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SV Werder Bremen crest SV Werder Bremen vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim TSG 1899 Hoffenheim crest prediction

Bundesliga · Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK

SV Werder Bremen vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim prediction (Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK): SV Werder Bremen 40% · Draw 24% · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.72–1.63. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 63%, No 37%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim preview

Werder Bremen (8th, 9 pts) host Hoffenheim (14th, 6 pts) in the Bundesliga. Werder Bremen have taken 9 points from their last 5 games (WDDWD) and Hoffenheim 6 points from 5 (WLLWL). Hoffenheim: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Werder Bremen 40%, Hoffenheim 37%. Expected goals are 1.72 for Werder Bremen and 1.63 for Hoffenheim, and the most likely score is 1-1 (10%).

Over 2.5 goals is 65%, below the Bundesliga rate of 75%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Bundesliga match. In their last 5 meetings, Werder Bremen won 1 and Hoffenheim won 4; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 65%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.

Who will win SV Werder Bremen vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim?

This is close to a coin flip: SV Werder Bremen 40%, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 37%, with the draw at 24%. Recent form: SV Werder Bremen WDDWDW, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim WLLWLL (latest first).

Werder Bremen won 2 of 3 home games this season.

SV Werder Bremen40%
Draw24%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim37%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 goals is likely at 65%.

Over 2.5 in all 6 Hoffenheim games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals85%15%1.18
2.5 goals65%35%1.54
3.5 goals43%57%2.32

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 63% chance: SV Werder Bremen score in about 82% of simulated outcomes and TSG 1899 Hoffenheim in about 81%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 6 Werder Bremen games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes63%1.58
No37%2.71

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
SV Werder Bremen win40%2.50
Draw24%4.25
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win37%2.74
Over 2.565%1.54
Under 2.535%2.86

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.3 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: SV Werder Bremen goals (rows) × TSG 1899 Hoffenheim goals (columns)
SV \ TSG012345
04%5%5%3%1%0%
16%10%8%4%2%1%
25%8%7%4%2%1%
33%5%4%2%1%0%
41%2%2%1%0%0%
50%1%1%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-110%
2-18%
1-28%
2-27%
1-06%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Werder Bremen and Hoffenheim played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Werder Bremen, last 5
  1. W 3–2 at Mainz
  2. D 2–2 v Paderborn
  3. D 2–2 at Dortmund
  4. W 3–2 v Augsburg
  5. D 1–1 at Köln
Werder Bremen, last 5 at home
  1. D 2–2 v Paderborn
  2. W 3–2 v Augsburg
  3. W 3–1 v Leipzig
  4. L 0–2 v Dortmund
  5. L 1–3 v Augsburg
Hoffenheim, last 5
  1. W 2–1 at Gladbach
  2. L 2–3 v HSV
  3. L 1–3 at Paderborn
  4. W 2–1 v Stuttgart
  5. L 2–3 v Dortmund
Hoffenheim, last 5 away
  1. W 2–1 at Gladbach
  2. L 1–3 at Paderborn
  3. L 2–3 at Köln
  4. L 0–4 at Gladbach
  5. W 2–1 at HSV

Current streaks

Bundesliga games only, runs of three or more. Werder Bremen and Hoffenheim.

How Werder Bremen and Hoffenheim compare this season

StatWerder Bremen (home, 3)Hoffenheim (away, 3)Bundesliga average
Over 1.5100% (3/3)100% (3/3)82%
Over 2.5100% (3/3)100% (3/3)75%
Over 3.5100% (3/3)67% (2/3)56%
BTTS100% (3/3)100% (3/3)60%
Win %67% (2/3)33% (1/3)51% home · 29% away
Goals for per game2.671.671.85
Goals against per game1.672.331.85

Bundesliga average from 55 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Bundesliga table

TeamPosPtsP
Werder Bremen896
Hoffenheim1466

Full Bundesliga table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Werder Bremen 1 win, 0 draws, Hoffenheim 4 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sat, 9 May 2026BundesligaHoffenheim v Werder Bremen1–0
Tue, 27 Jan 2026BundesligaWerder Bremen v Hoffenheim0–2
Sun, 16 Feb 2025BundesligaWerder Bremen v Hoffenheim1–3
Sun, 29 Sept 2024BundesligaHoffenheim v Werder Bremen3–4
Sun, 3 Mar 2024BundesligaHoffenheim v Werder Bremen2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Werder Bremen v Hoffenheim?
Our model makes Werder Bremen the more likely winner at 40%: Werder Bremen 40%, draw 24%, Hoffenheim 37%. Werder Bremen won 2 of 3 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Werder Bremen v Hoffenheim?
Over 2.5 goals is 65% and under 2.5 is 35%, with expected goals of 3.3. Over 2.5 in all 6 Hoffenheim games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Werder Bremen and Hoffenheim played recently?
Latest first: Werder Bremen WDDWD, Hoffenheim WLLWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

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Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Bundesliga predictions
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
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16:30 · BundesligaSC Freiburg crestFreiburgFC Bayern München crestBayernO1.591%14%16%69%77%91%57%63%
Fri, 30 Oct 2026
19:30 · BundesligaSV 07 Elversberg crestElversberg1. FSV Mainz 05 crestMainzO1.580%41%25%34%58%80%35%61%
Sat, 31 Oct 2026
14:30 · BundesligaFC Augsburg crestAugsburgSC Freiburg crestFreiburgO1.580%39%25%36%58%80%35%61%
14:30 · BundesligaBayer 04 Leverkusen crestLeverkusenVfB Stuttgart crestStuttgartO1.586%53%22%25%66%86%44%63%
14:30 · BundesligaBorussia Mönchengladbach crestGladbachSC Paderborn 07 crestPaderbornO1.582%48%24%29%61%82%38%61%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
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Sat, 31 Oct 2026
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