Ligue 1 · Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 14:00 UK
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs AJ Auxerre prediction (Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 14:00 UK): RC Strasbourg Alsace 54% · Draw 23% · AJ Auxerre 23%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.87–1.16. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 57%, No 43%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Strasbourg vs Auxerre preview
Strasbourg (14th, 7 pts) host Auxerre (13th, 9 pts) in the Ligue 1. Strasbourg have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (LLLDW) and Auxerre 9 points from 5 (WLWWL). Strasbourg: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 15 league games.
Our model makes Strasbourg clear favourites at 54%, with Auxerre at 23%. Expected goals are 1.87 for Strasbourg and 1.16 for Auxerre, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).
The goal markets sit close to the Ligue 1 norm: Over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 57%. In their last 5 meetings, Strasbourg won 4, Auxerre didn't win any and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 59%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win RC Strasbourg Alsace vs AJ Auxerre?
RC Strasbourg Alsace are clear favourites at 54%, with AJ Auxerre at 23%. Recent form: RC Strasbourg Alsace LLLDWW, AJ Auxerre WLWWLL (latest first).
Auxerre lost 3 of 4 away games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 59% and Under 2.5 is 41%.
Over 2.5 in all 4 Auxerre away games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 81% | 19% | 1.23 |
| 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | 1.71 |
| 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | 2.77 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance: RC Strasbourg Alsace score in about 85% of simulated outcomes and AJ Auxerre in about 69%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in all 4 Auxerre away games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.34 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 54% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 |
| AJ Auxerre win | 23% | 4.32 |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.41 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 3.0 total goals.
| RC \ AJ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 1 | 9% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 5% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Strasbourg and Auxerre played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Strasbourg: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 15 league games.
- Strasbourg: both teams scored in each of their last 6 league games.
- Strasbourg have not won in their last 4 league games.
- Auxerre: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
- Auxerre: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
- Auxerre: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
- Strasbourg have lost each of their last 3 league games.
- Strasbourg: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Ligue 1 games only, runs of three or more. Strasbourg and Auxerre.
How Strasbourg and Auxerre compare this season
| Stat | Strasbourg (home, 3) | Auxerre (away, 4) | Ligue 1 average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 100% (3/3) | 100% (4/4) | 80% |
| Over 2.5 | 67% (2/3) | 100% (4/4) | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% (1/3) | 100% (4/4) | 37% |
| BTTS | 100% (3/3) | 100% (4/4) | 65% |
| Win % | 33% (1/3) | 25% (1/4) | 45% home · 32% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.33 | 1.75 | 1.52 |
| Goals against per game | 1.67 | 3.25 | 1.52 |
Ligue 1 average from 65 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Ligue 1 table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | 14 | 7 | 7 |
| Auxerre | 13 | 9 | 7 |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Strasbourg 4 wins, 1 draw, Auxerre 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 1 of 5.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 7 Mar 2026 | Ligue 1 | Auxerre v Strasbourg | 0–0 |
| Wed, 29 Oct 2025 | Ligue 1 | Strasbourg v Auxerre | 3–0 |
| Sun, 2 Mar 2025 | Ligue 1 | Auxerre v Strasbourg | 0–1 |
| Sun, 5 Jan 2025 | Ligue 1 | Strasbourg v Auxerre | 3–1 |
| Sun, 19 Mar 2023 | Ligue 1 | Strasbourg v Auxerre | 2–0 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Strasbourg v Auxerre?
- Our model makes Strasbourg the more likely winner at 54%: Strasbourg 54%, draw 23%, Auxerre 23%. Auxerre lost 3 of 4 away games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Strasbourg v Auxerre?
- Over 2.5 goals is 59% and under 2.5 is 41%, with expected goals of 3.0. Over 2.5 in all 4 Auxerre away games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Strasbourg and Auxerre played recently?
- Latest first: Strasbourg LLLDW, Auxerre WLWWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- RC Strasbourg Alsace
- AJ Auxerre
- Ligue 1 predictions
- Ligue 1 table
- Ligue 1 Home win
- Ligue 1 Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14:00 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.577% | 44% | 26% | 30% | 52% | 77% | 30% | 56% |
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.579% | 66% | 20% | 14% | 56% | 79% | 34% | 54% |
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.575% | 45% | 27% | 29% | 49% | 75% | 27% | 55% |
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.578% | 58% | 23% | 19% | 54% | 78% | 31% | 55% |
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.587% | 48% | 22% | 29% | 68% | 87% | 47% | 61% |
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | U3.577% | 29% | 28% | 43% | 45% | 71% | 23% | 54% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 1 Nov 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11:15 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.584% | 43% | 24% | 33% | 63% | 84% | 41% | 61% |
11:30 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.580% | 61% | 22% | 17% | 57% | 80% | 34% | 52% |
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | U3.587% | 37% | 32% | 30% | 31% | 58% | 13% | 48% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.582% | 37% | 25% | 38% | 59% | 82% | 37% | 60% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.580% | 26% | 24% | 50% | 57% | 80% | 34% | 58% |