England Premier League under 3.5 goals predictions & stats
Our Premier League predictions cover every upcoming match with home, draw, away and Over/Under goals probabilities.
Under 3.5 goals means the match has 3 or fewer goals in normal time: for example 2-1 or 1-1. What does Under 2.5 goals mean?
77% is the highest Under 3.5 goals probability in the Premier League this week: Coventry City FC vs Sunderland AFC, from ProbaPredict's statistical model.
Out of 75 England Premier League matches played this season, 50 finished with under 3.5 goals (67%). Last season: 272 of 380 (72%), averaging 2.75 goals per game.
10 matches ranked by under 3.5 goals probability; the highest is Coventry City FC vs Sunderland AFC at 77%.
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Fair odds | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||||
16:30 · Premier LgPremier League  | 74% | 1.35 | U3.574% | 34% | 28% | 37% | 47% | 74% | 26% | 56% |
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||||||
15:00 · Premier LgPremier League | 77% | 1.30 | U3.577% | 45% | 28% | 28% | 44% | 71% | 23% | 55% |
20:00 · Premier LgPremier League  | 72% | 1.40 | O1.576% | 45% | 27% | 28% | 50% | 76% | 28% | 57% |
15:00 · Premier LgPremier League  | 70% | 1.44 | O1.577% | 36% | 26% | 37% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 57% |
17:30 · Premier LgPremier League  | 69% | 1.45 | O1.578% | 40% | 27% | 33% | 53% | 78% | 31% | 58% |
15:00 · Premier LgPremier League  | 69% | 1.46 | O1.578% | 48% | 26% | 26% | 54% | 78% | 31% | 57% |
15:00 · Premier LgPremier League Bournemouth | 67% | 1.50 | O1.580% | 47% | 26% | 27% | 56% | 80% | 33% | 58% |
12:30 · Premier LgPremier League  | 60% | 1.65 | O1.584% | 46% | 25% | 29% | 62% | 84% | 40% | 60% |
15:00 · Premier LgPremier League  | 60% | 1.67 | O1.584% | 55% | 23% | 22% | 62% | 84% | 40% | 59% |
| Sun, 1 Nov 2026 | ||||||||||
16:30 · Premier LgPremier League  | 75% | 1.33 | U3.575% | 31% | 29% | 40% | 46% | 73% | 25% | 56% |
Best Premier League teams for Under 3.5
All games, this season. Rate = share of games with under 3.5 goals. Download CSV
| Team | Hits | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | 100% | 76% | 100% | 100% | at Liverpool 75% |
| 7 | 6 | 86% | 63% | 75% | 100% | at Sunderland 74% |
| 7 | 6 | 86% | 82% | 100% | 75% | v Leeds 74% |
 | 8 | 6 | 75% | 79% | 75% | 75% | – |
| 8 | 6 | 75% | 74% | 50% | 100% | v Crystal Palace 69% |
| 8 | 6 | 75% | 76% | 50% | 100% | at Aston Villa 72% |
| 8 | 6 | 75% | 74% | 100% | 50% | at Brentford 69% |
| 7 | 5 | 71% | 63% | 67% | 75% | at Chelsea 60% |
| 7 | 5 | 71% | – | 67% | 75% | v Ipswich Town 70% |
| 7 | 5 | 71% | 71% | 67% | 75% | v Arsenal 75% |
| 7 | 5 | 71% | 63% | 100% | 33% | v Nottingham 69% |
| Premier League average 67% | |||||||
| 8 | 5 | 63% | – | 100% | 25% | at Hull City 70% |
| 8 | 5 | 63% | – | 50% | 75% | v Sunderland 77% |
| 8 | 5 | 63% | 79% | 50% | 75% | v Brighton 60% |
| 8 | 5 | 63% | 71% | 75% | 50% | v Fulham 72% |
| Bournemouth | 7 | 4 | 57% | 58% | 75% | 33% | v Leeds 67% |
| 8 | 4 | 50% | 68% | 25% | 75% | v Man United 60% |
 | 7 | 3 | 43% | 66% | 50% | 33% | – |
| 7 | 3 | 43% | 82% | 50% | 33% | at Man City 60% |
| 7 | 2 | 29% | 79% | 0% | 50% | at Tottenham 69% |
Who are the best teams in the Premier League for Under 3.5 goals?
This season, the Premier League teams with the highest share of games with under 3.5 goals are Arsenal (8 of 8, 100%), Leeds (6 of 7, 86%), Sunderland (6 of 7 and 86%). The Premier League average is 67%. Small samples swing quickly, so read the counts as well as the percentages.
Premier League Under 3.5 goals facts
- In 2025-26, 272 of 380 England Premier League matches finished with under 3.5 goals (72%), with 2.75 goals per game.
- This season (2026-27), 50 of 75 Premier League matches have finished with under 3.5 goals (67%).
- Across 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1045 of 1595 Premier League matches finished with under 3.5 goals (66%).
- Under 3.5 in 31 of 38 Sunderland games in 2025-26 (82%), the highest rate in the Premier League.
- Under 3.5 in 22 of 38 Bournemouth games in 2025-26 (58%), the lowest rate in the Premier League.
- Man United games averaged 3.13 goals in 2025-26, the most of any Premier League side.
Our Premier League Under 3.5 picks: 68% correct from 25 graded matches (back-test 66% from 1,463). See the accuracy record.
What does Under 3.5 goals mean in football predictions?
Under 3.5 goals looks only at the total number of goals scored by both teams in normal time. Under 3.5 needs three or fewer goals. Who scores them does not matter, and extra time does not count.
Our model predicts each team's expected goals from its attacking strength and the opponent's defensive record, adjusted for home advantage and recent form. It then spreads those expectations across every scoreline from 0-0 to 10-10, applies a small correction for low-scoring draws, and adds up every scoreline that lands under the 3.5 line.
To convert the percentage into fair decimal odds, divide 100 by it: 60% becomes 1.67 and 45% becomes 2.22. Fair odds carry no bookmaker margin. A 70% under still misses roughly three times in ten, which is exactly what a calibrated model should do. The list below is ranked from the highest probability to the lowest.
New to this? Read: What does Under 2.5 goals mean? · Which league has the most goals?
These football predictions rank matches by probability while keeping the uncertainty visible.
More football predictions
Frequently asked questions
- How often does Under 3.5 land in the Premier League?
- Out of 75 England Premier League matches played this season, 50 finished with under 3.5 goals (67%). Last season: 272 of 380 (72%), averaging 2.75 goals per game.
- Which Premier League team has the most Under 3.5 games?
- Under 3.5 in all 8 Arsenal games this season (100%), the highest rate in the Premier League.
- What is the most likely Under 3.5 pick this matchday?
- Coventry City v Sunderland at 77% (fair odds 1.30). Under 3.5 in 6 of 7 Sunderland games this season. A 77% pick still fails about 2 times in 10.
- How accurate are your Premier League Under 3.5 predictions?
- Our Premier League Under 3.5 picks: 68% correct from 25 graded matches (back-test 66% from 1,463). Every ProbaPredict pick is graded in public after full time, including the ones that lose.