RC Celta de Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés prediction

La Liga · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 15:15 UK

Full-time: RC Celta de Vigo 2–1 Deportivo Alavés (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 15:15 UK). Before kick-off the model gave RC Celta de Vigo a 48% chance of winning, and the exact score 2–1 a 9% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (48%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (72%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick under (55%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (76%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (52%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (13%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 1X (75%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

RC Celta de Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 15:15 UK): RC Celta de Vigo 48% · Draw 27% · Deportivo Alavés 25%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.49–1.00. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 52%, No 48%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (9%).

Published Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Celta vs Alavés pre-match preview

Celta (8th, 11 pts) host Alavés (7th, 11 pts) in the La Liga. Celta have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (DWDDD) and Alavés 4 points from 5 (LDLLW). Celta are unbeaten in their last 6 league games.

Our model favours Celta at 48% to Alavés's 25%. Expected goals are 1.49 for Celta and 1.00 for Alavés, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 55%, while 56% of La Liga matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Celta won 2, Alavés won 1 and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 55%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win RC Celta de Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés?

RC Celta de Vigo are favoured at 48%, but the draw and a Deportivo Alavés win together still account for 52%. Recent form: RC Celta de Vigo DWDDDL, Deportivo Alavés LDLLWW (latest first).

Celta are unbeaten in their last 6 league games.

RC Celta de Vigo

48%

Draw

27%

Deportivo Alavés

25%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 45% and Under 2.5 is 55%.

Under 2.5 in 6 of 9 Celta games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	72%	28%	1.40
2.5 goals	45%	55%	2.20
3.5 goals	24%	76%	4.16

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance: RC Celta de Vigo score in about 78% of simulated outcomes and Deportivo Alavés in about 63%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of 4 Alavés away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	52%	1.92
No	48%	2.09

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
RC Celta de Vigo win	48%	2.07
Draw	27%	3.71
Deportivo Alavés win	25%	4.03
Over 2.5	45%	2.20
Under 2.5	55%	1.83

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: RC Celta de Vigo goals (rows) × Deportivo Alavés goals (columns)
RC \ Deportivo	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9%	8%	4%	1%	0%	0%
1	12%	13%	6%	2%	1%	0%
2	9%	9%	5%	2%	0%	0%
3	5%	5%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

1-0

12%

2-0

2-1

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Celta and Alavés played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Current streaks

Celta are unbeaten in their last 6 league games.
Alavés have not won in their last 5 league games.

La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Celta and Alavés.

How Celta and Alavés compare this season

Stat	Celta (home, 5)	Alavés (away, 4)	La Liga average
Over 1.5	100% (5/5)	75% (3/4)	76%
Over 2.5	60% (3/5)	50% (2/4)	56%
Over 3.5	20% (1/5)	0% (0/4)	39%
BTTS	60% (3/5)	75% (3/4)	60%
Win %	40% (2/5)	0% (0/4)	44% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	1.80	0.75	1.54
Goals against per game	1.20	1.25	1.54

La Liga average from 89 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

La Liga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Celta	8	11	9
Alavés	7	11	9

Full La Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Celta 2 wins, 1 draw, Alavés 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 22 Mar 2026	La Liga	Celta v Alavés	3–4
Sat, 22 Nov 2025	La Liga	Alavés v Celta	0–1
Mon, 27 Jan 2025	La Liga	Alavés v Celta	1–1
Fri, 16 Aug 2024	La Liga	Celta v Alavés	2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Celta v Alavés?: Our model makes Celta the more likely winner at 48%: Celta 48%, draw 27%, Alavés 25%. Celta are unbeaten in their last 6 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Celta v Alavés?: Over 2.5 goals is 45% and under 2.5 is 55%, with expected goals of 2.5. Under 2.5 in 6 of 9 Celta games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Celta and Alavés played recently?: Latest first: Celta DWDDD, Alavés LDLLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
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