Lincoln City FC vs Birmingham City FC prediction

Championship · Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK

Lincoln City FC vs Birmingham City FC prediction (Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK): Lincoln City FC 25% · Draw 27% · Birmingham City FC 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 0.99–1.44. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (9%).

Published Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Lincoln City vs Birmingham preview

Lincoln City (18th, 12 pts) host Birmingham (4th, 20 pts) in the Championship. Lincoln City have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (WDLLL) and Birmingham 10 points from 5 (LWWWD), so Birmingham arrive in clearly better form. Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 5 league games.

Our model favours Birmingham at 47% to Lincoln City's 25%. Expected goals are 0.99 for Lincoln City and 1.44 for Birmingham, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 56%, while 62% of Championship matches go over 2.5.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 56%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Lincoln City FC vs Birmingham City FC?

Birmingham City FC are favoured at 47%, but the draw and a Lincoln City FC win together still account for 53%. Recent form: Lincoln City FC WDLLLW, Birmingham City FC LWWWDW (latest first).

Birmingham won 3 of 5 away games this season.

Lincoln City FC

25%

Draw

27%

Birmingham City FC

47%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 56%; Over 2.5 is 44%.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	70%	30%	1.43
2.5 goals	44%	56%	2.29
3.5 goals	23%	77%	4.41

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: Lincoln City FC score in about 63% of simulated outcomes and Birmingham City FC in about 76%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 7 of 11 Birmingham games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	51%	1.95
No	49%	2.05

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Lincoln City FC win	25%	3.94
Draw	27%	3.64
Birmingham City FC win	47%	2.12
Over 2.5	44%	2.29
Under 2.5	56%	1.78

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Lincoln City FC goals (rows) × Birmingham City FC goals (columns)
Lincoln \ Birmingham	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9%	12%	9%	4%	2%	0%
1	8%	13%	9%	4%	2%	0%
2	4%	6%	4%	2%	1%	0%
3	1%	2%	1%	1%	0%	0%
4	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

0-1

12%

0-0

0-2

1-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Lincoln City and Birmingham played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Lincoln City, last 5

Lincoln City, last 5 at home

Birmingham, last 5

Birmingham, last 5 away

Current streaks

Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 5 league games.
Lincoln City: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Lincoln City: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Lincoln City have not won in their last 4 league games.
Birmingham: at least one side failed to score in each of their last 3 league games.
Birmingham have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 league games.
Birmingham have won each of their last 3 league games.

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Lincoln City and Birmingham.

How Lincoln City and Birmingham compare this season

Stat	Lincoln City (home, 5)	Birmingham (away, 5)	Championship average
Over 1.5	80% (4/5)	60% (3/5)	77%
Over 2.5	60% (3/5)	60% (3/5)	62%
Over 3.5	40% (2/5)	0% (0/5)	37%
BTTS	60% (3/5)	60% (3/5)	64%
Win %	0% (0/5)	60% (3/5)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	0.60	1.20	1.45
Goals against per game	2.40	0.80	1.45

Championship average from 133 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Lincoln City	18	12	11
Birmingham	4	20	11

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Lincoln City v Birmingham?: Our model makes Birmingham the more likely winner at 47%: Lincoln City 25%, draw 27%, Birmingham 47%. Birmingham won 3 of 5 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lincoln City v Birmingham?: Over 2.5 goals is 44% and under 2.5 is 56%, with expected goals of 2.4. Model expects 2.4 total goals.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Lincoln City and Birmingham played recently?: Latest first: Lincoln City WDLLL, Birmingham LWWWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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