Liverpool FC vs Arsenal FC prediction

Premier League · Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 16:30 UK

Liverpool FC vs Arsenal FC prediction (Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 16:30 UK): Liverpool FC 31% · Draw 29% · Arsenal FC 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.17–1.36. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 56%, No 44%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%).

Published Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK · Updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Liverpool vs Arsenal preview

Liverpool (5th, 12 pts) host Arsenal (2nd, 18 pts) in the Premier League. Liverpool have taken 12 points from their last 5 games (WWWLW) and Arsenal 10 points from 5 (DWWWL). Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Liverpool 31%, Arsenal 40%. Expected goals are 1.17 for Liverpool and 1.36 for Arsenal, and the most likely score is 1-1 (14%).

The goal markets sit close to the Premier League norm: Over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 56%. In their last 5 meetings, Liverpool won 1, Arsenal won 1 and 3 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 56%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Liverpool FC vs Arsenal FC?

This is close to a coin flip: Liverpool FC 31%, Arsenal FC 40%, with the draw at 29%. Recent form: Liverpool FC WWWLWD, Arsenal FC DWWWLW (latest first).

Arsenal won 3 of 4 away games this season.

Liverpool FC

31%

Draw

29%

Arsenal FC

40%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 46% and Under 2.5 is 54%.

Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Arsenal away games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	73%	27%	1.38
2.5 goals	46%	54%	2.16
3.5 goals	25%	75%	4.04

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance: Liverpool FC score in about 69% of simulated outcomes and Arsenal FC in about 74%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 26 of 38 Liverpool games last season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	56%	1.80
No	44%	2.25

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Liverpool FC win	31%	3.21
Draw	29%	3.50
Arsenal FC win	40%	2.48
Over 2.5	46%	2.16
Under 2.5	54%	1.86

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Liverpool FC goals (rows) × Arsenal FC goals (columns)
Liverpool \ Arsenal	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9%	10%	7%	3%	1%	0%
1	8%	14%	9%	4%	1%	0%
2	5%	7%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

14%

0-1

10%

0-0

1-2

1-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Liverpool and Arsenal played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Liverpool, last 5

Liverpool, last 5 at home

Arsenal, last 5

Arsenal, last 5 away

Current streaks

Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.
Arsenal have won each of their last 3 league games.

Premier League games only, runs of three or more. Liverpool and Arsenal.

How Liverpool and Arsenal compare this season

Stat	Liverpool (home, 3)	Arsenal (away, 4)	Premier League average
Over 1.5	67% (2/3)	50% (2/4)	76%
Over 2.5	67% (2/3)	25% (1/4)	52%
Over 3.5	33% (1/3)	0% (0/4)	33%
BTTS	33% (1/3)	0% (0/4)	52%
Win %	0% (0/3)	75% (3/4)	40% home · 32% away
Goals for per game	0.67	1.00	1.42
Goals against per game	1.67	0.75	1.42

Premier League average from 75 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Premier League table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Liverpool	5	12	7
Arsenal	2	18	7

Full Premier League table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Liverpool 1 win, 3 draws, Arsenal 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Thu, 8 Jan 2026	Premier League	Arsenal v Liverpool	0–0
Sun, 31 Aug 2025	Premier League	Liverpool v Arsenal	1–0
Sun, 11 May 2025	Premier League	Liverpool v Arsenal	2–2
Sun, 27 Oct 2024	Premier League	Arsenal v Liverpool	2–2
Sun, 4 Feb 2024	Premier League	Arsenal v Liverpool	3–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Liverpool v Arsenal?: Our model makes Arsenal the more likely winner at 40%: Liverpool 31%, draw 29%, Arsenal 40%. Arsenal won 3 of 4 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Liverpool v Arsenal?: Over 2.5 goals is 46% and under 2.5 is 54%, with expected goals of 2.5. Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Arsenal away games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Liverpool and Arsenal played recently?: Latest first: Liverpool WWWLW, Arsenal DWWWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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