Bundesliga · Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg prediction (Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK): FC Augsburg 39% · Draw 25% · SC Freiburg 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.53–1.46. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 61%, No 39%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Augsburg vs Freiburg preview
Augsburg (10th, 8 pts) host Freiburg (3rd, 13 pts) in the Bundesliga. Augsburg have taken 3 points from their last 5 games (DLDLD) and Freiburg 10 points from 5 (LWDWW), so Freiburg arrive in clearly better form. Augsburg: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 18 league games.
Our model sees little between the sides: Augsburg 39%, Freiburg 36%. Expected goals are 1.53 for Augsburg and 1.46 for Freiburg, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).
Over 2.5 goals is 58%, below the Bundesliga rate of 75%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Bundesliga match. In their last 5 meetings, Augsburg won 2, Freiburg won 1 and 2 ended level; 4 had over 2.5 goals.
Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 61%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
This is close to a coin flip: FC Augsburg 39%, SC Freiburg 36%, with the draw at 25%. Recent form: FC Augsburg DLDLDW, SC Freiburg LWDWWW (latest first).
Model expects 3.0 total goals.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 58% and Under 2.5 is 42%.
Over 2.5 in all 6 Augsburg games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 80% | 20% | 1.24 |
| 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | 1.74 |
| 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | 2.85 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 61% chance: FC Augsburg score in about 78% of simulated outcomes and SC Freiburg in about 77%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 5 of 6 Augsburg games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.56 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 39% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 |
| SC Freiburg win | 36% | 2.77 |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.35 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 3.0 total goals.
| FC \ SC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 1 | 7% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 6% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Augsburg and Freiburg played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Augsburg: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 18 league games.
- Augsburg: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 9 league games.
- Augsburg: both teams scored in each of their last 5 league games.
- Augsburg have not won in their last 4 league games.
- Freiburg: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
- Freiburg: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
- Freiburg: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Bundesliga games only, runs of three or more. Augsburg and Freiburg.
How Augsburg and Freiburg compare this season
| Stat | Augsburg (home, 3) | Freiburg (away, 3) | Bundesliga average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 100% (3/3) | 67% (2/3) | 82% |
| Over 2.5 | 100% (3/3) | 67% (2/3) | 75% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% (2/3) | 33% (1/3) | 56% |
| BTTS | 67% (2/3) | 67% (2/3) | 60% |
| Win % | 33% (1/3) | 33% (1/3) | 51% home · 29% away |
| Goals for per game | 2.33 | 1.33 | 1.85 |
| Goals against per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.85 |
Bundesliga average from 55 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Bundesliga table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg | 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Freiburg | 3 | 13 | 6 |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Augsburg 2 wins, 2 draws, Freiburg 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5; both teams scored in 4 of 5.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 18 Jan 2026 | Bundesliga | Augsburg v Freiburg | 2–2 |
| Sat, 23 Aug 2025 | Bundesliga | Freiburg v Augsburg | 1–3 |
| Sun, 2 Mar 2025 | Bundesliga | Augsburg v Freiburg | 0–0 |
| Sat, 19 Oct 2024 | Bundesliga | Freiburg v Augsburg | 3–1 |
| Sun, 25 Feb 2024 | Bundesliga | Augsburg v Freiburg | 2–1 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Augsburg v Freiburg?
- Our model makes Augsburg the more likely winner at 39%: Augsburg 39%, draw 25%, Freiburg 36%. Model expects 3.0 total goals.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Augsburg v Freiburg?
- Over 2.5 goals is 58% and under 2.5 is 42%, with expected goals of 3.0. Over 2.5 in all 6 Augsburg games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Augsburg and Freiburg played recently?
- Latest first: Augsburg DLDLD, Freiburg LWDWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- FC Augsburg
- SC Freiburg
- Bundesliga predictions
- Bundesliga table
- Bundesliga Home win
- Bundesliga Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Bundesliga predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.588% | 28% | 22% | 50% | 70% | 88% | 48% | 64% |
16:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.591% | 14% | 16% | 69% | 77% | 91% | 57% | 63% |
| Fri, 30 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
19:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.580% | 41% | 25% | 34% | 58% | 80% | 35% | 61% |
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga | O1.586% | 53% | 22% | 25% | 66% | 86% | 44% | 63% |
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga | O1.585% | 40% | 24% | 37% | 65% | 85% | 43% | 63% |
14:30 · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.582% | 48% | 24% | 29% | 61% | 82% | 38% | 61% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12:30 · Premier LgPremier League  | O1.584% | 46% | 25% | 29% | 62% | 84% | 40% | 60% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.577% | 25% | 27% | 47% | 44% | 70% | 23% | 51% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.576% | 49% | 27% | 25% | 45% | 71% | 24% | 51% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | O1.578% | 54% | 24% | 22% | 55% | 78% | 32% | 54% |
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.580% | 22% | 24% | 54% | 57% | 80% | 34% | 55% |