Bundesliga · Fri, 30 Oct 2026, 19:30 UK
SV 07 Elversberg vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 prediction (Fri, 30 Oct 2026, 19:30 UK): SV 07 Elversberg 41% · Draw 25% · 1. FSV Mainz 05 34%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.57–1.42. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 61%, No 39%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Elversberg vs Mainz preview
Elversberg (6th, 10 pts) host Mainz (5th, 10 pts) in the Bundesliga. Elversberg have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (LWLDL) and Mainz 6 points from 5 (LWLWL).
Our model sees little between the sides: Elversberg 41%, Mainz 34%. Expected goals are 1.57 for Elversberg and 1.42 for Mainz, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).
Over 2.5 goals is 58%, below the Bundesliga rate of 75%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Bundesliga match.
Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 61%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win SV 07 Elversberg vs 1. FSV Mainz 05?
This is close to a coin flip: SV 07 Elversberg 41%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 34%, with the draw at 25%. Recent form: SV 07 Elversberg LWLDLW, 1. FSV Mainz 05 LWLWLW (latest first).
Elversberg won 2 of 3 home games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 58% and Under 2.5 is 42%.
Over 2.5 in all 3 Elversberg home games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 80% | 20% | 1.24 |
| 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | 1.74 |
| 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | 2.84 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 61% chance: SV 07 Elversberg score in about 79% of simulated outcomes and 1. FSV Mainz 05 in about 76%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in all 3 Elversberg home games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.55 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| SV 07 Elversberg win | 41% | 2.46 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 34% | 2.92 |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 3.0 total goals.
| SV \ 1. | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 1 | 7% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 6% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 3% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Elversberg and Mainz played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
How Elversberg and Mainz compare this season
| Stat | Elversberg (home, 3) | Mainz (away, 3) | Bundesliga average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 100% (3/3) | 67% (2/3) | 82% |
| Over 2.5 | 100% (3/3) | 67% (2/3) | 75% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% (2/3) | 67% (2/3) | 56% |
| BTTS | 100% (3/3) | 33% (1/3) | 60% |
| Win % | 67% (2/3) | 100% (3/3) | 51% home · 29% away |
| Goals for per game | 2.67 | 3.33 | 1.85 |
| Goals against per game | 2.33 | 1.00 | 1.85 |
Bundesliga average from 55 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Bundesliga table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elversberg | 6 | 10 | 6 |
| Mainz | 5 | 10 | 6 |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in our records.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Elversberg v Mainz?
- Our model makes Elversberg the more likely winner at 41%: Elversberg 41%, draw 25%, Mainz 34%. Elversberg won 2 of 3 home games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Elversberg v Mainz?
- Over 2.5 goals is 58% and under 2.5 is 42%, with expected goals of 3.0. Over 2.5 in all 3 Elversberg home games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Elversberg and Mainz played recently?
- Latest first: Elversberg LWLDL, Mainz LWLWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- SV 07 Elversberg
- 1. FSV Mainz 05
- Bundesliga predictions
- Bundesliga table
- Bundesliga Home win
- Bundesliga Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Bundesliga predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.588% | 28% | 22% | 50% | 70% | 88% | 48% | 64% |
16:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.591% | 14% | 16% | 69% | 77% | 91% | 57% | 63% |
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga | O1.580% | 39% | 25% | 36% | 58% | 80% | 35% | 61% |
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga | O1.586% | 53% | 22% | 25% | 66% | 86% | 44% | 63% |
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga | O1.585% | 40% | 24% | 37% | 65% | 85% | 43% | 63% |
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.582% | 48% | 24% | 29% | 61% | 82% | 38% | 61% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Fri, 30 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.575% | 35% | 27% | 39% | 50% | 75% | 28% | 52% |
18:00 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.581% | 11% | 18% | 71% | 59% | 81% | 37% | 54% |
20:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.581% | 59% | 22% | 19% | 59% | 81% | 37% | 55% |
20:00 · EFL ChampChampionship  | O1.581% | 46% | 24% | 29% | 58% | 81% | 36% | 56% |
20:05 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | U3.574% | 41% | 27% | 32% | 47% | 73% | 26% | 55% |