Ligue 1 · Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK
Stade Brestois 29 vs OGC Nice prediction (Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): Stade Brestois 29 45% · Draw 26% · OGC Nice 29%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.56–1.21. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 56%, No 44%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Brest vs Nice preview
Brest (10th, 9 pts) host Nice (13th, 8 pts) in the Ligue 1. Brest have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (DWLLW) and Nice 7 points from 5 (LWWLD). Brest: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Our model favours Brest at 45% to Nice's 29%. Expected goals are 1.56 for Brest and 1.21 for Nice, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).
Over 2.5 goals is 52%, below the Ligue 1 rate of 63%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Ligue 1 match. In their last 5 meetings, Brest won 1, Nice won 2 and 2 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.
Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 56%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win Stade Brestois 29 vs OGC Nice?
Stade Brestois 29 are favoured at 45%, but the draw and a OGC Nice win together still account for 55%. Recent form: Stade Brestois 29 DWLLWD, OGC Nice LWWLDL (latest first).
Nice lost all 3 away games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 52% and Under 2.5 is 48%.
Over 2.5 in 5 of 7 Brest games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 77% | 23% | 1.30 |
| 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | 1.91 |
| 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | 3.31 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance: Stade Brestois 29 score in about 79% of simulated outcomes and OGC Nice in about 70%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 6 of 7 Brest games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.28 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 45% | 2.22 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 |
| OGC Nice win | 29% | 3.43 |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.8 total goals.
| Stade \ OGC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 1 | 9% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 8% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Brest and Nice played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Brest: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
- Brest: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
- Nice: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
- Nice: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
- Nice: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Ligue 1 games only, runs of three or more. Brest and Nice.
How Brest and Nice compare this season
| Stat | Brest (home, 3) | Nice (away, 3) | Ligue 1 average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 67% (2/3) | 67% (2/3) | 79% |
| Over 2.5 | 67% (2/3) | 67% (2/3) | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% (2/3) | 0% (0/3) | 38% |
| BTTS | 67% (2/3) | 33% (1/3) | 63% |
| Win % | 33% (1/3) | 0% (0/3) | 44% home · 32% away |
| Goals for per game | 2.33 | 0.33 | 1.52 |
| Goals against per game | 1.33 | 2.00 | 1.52 |
Ligue 1 average from 63 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Ligue 1 table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brest | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Nice | 13 | 8 | 7 |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Brest 1 win, 2 draws, Nice 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 1 Feb 2026 | Ligue 1 | Nice v Brest | 2–2 |
| Sat, 20 Sept 2025 | Ligue 1 | Brest v Nice | 4–1 |
| Sat, 17 May 2025 | Ligue 1 | Nice v Brest | 6–0 |
| Sat, 2 Nov 2024 | Ligue 1 | Brest v Nice | 0–1 |
| Sun, 4 Feb 2024 | Ligue 1 | Brest v Nice | 0–0 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Brest v Nice?
- Our model makes Brest the more likely winner at 45%: Brest 45%, draw 26%, Nice 29%. Nice lost all 3 away games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Brest v Nice?
- Over 2.5 goals is 52% and under 2.5 is 48%, with expected goals of 2.8. Over 2.5 in 5 of 7 Brest games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Brest and Nice played recently?
- Latest first: Brest DWLLW, Nice LWWLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- Stade Brestois 29
- OGC Nice
- Ligue 1 predictions
- Ligue 1 table
- Ligue 1 Home win
- Ligue 1 Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
19:45 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.576% | 54% | 24% | 21% | 51% | 76% | 29% | 55% |
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
14:00 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.577% | 44% | 26% | 30% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 56% |
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.579% | 66% | 20% | 14% | 56% | 79% | 34% | 54% |
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.575% | 45% | 27% | 29% | 49% | 75% | 28% | 55% |
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.578% | 58% | 23% | 19% | 54% | 78% | 31% | 55% |
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.587% | 48% | 22% | 29% | 68% | 87% | 47% | 61% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Fri, 23 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
19:00 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.584% | 51% | 23% | 26% | 63% | 84% | 40% | 60% |
FT · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.586%✓ | 65%✕ | 19%✕ | 16%✓ | 68%✓ | 86%✓ | 46%✓ | 61%✓ |
19:45 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.575% | 46% | 26% | 28% | 49% | 75% | 27% | 52% |
20:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | U3.575% | 50% | 26% | 23% | 47% | 72% | 25% | 52% |
20:00 · Premier LgPremier League  | O1.579% | 30% | 26% | 44% | 55% | 79% | 33% | 58% |