Bologna FC 1909 vs AC Monza prediction

Serie A · Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK

Bologna FC 1909 vs AC Monza prediction (Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK): Bologna FC 1909 53% · Draw 25% · AC Monza 22%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.73–1.02. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 52%, No 48%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%).

Published Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Bologna vs Monza preview

Bologna (15th, 5 pts) host Monza (14th, 7 pts) in the Serie A. Bologna have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (WLWDL) and Monza 6 points from 5 (LWLWL). Monza: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 13 league games.

Our model makes Bologna clear favourites at 53%, with Monza at 22%. Expected goals are 1.73 for Bologna and 1.02 for Monza, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

Over 2.5 goals is 52%, below the Serie A rate of 61%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Serie A match. In their last 5 meetings, Bologna won 2, Monza won 1 and 2 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Bologna to win is the model's clearest call at 53%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Bologna FC 1909 vs AC Monza?

Bologna FC 1909 are clear favourites at 53%, with AC Monza at 22%. Recent form: Bologna FC 1909 WLWDLD, AC Monza LWLWLD (latest first).

Monza lost 4 of 5 away games this season.

Bologna FC 1909

53%

Draw

25%

AC Monza

22%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 52% and Under 2.5 is 48%.

Over 2.5 in 7 of 8 Monza games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	76%	24%	1.31
2.5 goals	52%	48%	1.93
3.5 goals	30%	70%	3.37

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance: Bologna FC 1909 score in about 82% of simulated outcomes and AC Monza in about 64%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 5 Monza away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	52%	1.93
No	48%	2.08

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Bologna FC 1909 win	53%	1.87
Draw	25%	4.07
AC Monza win	22%	4.56
Over 2.5	52%	1.93
Under 2.5	48%	2.08

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Bologna FC 1909 goals (rows) × AC Monza goals (columns)
Bologna \ AC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7%	6%	3%	1%	0%	0%
1	11%	12%	6%	2%	1%	0%
2	10%	10%	5%	2%	0%	0%
3	5%	6%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

1-0

11%

2-1

10%

2-0

10%

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Bologna and Monza played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Bologna, last 5

Bologna, last 5 at home

Monza, last 5

Monza, last 5 away

Current streaks

Monza: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 13 league games.
Monza: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
Bologna: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Bologna: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Bologna and Monza.

How Bologna and Monza compare this season

Stat	Bologna (home, 4)	Monza (away, 5)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	100% (5/5)	85%
Over 2.5	50% (2/4)	80% (4/5)	61%
Over 3.5	50% (2/4)	80% (4/5)	31%
BTTS	75% (3/4)	100% (5/5)	58%
Win %	0% (0/4)	0% (0/5)	48% home · 35% away
Goals for per game	1.00	1.40	1.49
Goals against per game	1.75	2.80	1.49

Serie A average from 71 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Bologna	15	5	7
Monza	14	7	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Bologna 2 wins, 2 draws, Monza 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 18 Jan 2025	Serie A	Bologna v Monza	3–1
Sun, 22 Sept 2024	Serie A	Monza v Bologna	1–2
Sat, 13 Apr 2024	Serie A	Bologna v Monza	0–0
Thu, 28 Sept 2023	Serie A	Monza v Bologna	0–0
Sun, 12 Feb 2023	Serie A	Bologna v Monza	0–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Bologna v Monza?: Our model makes Bologna the more likely winner at 53%: Bologna 53%, draw 25%, Monza 22%. Monza lost 4 of 5 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bologna v Monza?: Over 2.5 goals is 52% and under 2.5 is 48%, with expected goals of 2.7. Over 2.5 in 7 of 8 Monza games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Bologna and Monza played recently?: Latest first: Bologna WLWDL, Monza LWLWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie ASerie AIntervFiorentina	O1.586%	72%	17%	11%	86%	67%	46%	53%	67%	86%	46%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AAtalantavFrosinone	O1.579%	56%	23%	20%	79%	56%	34%	53%	56%	79%	34%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AGenoavVenezia	U3.575%	39%	28%	33%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
17:00 · Serie ASerie ALeccevJuventus	U3.582%	18%	28%	54%	65%	37%	18%	47%	37%	65%	18%	47%
19:45 · Serie ASerie AUdinesevMilan	O1.575%	26%	26%	48%	75%	49%	27%	52%	49%	75%	27%	52%
Tue, 27 Oct 2026
17:30 · Serie ASerie ASassuolovLazio	O1.576%	32%	27%	41%	76%	51%	29%	53%	51%	76%	29%	53%

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