ProbaPredict

Coventry City FC crest Coventry City FC vs Sunderland AFC Sunderland AFC crest prediction

Premier League · Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Coventry City FC vs Sunderland AFC prediction (Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK): Coventry City FC 45% · Draw 28% · Sunderland AFC 27%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.42–1.05. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 55%, No 45%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-1 (9%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Coventry City vs Sunderland preview

Coventry City (17th, 6 pts) host Sunderland (20th, 4 pts) in the Premier League. Coventry City have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (LLWWL) and Sunderland 1 point from 5 (LLLLD). Sunderland: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.

Our model favours Coventry City at 45% to Sunderland's 27%. Expected goals are 1.42 for Coventry City and 1.05 for Sunderland, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 55%, while 54% of Premier League matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Coventry City won 3, Sunderland didn't win any and 2 ended level; 4 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 55%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Coventry City FC vs Sunderland AFC?

Coventry City FC are favoured at 45%, but the draw and a Sunderland AFC win together still account for 55%. Recent form: Coventry City FC LLWWLL, Sunderland AFC LLLLDW (latest first).

Sunderland lost 3 of 4 away games this season.

Coventry City FC45%
Draw28%
Sunderland AFC27%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 55%; Over 2.5 is 45%.

Under 2.5 in 5 of 7 Sunderland games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals71%29%1.41
2.5 goals45%55%2.23
3.5 goals24%76%4.25

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance: Coventry City FC score in about 76% of simulated outcomes and Sunderland AFC in about 65%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of 4 Sunderland away games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes55%1.83
No45%2.21

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Coventry City FC win45%2.22
Draw28%3.63
Sunderland AFC win27%3.64
Over 2.545%2.23
Under 2.555%1.81

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Coventry City FC goals (rows) × Sunderland AFC goals (columns)
Coventry \ Sunderland012345
09%8%5%2%0%0%
112%13%7%2%1%0%
29%9%5%2%0%0%
34%4%2%1%0%0%
41%2%1%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-113%
1-012%
2-19%
0-09%
2-09%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Coventry City and Sunderland played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Coventry City, last 5
  1. L 0–1 v Fulham
  2. L 1–3 at Tottenham
  3. W 4–1 v Newcastle
  4. W 1–0 at Nottingham
  5. L 0–5 v Brighton
Coventry City, last 5 at home
  1. L 0–1 v Fulham
  2. W 4–1 v Newcastle
  3. L 0–5 v Brighton
  4. L 0–1 v Hull City
  5. W 3–1 v Wrexham
Sunderland, last 5
  1. L 0–2 at Bournemouth
  2. L 0–2 v Brighton
  3. L 3–5 at Man City
  4. L 0–2 v Arsenal
  5. D 1–1 at Brentford
Sunderland, last 5 away
  1. L 0–2 at Bournemouth
  2. L 3–5 at Man City
  3. D 1–1 at Brentford
  4. L 1–2 at Ipswich Town
  5. W 3–1 at Everton

Current streaks

Premier League games only, runs of three or more. Coventry City and Sunderland.

How Coventry City and Sunderland compare this season

StatCoventry City (home, 3)Sunderland (away, 4)Premier League average
Over 1.567% (2/3)100% (4/4)76%
Over 2.567% (2/3)50% (2/4)54%
Over 3.567% (2/3)25% (1/4)35%
BTTS33% (1/3)75% (3/4)54%
Win %33% (1/3)0% (0/4)39% home · 31% away
Goals for per game1.331.251.44
Goals against per game2.332.501.44

Premier League average from 71 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Premier League table

TeamPosPtsP
Coventry City1767
Sunderland2047

Full Premier League table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Coventry City 3 wins, 2 draws, Sunderland 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sat, 15 Mar 2025ChampionshipCoventry City v Sunderland3–0
Sat, 9 Nov 2024ChampionshipSunderland v Coventry City2–2
Sat, 23 Dec 2023ChampionshipSunderland v Coventry City0–3
Sat, 26 Aug 2023ChampionshipCoventry City v Sunderland0–0
Sat, 25 Feb 2023ChampionshipCoventry City v Sunderland2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Coventry City v Sunderland?
Our model makes Coventry City the more likely winner at 45%: Coventry City 45%, draw 28%, Sunderland 27%. Sunderland lost 3 of 4 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Coventry City v Sunderland?
Over 2.5 goals is 45% and under 2.5 is 55%, with expected goals of 2.5. Under 2.5 in 5 of 7 Sunderland games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Coventry City and Sunderland played recently?
Latest first: Coventry City LLWWL, Sunderland LLLLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Premier League predictions
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
14:00 · Premier LgManchester United FC crestMan UnitedAFC Bournemouth crestBournemouthO1.582%44%25%31%59%82%37%60%
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16:30 · Premier LgSunderland AFC crestSunderlandLeeds United FC crestLeedsU3.574%34%28%37%47%74%26%56%
Sat, 31 Oct 2026
12:30 · Premier LgChelsea FC crestChelseaManchester United FC crestMan UnitedO1.584%46%25%29%62%84%40%60%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
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Sat, 31 Oct 2026
12:30 · EFL ChampLincoln City FC crestLincoln CityBirmingham City FC crestBirminghamU3.577%25%27%47%44%70%23%51%
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