ProbaPredict

Chelsea FC crest Chelsea FC vs Manchester United FC Manchester United FC crest prediction

Premier League · Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK

Chelsea FC vs Manchester United FC prediction (Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK): Chelsea FC 46% · Draw 25% · Manchester United FC 29%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.79–1.40. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 60%, No 40%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Chelsea vs Man United preview

Chelsea (4th, 13 pts) host Man United (13th, 7 pts) in the Premier League. Chelsea have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (WWLDL) and Man United 3 points from 5 (LDLDD). Chelsea: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 12 league games.

Our model favours Chelsea at 46% to Man United's 29%. Expected goals are 1.79 for Chelsea and 1.40 for Man United, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

Goals are the standout: Over 2.5 is 62%, against a Premier League average of 54%. In their last 5 meetings, Chelsea won 2, Man United won 2 and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 62%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Chelsea FC vs Manchester United FC?

Chelsea FC are favoured at 46%, but the draw and a Manchester United FC win together still account for 54%. Recent form: Chelsea FC WWLDLW, Manchester United FC LDLDDL (latest first).

Chelsea won 2 of 3 home games this season.

Chelsea FC46%
Draw25%
Manchester United FC29%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 62% and Under 2.5 is 38%.

Over 2.5 in all 3 Chelsea home games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals84%16%1.20
2.5 goals62%38%1.62
3.5 goals40%60%2.53

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance: Chelsea FC score in about 83% of simulated outcomes and Manchester United FC in about 76%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 3 Chelsea home games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes60%1.66
No40%2.51

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Chelsea FC win46%2.17
Draw25%4.07
Manchester United FC win29%3.39
Over 2.562%1.62
Under 2.538%2.62

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.2 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Chelsea FC goals (rows) × Manchester United FC goals (columns)
Chelsea \ Manchester012345
05%5%4%2%1%0%
17%11%7%3%1%0%
27%9%6%3%1%0%
34%6%4%2%1%0%
42%2%2%1%0%0%
51%1%1%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-111%
2-19%
1-27%
2-07%
1-07%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Chelsea and Man United played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Chelsea, last 5
  1. W 2–0 at Everton
  2. W 5–1 v Bournemouth
  3. L 0–3 at Brentford
  4. D 2–2 v Hull City
  5. L 1–2 at Arsenal
Chelsea, last 5 at home
  1. W 5–1 v Bournemouth
  2. D 2–2 v Hull City
  3. W 4–3 v Brighton
  4. W 2–1 v Tottenham
  5. L 1–3 v Nottingham
Man United, last 5
  1. L 1–4 at Como 1907
  2. D 1–1 at Leeds
  3. L 0–2 at Atleti
  4. D 1–1 v Tottenham
  5. D 1–1 at Fulham
Man United, last 5 away
  1. L 1–4 at Como 1907
  2. D 1–1 at Leeds
  3. L 0–2 at Atleti
  4. D 1–1 at Fulham
  5. D 2–2 at Everton

Current streaks

Premier League games only, runs of three or more. Chelsea and Man United.

How Chelsea and Man United compare this season

StatChelsea (home, 3)Man United (away, 4)Premier League average
Over 1.5100% (3/3)100% (4/4)76%
Over 2.5100% (3/3)25% (1/4)54%
Over 3.5100% (3/3)25% (1/4)35%
BTTS100% (3/3)75% (3/4)54%
Win %67% (2/3)0% (0/4)39% home · 31% away
Goals for per game3.671.001.44
Goals against per game2.001.501.44

Premier League average from 71 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Premier League table

TeamPosPtsP
Chelsea4137
Man United1377

Full Premier League table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Chelsea 2 wins, 1 draw, Man United 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sat, 18 Apr 2026Premier LeagueChelsea v Man United0–1
Sat, 20 Sept 2025Premier LeagueMan United v Chelsea2–1
Fri, 16 May 2025Premier LeagueChelsea v Man United1–0
Sun, 3 Nov 2024Premier LeagueMan United v Chelsea1–1
Thu, 4 Apr 2024Premier LeagueChelsea v Man United4–3

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Chelsea v Man United?
Our model makes Chelsea the more likely winner at 46%: Chelsea 46%, draw 25%, Man United 29%. Chelsea won 2 of 3 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Chelsea v Man United?
Over 2.5 goals is 62% and under 2.5 is 38%, with expected goals of 3.2. Over 2.5 in all 3 Chelsea home games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Chelsea and Man United played recently?
Latest first: Chelsea WWLDL, Man United LDLDD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Premier League predictions
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
14:00 · Premier LgManchester United FC crestMan UnitedAFC Bournemouth crestBournemouthO1.582%44%25%31%59%82%37%60%
14:00 · Premier LgHull City AFC crestHull CityBrentford FC crestBrentfordO1.576%22%25%53%52%76%30%56%
14:00 · Premier LgLiverpool FC crestLiverpoolBrighton & Hove Albion FC crestBrightonO1.583%50%24%26%61%83%38%59%
14:00 · Premier LgCrystal Palace FC crestCrystal PalaceNewcastle United FC crestNewcastleO1.581%38%26%37%59%81%36%59%
16:30 · Premier LgSunderland AFC crestSunderlandLeeds United FC crestLeedsU3.574%34%28%37%47%74%26%56%
Sat, 31 Oct 2026
15:00 · Premier LgCoventry City FC crestCoventry CitySunderland AFC crestSunderlandU3.576%45%28%27%45%71%24%55%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sat, 31 Oct 2026
12:30 · EFL ChampLincoln City FC crestLincoln CityBirmingham City FC crestBirminghamU3.577%25%27%47%44%70%23%51%
12:30 · EFL ChampStoke City FC crestStokePreston North End FC crestPreston NEU3.576%49%27%25%45%71%24%51%
12:30 · EFL ChampNorwich City FC crestNorwichWatford FC crestWatfordO1.578%54%24%22%55%78%32%54%
13:00 · La LigaLevante UD crestLevanteClub Atlético de Madrid crestAtletiO1.580%22%24%54%57%80%34%55%
14:00 · Serie ABologna FC 1909 crestBolognaAC Monza crestMonzaO1.576%53%25%22%52%76%30%52%