Torino FC vs AC Monza prediction

Serie A · Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK

Torino FC vs AC Monza prediction (Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): Torino FC 46% · Draw 26% · AC Monza 28%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.51–1.13. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 52%, No 48%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).

Published Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Torino vs Monza preview

Torino (10th, 10 pts) host Monza (14th, 7 pts) in the Serie A. Torino have taken 10 points from their last 5 games (WWDLW) and Monza 7 points from 5 (WLWLD). Torino: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 12 league games.

Our model favours Torino at 46% to Monza's 28%. Expected goals are 1.51 for Torino and 1.13 for Monza, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 51%, while 60% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Torino won 2, Monza didn't win any and 3 ended level; none had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 52%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Torino FC vs AC Monza?

Torino FC are favoured at 46%, but the draw and a AC Monza win together still account for 54%. Recent form: Torino FC WWDLWL, AC Monza WLWLDL (latest first).

Monza lost 3 of 4 away games this season.

Torino FC

46%

Draw

26%

AC Monza

28%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 49% and Under 2.5 is 51%.

Under 2.5 in 5 of the last 5 meetings.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	75%	25%	1.34
2.5 goals	49%	51%	2.03
3.5 goals	27%	73%	3.65

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance: Torino FC score in about 78% of simulated outcomes and AC Monza in about 68%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 4 Monza away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	52%	1.92
No	48%	2.08

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Torino FC win	46%	2.19
Draw	26%	3.79
AC Monza win	28%	3.58
Over 2.5	49%	2.03
Under 2.5	51%	1.97

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Torino FC goals (rows) × AC Monza goals (columns)
Torino \ AC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8%	8%	5%	2%	0%	0%
1	10%	13%	7%	3%	1%	0%
2	8%	9%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

1-0

10%

2-1

2-0

0-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Torino and Monza played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Torino, last 5

Torino, last 5 at home

Monza, last 5

Monza, last 5 away

Current streaks

Torino: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 12 league games.
Monza: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 12 league games.
Monza: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Torino are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Torino and Monza.

How Torino and Monza compare this season

Stat	Torino (home, 3)	Monza (away, 4)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	100% (4/4)	84%
Over 2.5	67% (2/3)	75% (3/4)	60%
Over 3.5	0% (0/3)	75% (3/4)	30%
BTTS	67% (2/3)	100% (4/4)	57%
Win %	33% (1/3)	0% (0/4)	47% home · 36% away
Goals for per game	1.00	1.25	1.48
Goals against per game	1.67	2.75	1.48

Serie A average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Torino	10	10	7
Monza	14	7	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Torino 2 wins, 3 draws, Monza 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 0 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 2 Mar 2025	Serie A	Monza v Torino	0–2
Sun, 24 Nov 2024	Serie A	Torino v Monza	1–1
Sat, 30 Mar 2024	Serie A	Torino v Monza	1–0
Sat, 11 Nov 2023	Serie A	Monza v Torino	1–1
Sun, 7 May 2023	Serie A	Torino v Monza	1–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Torino v Monza?: Our model makes Torino the more likely winner at 46%: Torino 46%, draw 26%, Monza 28%. Monza lost 3 of 4 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Torino v Monza?: Over 2.5 goals is 49% and under 2.5 is 51%, with expected goals of 2.6. Under 2.5 in 5 of the last 5 meetings.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Torino and Monza played recently?: Latest first: Torino WWDLW, Monza WLWLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:00 · Serie ASerie ACagliarivBologna	U3.579%	32%	29%	39%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AComo 1907vSassuolo	O1.582%	61%	21%	18%	82%	60%	38%	53%	60%	82%	38%	53%
17:00 · Serie ASerie ANapolivRoma	U3.579%	36%	29%	35%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
19:45 · Serie ASerie ALaziovParma	U3.581%	58%	26%	16%	66%	39%	19%	47%	39%	66%	19%	47%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie ASerie AIntervFiorentina	O1.586%	72%	16%	11%	86%	68%	46%	53%	68%	86%	46%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AAtalantavFrosinone	O1.579%	56%	23%	20%	79%	56%	34%	53%	56%	79%	34%	53%

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