Bolton Wanderers FC vs Middlesbrough FC prediction

Championship · Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK

Bolton Wanderers FC vs Middlesbrough FC prediction (Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): Bolton Wanderers FC 33% · Draw 25% · Middlesbrough FC 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.38–1.59. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 56%, No 44%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%).

Published Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Bolton vs Middlesbrough preview

Bolton (15th, 14 pts) host Middlesbrough (3rd, 22 pts) in the Championship. Bolton have taken 10 points from their last 5 games (DWLWW) and Middlesbrough 9 points from 5 (DWWDD). Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 9 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Bolton 33%, Middlesbrough 42%. Expected goals are 1.38 for Bolton and 1.59 for Middlesbrough, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

The goal markets sit close to the Championship norm: Over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 56%.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 57%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Bolton Wanderers FC vs Middlesbrough FC?

This is close to a coin flip: Bolton Wanderers FC 33%, Middlesbrough FC 42%, with the draw at 25%. Recent form: Bolton Wanderers FC DWLWWL, Middlesbrough FC DWWDDW (latest first).

Bolton lost 3 of 5 home games this season.

Bolton Wanderers FC

33%

Draw

25%

Middlesbrough FC

42%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 57% and Under 2.5 is 43%.

Over 2.5 in 8 of 11 Middlesbrough games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	80%	20%	1.25
2.5 goals	57%	43%	1.76
3.5 goals	34%	66%	2.91

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance: Bolton Wanderers FC score in about 75% of simulated outcomes and Middlesbrough FC in about 80%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 9 of 11 Middlesbrough games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	56%	1.80
No	44%	2.26

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Bolton Wanderers FC win	33%	3.05
Draw	25%	3.98
Middlesbrough FC win	42%	2.38
Over 2.5	57%	1.76
Under 2.5	43%	2.32

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.0 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Bolton Wanderers FC goals (rows) × Middlesbrough FC goals (columns)
Bolton \ Middlesbrough	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	8%	7%	3%	1%	0%
1	7%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%
2	5%	8%	6%	3%	1%	0%
3	2%	4%	3%	1%	1%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

1-2

0-1

2-1

1-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Bolton and Middlesbrough played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Bolton, last 5

Bolton, last 5 at home

Middlesbrough, last 5

Middlesbrough, last 5 away

Current streaks

Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 9 league games.

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Bolton and Middlesbrough.

How Bolton and Middlesbrough compare this season

Stat	Bolton (home, 5)	Middlesbrough (away, 5)	Championship average
Over 1.5	60% (3/5)	80% (4/5)	77%
Over 2.5	60% (3/5)	60% (3/5)	61%
Over 3.5	20% (1/5)	40% (2/5)	36%
BTTS	60% (3/5)	80% (4/5)	64%
Win %	40% (2/5)	40% (2/5)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	1.20	1.60	1.44
Goals against per game	1.40	1.40	1.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Bolton	15	14	11
Middlesbrough	3	22	11

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Bolton v Middlesbrough?: Our model makes Middlesbrough the more likely winner at 42%: Bolton 33%, draw 25%, Middlesbrough 42%. Bolton lost 3 of 5 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bolton v Middlesbrough?: Over 2.5 goals is 57% and under 2.5 is 43%, with expected goals of 3.0. Over 2.5 in 8 of 11 Middlesbrough games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Bolton and Middlesbrough played recently?: Latest first: Bolton DWLWW, Middlesbrough DWWDD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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