Málaga CF vs Real Sociedad de Fútbol prediction

La Liga · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK

Full-time: Málaga CF 2–5 Real Sociedad de Fútbol (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Real Sociedad de Fútbol a 38% chance of winning, and the exact score 2–5 a 0% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick away (38%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (56%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (12%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (74%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (79%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (55%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (67%)Incorrect

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Málaga CF vs Real Sociedad de Fútbol prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK): Málaga CF 37% · Draw 26% · Real Sociedad de Fútbol 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.44–1.46. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 56%, No 44%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).

Published Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Málaga vs Real Sociedad pre-match preview

Málaga (20th, 4 pts) host Real Sociedad (5th, 16 pts) in the La Liga. Málaga have taken 3 points from their last 5 games (DLLDD) and Real Sociedad 10 points from 5 (WWLWD), so Real Sociedad arrive in clearly better form. Málaga have not won in their last 9 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Málaga 37%, Real Sociedad 38%. Expected goals are 1.44 for Málaga and 1.46 for Real Sociedad, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

The goal markets sit close to the La Liga norm: Over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 56%.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 56%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Málaga CF vs Real Sociedad de Fútbol?

This is close to a coin flip: Málaga CF 37%, Real Sociedad de Fútbol 38%, with the draw at 26%. Recent form: Málaga CF DLLDDL, Real Sociedad de Fútbol WWLWDW (latest first).

Real Sociedad won 3 of 5 away games this season.

Málaga CF

37%

Draw

26%

Real Sociedad de Fútbol

38%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 55% and Under 2.5 is 45%.

Over 2.5 in 4 of 5 Real Sociedad away games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	79%	21%	1.27
2.5 goals	55%	45%	1.81
3.5 goals	33%	67%	3.03

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance: Málaga CF score in about 76% of simulated outcomes and Real Sociedad de Fútbol in about 77%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 4 of 5 Málaga home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	56%	1.79
No	44%	2.27

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Málaga CF win	37%	2.73
Draw	26%	3.91
Real Sociedad de Fútbol win	38%	2.65
Over 2.5	55%	1.81
Under 2.5	45%	2.24

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.9 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Málaga CF goals (rows) × Real Sociedad de Fútbol goals (columns)
Málaga \ Real	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	8%	6%	3%	1%	0%
1	8%	12%	8%	4%	2%	0%
2	6%	8%	6%	3%	1%	0%
3	3%	4%	3%	1%	1%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

1-2

2-1

0-1

1-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Málaga and Real Sociedad played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Málaga, last 5

Málaga, last 5 at home

Real Sociedad, last 5

Real Sociedad, last 5 away

Current streaks

Málaga have not won in their last 9 league games.
Real Sociedad: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
Real Sociedad: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
Real Sociedad: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Real Sociedad are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.
Real Sociedad have won each of their last 3 league games.

La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Málaga and Real Sociedad.

How Málaga and Real Sociedad compare this season

Stat	Málaga (home, 5)	Real Sociedad (away, 5)	La Liga average
Over 1.5	80% (4/5)	80% (4/5)	76%
Over 2.5	40% (2/5)	80% (4/5)	56%
Over 3.5	40% (2/5)	80% (4/5)	39%
BTTS	80% (4/5)	80% (4/5)	60%
Win %	0% (0/5)	60% (3/5)	44% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	1.00	2.40	1.54
Goals against per game	2.00	2.20	1.54

La Liga average from 89 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

La Liga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Málaga	20	4	9
Real Sociedad	5	16	9

Full La Liga table

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Málaga v Real Sociedad?: Our model makes Real Sociedad the more likely winner at 38%: Málaga 37%, draw 26%, Real Sociedad 38%. Real Sociedad won 3 of 5 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Málaga v Real Sociedad?: Over 2.5 goals is 55% and under 2.5 is 45%, with expected goals of 2.9. Over 2.5 in 4 of 5 Real Sociedad away games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Málaga and Real Sociedad played recently?: Latest first: Málaga DLLDD, Real Sociedad WWLWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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