Bundesliga · Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 19:30 UK
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction (Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 19:30 UK): VfB Stuttgart 65% · Draw 19% · Borussia Mönchengladbach 16%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%. Most likely score: 2-1. Expected goals 2.38–1.10. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 61%, No 39%. Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 1-1 (8%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Stuttgart vs Gladbach preview
Stuttgart (13th, 6 pts) host Gladbach (18th, 0 pts) in the Bundesliga. Stuttgart have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (DLWWL) and Gladbach 0 points from 5 (LLLLL), so Stuttgart arrive in clearly better form. Gladbach: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.
Our model makes Stuttgart clear favourites at 65%, with Gladbach at 16%. Expected goals are 2.38 for Stuttgart and 1.10 for Gladbach, and the most likely score is 2-1 (10%).
The goal markets sit close to the Bundesliga norm: Over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 61%. In their last 5 meetings, Stuttgart won 4 and Gladbach won 1; 4 had over 2.5 goals.
Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 68%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.
Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
VfB Stuttgart are clear favourites at 65%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach at 16%. Recent form: VfB Stuttgart DLWWLL, Borussia Mönchengladbach LLLLLL (latest first).
Gladbach lost all 3 away games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals is likely at 68%.
Over 2.5 in all 6 Gladbach games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 86% | 14% | 1.16 |
| 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | 1.48 |
| 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | 2.18 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 61% chance: VfB Stuttgart score in about 91% of simulated outcomes and Borussia Mönchengladbach in about 68%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 4 of 6 Gladbach games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.56 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 65% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.31 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 16% | 6.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.08 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 3.5 total goals.
| VfB \ Borussia | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 1 | 7% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 2 | 9% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 7% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 4% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Stuttgart and Gladbach played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Gladbach: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.
- Gladbach: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.
- Gladbach have lost each of their last 6 league games.
- Gladbach have not won in their last 6 league games.
- Stuttgart: at least one side failed to score in each of their last 3 league games.
- Stuttgart: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
- Gladbach: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Bundesliga games only, runs of three or more. Stuttgart and Gladbach.
How Stuttgart and Gladbach compare this season
| Stat | Stuttgart (home, 2) | Gladbach (away, 3) | Bundesliga average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 50% (1/2) | 100% (3/3) | 81% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% (1/2) | 100% (3/3) | 74% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% (1/2) | 33% (1/3) | 56% |
| BTTS | 50% (1/2) | 33% (1/3) | 59% |
| Win % | 50% (1/2) | 0% (0/3) | 52% home · 28% away |
| Goals for per game | 2.00 | 0.33 | 1.84 |
| Goals against per game | 1.00 | 3.33 | 1.84 |
Bundesliga average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Bundesliga table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart | 13 | 6 | 6 |
| Gladbach | 18 | 0 | 6 |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Stuttgart 4 wins, 0 draws, Gladbach 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 25 Jan 2026 | Bundesliga | Gladbach v Stuttgart | 0–3 |
| Sat, 30 Aug 2025 | Bundesliga | Stuttgart v Gladbach | 1–0 |
| Sat, 1 Feb 2025 | Bundesliga | Stuttgart v Gladbach | 1–2 |
| Sat, 14 Sept 2024 | Bundesliga | Gladbach v Stuttgart | 1–3 |
| Sat, 18 May 2024 | Bundesliga | Stuttgart v Gladbach | 4–0 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Stuttgart v Gladbach?
- Our model makes Stuttgart the more likely winner at 65%: Stuttgart 65%, draw 19%, Gladbach 16%. Gladbach lost all 3 away games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Stuttgart v Gladbach?
- Over 2.5 goals is 68% and under 2.5 is 32%, with expected goals of 3.5. Over 2.5 in all 6 Gladbach games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 2-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Stuttgart and Gladbach played recently?
- Latest first: Stuttgart DLWWL, Gladbach LLLLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- VfB Stuttgart
- Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Bundesliga predictions
- Bundesliga table
- Bundesliga Home win
- Bundesliga Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Bundesliga predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.577% | 50% | 25% | 25% | 52% | 77% | 30% | 59% |
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | U3.574% | 45% | 27% | 28% | 48% | 74% | 26% | 58% |
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.579% | 52% | 24% | 24% | 56% | 79% | 33% | 59% |
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.586% | 60% | 20% | 20% | 67% | 86% | 46% | 62% |
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.581% | 41% | 25% | 34% | 59% | 81% | 36% | 61% |
17:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.589% | 67% | 18% | 15% | 71% | 89% | 51% | 62% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Fri, 23 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
19:00 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.584% | 51% | 23% | 26% | 63% | 84% | 40% | 60% |
19:45 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.575% | 46% | 26% | 28% | 49% | 75% | 27% | 52% |
19:45 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.577% | 45% | 26% | 29% | 52% | 77% | 30% | 56% |
20:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | U3.575% | 50% | 26% | 23% | 47% | 72% | 25% | 52% |
20:00 · Premier LgPremier League  | O1.579% | 30% | 26% | 44% | 55% | 79% | 33% | 58% |