ProbaPredict

Millwall FC crest Millwall FC vs Derby County FC Derby County FC crest prediction

Championship · Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Millwall FC vs Derby County FC prediction (Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK): Millwall FC 48% · Draw 27% · Derby County FC 25%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.47–0.97. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (9%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Millwall vs Derby County preview

Millwall (12th, 15 pts) host Derby County (23rd, 6 pts) in the Championship. Millwall have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (LDLWD) and Derby County 3 points from 5 (DLLDD). Derby County have not won in their last 7 league games.

Our model favours Millwall at 48% to Derby County's 25%. Expected goals are 1.47 for Millwall and 0.97 for Derby County, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 56%, while 62% of Championship matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Millwall won 3, Derby County didn't win any and 2 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 56%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Millwall FC vs Derby County FC?

Millwall FC are favoured at 48%, but the draw and a Derby County FC win together still account for 52%. Recent form: Millwall FC LDLWDD, Derby County FC DLLDDL (latest first).

Derby County lost 3 of 5 away games this season.

Millwall FC48%
Draw27%
Derby County FC25%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 56%; Over 2.5 is 44%.

Under 2.5 in 4 of the last 5 meetings.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals70%30%1.42
2.5 goals44%56%2.27
3.5 goals23%77%4.36

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: Millwall FC score in about 77% of simulated outcomes and Derby County FC in about 62%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of 5 Derby County away games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes51%1.96
No49%2.05

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Millwall FC win48%2.08
Draw27%3.67
Derby County FC win25%4.06
Over 2.544%2.27
Under 2.556%1.79

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Millwall FC goals (rows) × Derby County FC goals (columns)
Millwall \ Derby012345
09%8%4%1%0%0%
112%13%6%2%0%0%
29%9%4%1%0%0%
35%4%2%1%0%0%
42%2%1%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-113%
1-012%
2-09%
0-09%
2-19%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Millwall and Derby County played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Millwall, last 5
  1. L 1–2 at Portsmouth
  2. D 2–2 v Lincoln City
  3. L 0–1 v Swansea
  4. W 1–0 at Preston NE
  5. D 2–2 v West Ham
Millwall, last 5 at home
  1. D 2–2 v Lincoln City
  2. L 0–1 v Swansea
  3. D 2–2 v West Ham
  4. W 4–0 v Bolton
  5. L 0–3 v Wrexham
Derby County, last 5
  1. D 1–1 at Sheffield Utd
  2. L 0–1 v Stoke
  3. L 1–4 at QPR
  4. D 1–1 v Wrexham
  5. D 1–1 at Burnley
Derby County, last 5 away
  1. D 1–1 at Sheffield Utd
  2. L 1–4 at QPR
  3. D 1–1 at Burnley
  4. L 0–3 at West Ham
  5. W 2–0 at Portsmouth

Current streaks

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Millwall and Derby County.

How Millwall and Derby County compare this season

StatMillwall (home, 6)Derby County (away, 5)Championship average
Over 1.583% (5/6)100% (5/5)77%
Over 2.583% (5/6)60% (3/5)62%
Over 3.550% (3/6)20% (1/5)37%
BTTS33% (2/6)60% (3/5)64%
Win %33% (2/6)20% (1/5)39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game1.831.001.45
Goals against per game1.332.001.45

Championship average from 133 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

TeamPosPtsP
Millwall121511
Derby County23611

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Millwall 3 wins, 2 draws, Derby County 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Tue, 10 Mar 2026ChampionshipMillwall v Derby County1–0
Wed, 10 Dec 2025ChampionshipDerby County v Millwall1–1
Sat, 22 Feb 2025ChampionshipDerby County v Millwall0–1
Sat, 19 Oct 2024ChampionshipMillwall v Derby County1–1
Wed, 23 Feb 2022ChampionshipDerby County v Millwall1–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Millwall v Derby County?
Our model makes Millwall the more likely winner at 48%: Millwall 48%, draw 27%, Derby County 25%. Derby County lost 3 of 5 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Millwall v Derby County?
Over 2.5 goals is 44% and under 2.5 is 56%, with expected goals of 2.4. Under 2.5 in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Millwall and Derby County played recently?
Latest first: Millwall LDLWD, Derby County DLLDD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Championship predictions
Fri, 30 Oct 2026
20:00 · EFL ChampSheffield United FC crestSheffield UtdWrexham AFC crestWrexhamO1.581%46%24%29%58%81%36%56%
Sat, 31 Oct 2026
12:30 · EFL ChampLincoln City FC crestLincoln CityBirmingham City FC crestBirminghamU3.577%25%27%47%44%70%23%51%
12:30 · EFL ChampStoke City FC crestStokePreston North End FC crestPreston NEU3.576%49%27%25%45%71%24%51%
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15:00 · EFL ChampSouthampton FC crestSouthamptonQueens Park Rangers FC crestQPRO1.580%58%22%19%58%80%35%54%
15:00 · EFL ChampWolverhampton Wanderers FC crestWolvesCardiff City FC crestCardiffO1.579%59%23%19%55%79%33%53%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sat, 31 Oct 2026
12:30 · Premier LgChelsea FC crestChelseaManchester United FC crestMan UnitedO1.584%46%25%29%62%84%40%60%
13:00 · La LigaLevante UD crestLevanteClub Atlético de Madrid crestAtletiO1.580%22%24%54%57%80%34%55%
14:00 · Serie ABologna FC 1909 crestBolognaAC Monza crestMonzaO1.576%53%25%22%52%76%30%52%
14:30 · BundesligaFC Augsburg crestAugsburgSC Freiburg crestFreiburgO1.580%39%25%36%58%80%35%61%
14:30 · BundesligaBayer 04 Leverkusen crestLeverkusenVfB Stuttgart crestStuttgartO1.586%53%22%25%66%86%44%63%