La Liga · Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK
Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga CF prediction (Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): Deportivo Alavés 50% · Draw 26% · Málaga CF 23%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.56–0.98. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 52%, No 48%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Alavés vs Málaga preview
Alavés (7th, 11 pts) host Málaga (20th, 4 pts) in the La Liga. Alavés have taken 1 point from their last 5 games (LLDLL) and Málaga 2 points from 5 (LDLLD). Málaga have not won in their last 9 league games.
Our model favours Alavés at 50% to Málaga's 23%. Expected goals are 1.56 for Alavés and 0.98 for Málaga, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).
The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 53%, while 56% of La Liga matches go over 2.5.
Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 53%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.
Who will win Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga CF?
Deportivo Alavés are favoured at 50%, but the draw and a Málaga CF win together still account for 50%. Recent form: Deportivo Alavés LLDLLW, Málaga CF LDLLDD (latest first).
Málaga lost 3 of 4 away games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 47% and Under 2.5 is 53%.
Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Málaga away games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 72% | 28% | 1.38 |
| 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | 2.15 |
| 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | 3.99 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance: Deportivo Alavés score in about 79% of simulated outcomes and Málaga CF in about 63%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 14 of 19 Alavés home games last season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| No | 48% | 2.10 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 |
| Málaga CF win | 23% | 4.28 |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.5 total goals.
| Deportivo \ Málaga | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 1 | 12% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 2 | 10% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 3 | 5% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Alavés and Málaga played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Málaga have not won in their last 9 league games.
- Alavés have not won in their last 5 league games.
La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Alavés and Málaga.
How Alavés and Málaga compare this season
| Stat | Alavés (home, 5) | Málaga (away, 4) | La Liga average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 60% (3/5) | 75% (3/4) | 76% |
| Over 2.5 | 60% (3/5) | 25% (1/4) | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% (1/5) | 25% (1/4) | 39% |
| BTTS | 40% (2/5) | 25% (1/4) | 60% |
| Win % | 60% (3/5) | 0% (0/4) | 44% home · 28% away |
| Goals for per game | 2.00 | 0.25 | 1.54 |
| Goals against per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.54 |
La Liga average from 89 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
La Liga table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alavés | 7 | 11 | 9 |
| Málaga | 20 | 4 | 9 |
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Alavés 1 win, 0 draws, Málaga 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 2; both teams scored in 1 of 2.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 20 May 2023 | SP2 | Alavés v Málaga | 2–1 |
| Sun, 18 Dec 2022 | SP2 | Málaga v Alavés | 1–0 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Alavés v Málaga?
- Our model makes Alavés the more likely winner at 50%: Alavés 50%, draw 26%, Málaga 23%. Málaga lost 3 of 4 away games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Alavés v Málaga?
- Over 2.5 goals is 47% and under 2.5 is 53%, with expected goals of 2.5. Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Málaga away games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Alavés and Málaga played recently?
- Latest first: Alavés LLDLL, Málaga LDLLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- Deportivo Alavés
- Málaga CF
- La Liga predictions
- La Liga table
- La Liga Home win
- La Liga Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming La Liga predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | U3.579% | 44% | 28% | 27% | 42% | 69% | 21% | 51% |
15:15 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.583% | 41% | 24% | 35% | 61% | 83% | 39% | 58% |
17:30 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.579% | 30% | 25% | 44% | 55% | 79% | 33% | 56% |
20:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.581% | 69% | 19% | 12% | 59% | 81% | 36% | 53% |
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | U3.590% | 45% | 33% | 22% | 26% | 53% | 10% | 46% |
15:15 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.577% | 38% | 26% | 35% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 55% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Fri, 23 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
19:00 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.584% | 51% | 23% | 26% | 63% | 84% | 40% | 60% |
19:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.586% | 65% | 19% | 16% | 68% | 86% | 46% | 61% |
19:45 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.575% | 46% | 26% | 28% | 49% | 75% | 27% | 52% |
19:45 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.577% | 45% | 26% | 29% | 52% | 77% | 30% | 56% |
20:00 · Premier LgPremier League  | O1.579% | 30% | 26% | 44% | 55% | 79% | 33% | 58% |