Eredivisie · Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 13:30 UK
SBV Excelsior vs FC Twente '65 prediction (Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 13:30 UK): SBV Excelsior 26% · Draw 24% · FC Twente '65 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.20–1.76. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 58%, No 42%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Excelsior vs Twente preview
Excelsior (10th, 11 pts) host Twente (5th, 17 pts) in the Eredivisie. Excelsior have taken 2 points from their last 5 games (LLDLD) and Twente 10 points from 5 (LDWWW), so Twente arrive in clearly better form. Excelsior: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 18 league games.
Our model favours Twente at 50% to Excelsior's 26%. Expected goals are 1.20 for Excelsior and 1.76 for Twente, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).
Over 2.5 goals is 57%, below the Eredivisie rate of 75%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Eredivisie match. In their last 5 meetings, Excelsior won 1, Twente won 2 and 2 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win SBV Excelsior vs FC Twente '65?
FC Twente '65 are favoured at 50%, but the draw and a SBV Excelsior win together still account for 50%. Recent form: SBV Excelsior LLDLDW, FC Twente '65 LDWWWD (latest first).
Excelsior lost 3 of 4 home games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 57% and Under 2.5 is 43%.
Over 2.5 in all 9 Excelsior games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 80% | 20% | 1.25 |
| 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | 1.76 |
| 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | 2.92 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance: SBV Excelsior score in about 70% of simulated outcomes and FC Twente '65 in about 83%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in all 4 Excelsior home games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 26% | 3.90 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 |
| FC Twente '65 win | 50% | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 3.0 total goals.
| SBV \ FC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 9% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 1 | 6% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 | 4% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 3 | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| 4 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Excelsior and Twente played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Excelsior: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 18 league games.
- Excelsior: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 10 league games.
- Excelsior have not won in their last 5 league games.
- Twente: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
- Twente: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Eredivisie games only, runs of three or more. Excelsior and Twente.
How Excelsior and Twente compare this season
| Stat | Excelsior (home, 4) | Twente (away, 4) | Eredivisie average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 100% (4/4) | 75% (3/4) | 92% |
| Over 2.5 | 100% (4/4) | 50% (2/4) | 75% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% (1/4) | 50% (2/4) | 64% |
| BTTS | 100% (4/4) | 75% (3/4) | 73% |
| Win % | 25% (1/4) | 25% (1/4) | 32% home · 40% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.25 | 1.75 | 1.94 |
| Goals against per game | 2.50 | 1.25 | 1.94 |
Eredivisie average from 85 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Eredivisie table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| Twente | 5 | 17 | 9 |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Excelsior 1 win, 2 draws, Twente 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 1 of 5.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 24 Jan 2026 | Eredivisie | Twente v Excelsior | 0–0 |
| Sat, 30 Aug 2025 | Eredivisie | Excelsior v Twente | 1–0 |
| Sat, 10 Feb 2024 | Eredivisie | Excelsior v Twente | 0–3 |
| Fri, 8 Dec 2023 | Eredivisie | Twente v Excelsior | 4–2 |
| Sat, 1 Apr 2023 | Eredivisie | Excelsior v Twente | 0–0 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Excelsior v Twente?
- Our model makes Twente the more likely winner at 50%: Excelsior 26%, draw 24%, Twente 50%. Excelsior lost 3 of 4 home games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Excelsior v Twente?
- Over 2.5 goals is 57% and under 2.5 is 43%, with expected goals of 3.0. Over 2.5 in all 9 Excelsior games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Excelsior and Twente played recently?
- Latest first: Excelsior LLDLD, Twente LDWWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- SBV Excelsior
- FC Twente '65
- Eredivisie predictions
- Eredivisie table
- Eredivisie Home win
- Eredivisie Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Eredivisie predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11:15 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.581% | 44% | 25% | 32% | 59% | 81% | 36% | 59% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.585% | 52% | 22% | 25% | 64% | 85% | 42% | 60% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.591% | 55% | 20% | 25% | 76% | 91% | 56% | 64% |
15:45 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.583% | 24% | 23% | 53% | 61% | 83% | 39% | 59% |
19:00 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.577% | 42% | 26% | 32% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 57% |
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
| 15:30 · EredivisieEredivisie | O1.588% | 75% | 15% | 10% | 71% | 88% | 50% | 58% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 1 Nov 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11:15 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.584% | 43% | 24% | 33% | 63% | 84% | 41% | 61% |
11:30 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.580% | 61% | 22% | 17% | 57% | 80% | 34% | 52% |
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | U3.587% | 37% | 32% | 30% | 31% | 58% | 13% | 48% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.582% | 37% | 25% | 38% | 59% | 82% | 37% | 60% |
14:00 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.581% | 54% | 23% | 23% | 59% | 81% | 36% | 57% |