FC Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund prediction

Bundesliga · Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK

FC Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund prediction (Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK): FC Bayern München 68% · Draw 17% · Borussia Dortmund 16%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%. Most likely score: 2-1. Expected goals 2.75–1.30. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 64%, No 36%. Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (7%).

Published Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Bayern vs Dortmund preview

Bayern (1st, 14 pts) host Dortmund (2nd, 14 pts) in the Bundesliga. Bayern have taken 9 points from their last 5 games (DWDDW) and Dortmund 8 points from 5 (WDLDW). Bayern are unbeaten in their last 21 league games.

Our model makes Bayern clear favourites at 68%, with Dortmund at 16%. Expected goals are 2.75 for Bayern and 1.30 for Dortmund, and the most likely score is 2-1 (9%).

The goal markets sit close to the Bundesliga norm: Over 2.5 at 77% and both teams to score at 64%. In their last 5 meetings, Bayern won 2, Dortmund won 1 and 2 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 77%, which still fails about 2 times in 10.

Who will win FC Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?

FC Bayern München are clear favourites at 68%, with Borussia Dortmund at 16%. Recent form: FC Bayern München DWDDWW, Borussia Dortmund WDLDWW (latest first).

Bayern won all 3 home games this season.

FC Bayern München

68%

Draw

17%

Borussia Dortmund

16%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 goals is likely at 77%.

Over 2.5 in all 3 Bayern home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	91%	9%	1.09
2.5 goals	77%	23%	1.30
3.5 goals	58%	42%	1.74

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 64% chance: FC Bayern München score in about 94% of simulated outcomes and Borussia Dortmund in about 74%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 4 of 6 Bayern games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	64%	1.56
No	36%	2.78

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
FC Bayern München win	68%	1.48
Draw	17%	5.95
Borussia Dortmund win	16%	6.39
Over 2.5	77%	1.30
Under 2.5	23%	4.33

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

Share:X WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 4.0 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: FC Bayern München goals (rows) × Borussia Dortmund goals (columns)
FC \ Borussia	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	2%	2%	1%	1%	0%	0%
1	5%	6%	4%	2%	1%	0%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%	1%	0%
3	6%	8%	5%	2%	1%	0%
4	4%	5%	4%	2%	1%	0%
5	2%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
Other	6% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

2-1

3-1

2-0

1-1

3-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Bayern and Dortmund played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Current streaks

Bayern are unbeaten in their last 21 league games.
Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.
Bayern: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Bayern: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.

Bundesliga games only, runs of three or more. Bayern and Dortmund.

How Bayern and Dortmund compare this season

Stat	Bayern (home, 3)	Dortmund (away, 3)	Bundesliga average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	33% (1/3)	82%
Over 2.5	100% (3/3)	33% (1/3)	75%
Over 3.5	100% (3/3)	33% (1/3)	56%
BTTS	67% (2/3)	33% (1/3)	60%
Win %	100% (3/3)	67% (2/3)	51% home · 29% away
Goals for per game	6.00	1.33	1.85
Goals against per game	0.67	0.67	1.85

Bundesliga average from 55 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Bundesliga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Bayern	1	14	6
Dortmund	2	14	6

Full Bundesliga table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Bayern 2 wins, 2 draws, Dortmund 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 4 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 28 Feb 2026	Bundesliga	Dortmund v Bayern	2–3
Sat, 18 Oct 2025	Bundesliga	Bayern v Dortmund	2–1
Sat, 12 Apr 2025	Bundesliga	Bayern v Dortmund	2–2
Sat, 30 Nov 2024	Bundesliga	Dortmund v Bayern	1–1
Sat, 30 Mar 2024	Bundesliga	Bayern v Dortmund	0–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Bayern v Dortmund?: Our model makes Bayern the more likely winner at 68%: Bayern 68%, draw 17%, Dortmund 16%. Bayern won all 3 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bayern v Dortmund?: Over 2.5 goals is 77% and under 2.5 is 23%, with expected goals of 4.0. Over 2.5 in all 3 Bayern home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 2-1 at 9%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Bayern and Dortmund played recently?: Latest first: Bayern DWDDW, Dortmund WDLDW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Sun, 25 Oct 2026
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaHoffenheimvLeverkusen	O1.588%	28%	22%	50%	88%	70%	48%	64%	70%	88%	48%	64%
16:30 · BundesligaBundesligaFreiburgvBayern	O1.591%	14%	16%	69%	91%	77%	57%	63%	77%	91%	57%	63%
Fri, 30 Oct 2026
19:30 · BundesligaBundesligaElversbergvMainz	O1.580%	41%	25%	34%	80%	58%	35%	61%	58%	80%	35%	61%
Sat, 31 Oct 2026
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaAugsburgvFreiburg	O1.580%	39%	25%	36%	80%	58%	35%	61%	58%	80%	35%	61%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaLeverkusenvStuttgart	O1.586%	53%	22%	25%	86%	66%	44%	63%	66%	86%	44%	63%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaWerder BremenvHoffenheim	O1.585%	40%	24%	37%	85%	65%	43%	63%	65%	85%	43%	63%

Other matches the same day