (0/3)	31%
BTTS	33% (1/3)	33% (1/3)	58%
Win %	100% (3/3)	33% (1/3)	48% home · 35% away
Goals for per game	2.67	0.67	1.49
Goals against per game	0.67	1.00	1.49

Serie A average from 71 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Milan	4	15	7
Bologna	15	5	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Milan 3 wins, 1 draw, Bologna 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Tue, 3 Feb 2026	Serie A	Bologna v Milan	0–3
Sun, 14 Sept 2025	Serie A	Milan v Bologna	1–0
Fri, 9 May 2025	Serie A	Milan v Bologna	3–1
Thu, 27 Feb 2025	Serie A	Bologna v Milan	2–1
Sat, 27 Jan 2024	Serie A	Milan v Bologna	2–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Milan v Bologna?: Our model makes Milan the more likely winner at 53%: Milan 53%, draw 25%, Bologna 22%. Milan won all 3 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Milan v Bologna?: Over 2.5 goals is 48% and under 2.5 is 52%, with expected goals of 2.6. Under 2.5 in 2 of 3 Bologna away games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Milan and Bologna played recently?: Latest first: Milan WDWDD, Bologna LWDLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie ASerie AIntervFiorentina	O1.586%	72%	17%	11%	86%	67%	46%	53%	67%	86%	46%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AAtalantavFrosinone	O1.579%	56%	23%	20%	79%	56%	34%	53%	56%	79%	34%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AGenoavVenezia	U3.575%	39%	28%	33%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
17:00 · Serie ASerie ALeccevJuventus	U3.582%	18%	28%	54%	65%	37%	18%	47%	37%	65%	18%	47%
19:45 · Serie ASerie AUdinesevMilan	O1.575%	26%	26%	48%	75%	49%	27%	52%	49%	75%	27%	52%
Tue, 27 Oct 2026
17:30 · Serie ASerie ASassuolovLazio	O1.576%	32%	27%	41%	76%	51%	29%	53%	51%	76%	29%	53%

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