Southampton FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC prediction

Championship · Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Southampton FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC prediction (Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK): Southampton FC 58% · Draw 22% · Queens Park Rangers FC 19%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.96–1.05. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 54%, No 46%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%).

Published Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Southampton vs QPR preview

Southampton (8th, 17 pts) host QPR (9th, 17 pts) in the Championship. Southampton have taken 10 points from their last 5 games (WDWWL) and QPR 8 points from 5 (WLWDD). QPR: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.

Our model makes Southampton clear favourites at 58%, with QPR at 19%. Expected goals are 1.96 for Southampton and 1.05 for QPR, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 54%, against 64% across the Championship. In their last 4 meetings, Southampton won all 4; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Southampton to win is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Southampton FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC?

Southampton FC are clear favourites at 58%, with Queens Park Rangers FC at 19%. Recent form: Southampton FC WDWWLW, Queens Park Rangers FC WLWDDD (latest first).

Southampton won 5 of 6 home games this season.

Southampton FC

58%

Draw

22%

Queens Park Rangers FC

19%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 58% and Under 2.5 is 42%.

Over 2.5 in 4 of 6 Southampton home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	80%	20%	1.24
2.5 goals	58%	42%	1.73
3.5 goals	35%	65%	2.83

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance: Southampton FC score in about 86% of simulated outcomes and Queens Park Rangers FC in about 65%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 8 of 11 Southampton games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	54%	1.85
No	46%	2.18

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Southampton FC win	58%	1.72
Draw	22%	4.46
Queens Park Rangers FC win	19%	5.14
Over 2.5	58%	1.73
Under 2.5	42%	2.37

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.0 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Southampton FC goals (rows) × Queens Park Rangers FC goals (columns)
Southampton \ Queens	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
1	9%	11%	5%	2%	0%	0%
2	10%	10%	5%	2%	0%	0%
3	6%	6%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

11%

2-1

10%

2-0

10%

1-0

3-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Southampton and QPR played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Southampton, last 5

Southampton, last 5 at home

QPR, last 5

QPR, last 5 away

Current streaks

QPR: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
Southampton: at least one side failed to score in each of their last 3 league games.
Southampton have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 league games.
Southampton: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Southampton are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Southampton and QPR.

How Southampton and QPR compare this season

Stat	Southampton (home, 6)	QPR (away, 6)	Championship average
Over 1.5	67% (4/6)	83% (5/6)	77%
Over 2.5	67% (4/6)	50% (3/6)	62%
Over 3.5	67% (4/6)	17% (1/6)	37%
BTTS	67% (4/6)	67% (4/6)	64%
Win %	83% (5/6)	33% (2/6)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	2.67	1.17	1.45
Goals against per game	0.67	1.17	1.45

Championship average from 133 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Southampton	8	17	11
QPR	9	17	11

Includes a 4-point deduction for Southampton.

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Southampton 4 wins, 0 draws, QPR 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Tue, 24 Feb 2026	Championship	Southampton v QPR	5–0
Wed, 5 Nov 2025	Championship	QPR v Southampton	1–2
Sat, 23 Dec 2023	Championship	QPR v Southampton	0–1
Sat, 26 Aug 2023	Championship	Southampton v QPR	2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Southampton v QPR?: Our model makes Southampton the more likely winner at 58%: Southampton 58%, draw 22%, QPR 19%. Southampton won 5 of 6 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Southampton v QPR?: Over 2.5 goals is 58% and under 2.5 is 42%, with expected goals of 3.0. Over 2.5 in 4 of 6 Southampton home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Southampton and QPR played recently?: Latest first: Southampton WDWWL, QPR WLWDD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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