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Manchester City FC crest Manchester City FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC Brighton & Hove Albion FC crest prediction

Premier League · Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Manchester City FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC prediction (Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK): Manchester City FC 55% · Draw 23% · Brighton & Hove Albion FC 22%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 2.00–1.21. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 59%, No 41%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Man City vs Brighton preview

Man City (1st, 21 pts) host Brighton (3rd, 16 pts) in the Premier League. Man City have taken 9 points from their last 5 games (LWWLW) and Brighton 13 points from 5 (WWWWD). Brighton: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.

Our model makes Man City clear favourites at 55%, with Brighton at 22%. Expected goals are 2.00 for Man City and 1.21 for Brighton, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

Goals are the standout: Over 2.5 is 62%, against a Premier League average of 52%. In their last 5 meetings, Man City won 1, Brighton won 2 and 2 ended level; 4 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 62%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Manchester City FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC?

Manchester City FC are clear favourites at 55%, with Brighton & Hove Albion FC at 22%. Recent form: Manchester City FC LWWLWW, Brighton & Hove Albion FC WWWWDL (latest first).

Man City won all 4 home games this season.

Manchester City FC55%
Draw23%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC22%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 62% and Under 2.5 is 38%.

Over 2.5 in 6 of 8 Man City games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals84%16%1.19
2.5 goals62%38%1.61
3.5 goals40%60%2.50

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance: Manchester City FC score in about 86% of simulated outcomes and Brighton & Hove Albion FC in about 71%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of 4 Man City home games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes59%1.69
No41%2.46

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Manchester City FC win55%1.83
Draw23%4.34
Brighton & Hove Albion FC win22%4.51
Over 2.562%1.61
Under 2.538%2.65

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.2 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Manchester City FC goals (rows) × Brighton & Hove Albion FC goals (columns)
Manchester \ Brighton012345
05%4%3%1%0%0%
17%11%6%2%1%0%
28%10%6%2%1%0%
35%7%4%2%0%0%
43%3%2%1%0%0%
51%1%1%0%0%0%
Other2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-111%
2-110%
2-08%
1-07%
3-17%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Man City and Brighton played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Man City, last 5
  1. L 1–2 at Aston Villa
  2. W 5–1 v PAE AEK
  3. W 3–2 v Ipswich Town
  4. L 2–4 v PSG
  5. W 3–0 at Liverpool
Man City, last 5 at home
  1. W 5–1 v PAE AEK
  2. W 3–2 v Ipswich Town
  3. L 2–4 v PSG
  4. W 5–3 v Sunderland
  5. W 1–0 v Coventry City
Brighton, last 5
  1. W 5–0 v Crystal Palace
  2. W 2–0 at Sunderland
  3. W 3–0 v Arsenal
  4. W 5–0 at Coventry City
  5. D 1–1 v Leeds
Brighton, last 5 away
  1. W 2–0 at Sunderland
  2. W 5–0 at Coventry City
  3. L 3–4 at Chelsea
  4. L 0–1 at Leeds
  5. L 1–3 at Newcastle

Current streaks

Premier League games only, runs of three or more. Man City and Brighton.

How Man City and Brighton compare this season

StatMan City (home, 4)Brighton (away, 3)Premier League average
Over 1.575% (3/4)100% (3/3)76%
Over 2.575% (3/4)67% (2/3)52%
Over 3.550% (2/4)67% (2/3)33%
BTTS75% (3/4)33% (1/3)52%
Win %100% (4/4)67% (2/3)40% home · 32% away
Goals for per game2.753.331.42
Goals against per game1.501.331.42

Premier League average from 75 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Premier League table

TeamPosPtsP
Man City1217
Brighton3167

Full Premier League table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Man City 1 win, 2 draws, Brighton 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5; both teams scored in 4 of 5.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Wed, 7 Jan 2026Premier LeagueMan City v Brighton1–1
Sun, 31 Aug 2025Premier LeagueBrighton v Man City2–1
Sat, 15 Mar 2025Premier LeagueMan City v Brighton2–2
Sat, 9 Nov 2024Premier LeagueBrighton v Man City2–1
Thu, 25 Apr 2024Premier LeagueBrighton v Man City0–4

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Man City v Brighton?
Our model makes Man City the more likely winner at 55%: Man City 55%, draw 23%, Brighton 22%. Man City won all 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Man City v Brighton?
Over 2.5 goals is 62% and under 2.5 is 38%, with expected goals of 3.2. Over 2.5 in 6 of 8 Man City games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Man City and Brighton played recently?
Latest first: Man City LWWLW, Brighton WWWWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Premier League predictions
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
16:30 · Premier LgSunderland AFC crestSunderlandLeeds United FC crestLeedsU3.574%34%28%37%47%74%26%56%
Sat, 31 Oct 2026
12:30 · Premier LgChelsea FC crestChelseaManchester United FC crestMan UnitedO1.584%46%25%29%62%84%40%60%
15:00 · Premier LgCoventry City FC crestCoventry CitySunderland AFC crestSunderlandU3.577%45%28%28%44%71%23%55%
15:00 · Premier LgBrentford FC crestBrentfordNottingham Forest FC crestNottinghamO1.578%48%26%26%54%78%31%57%
15:00 · Premier LgAFC Bournemouth crestBournemouthLeeds United FC crestLeedsO1.580%47%26%27%56%80%33%58%
15:00 · Premier LgHull City AFC crestHull CityIpswich Town FC crestIpswich TownO1.577%36%26%37%53%77%30%57%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
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Sat, 31 Oct 2026
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