AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United FC prediction

Premier League · Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United FC prediction (Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK): AFC Bournemouth 47% · Draw 26% · Leeds United FC 27%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.68–1.24. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 58%, No 42%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).

Published Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Bournemouth vs Leeds preview

Bournemouth (15th, 6 pts) host Leeds (7th, 10 pts) in the Premier League. Bournemouth have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (WLLDD) and Leeds 6 points from 5 (DLDWD). Leeds have not won in their last 3 league games.

Our model favours Bournemouth at 47% to Leeds's 27%. Expected goals are 1.68 for Bournemouth and 1.24 for Leeds, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

The goal markets sit close to the Premier League norm: Over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 58%. In their last 4 meetings, Bournemouth won 1, Leeds won 1 and 2 ended level; all had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United FC?

AFC Bournemouth are favoured at 47%, but the draw and a Leeds United FC win together still account for 53%. Recent form: AFC Bournemouth WLLDDD, Leeds United FC DLDWDD (latest first).

Leeds have not won in their last 3 league games.

AFC Bournemouth

47%

Draw

26%

Leeds United FC

27%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 56% and Under 2.5 is 44%.

Over 2.5 in 4 of the last 4 meetings.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	80%	20%	1.25
2.5 goals	56%	44%	1.79
3.5 goals	33%	67%	2.99

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance: AFC Bournemouth score in about 81% of simulated outcomes and Leeds United FC in about 71%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 5 of 7 Bournemouth games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	58%	1.72
No	42%	2.39

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
AFC Bournemouth win	47%	2.14
Draw	26%	3.89
Leeds United FC win	27%	3.64
Over 2.5	56%	1.79
Under 2.5	44%	2.27

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.9 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: AFC Bournemouth goals (rows) × Leeds United FC goals (columns)
AFC \ Leeds	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%	0%
1	8%	12%	7%	3%	1%	0%
2	8%	9%	6%	2%	1%	0%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	2%	2%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

2-1

1-0

2-0

1-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Bournemouth and Leeds played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Bournemouth, last 5

Bournemouth, last 5 at home

Leeds, last 5

Leeds, last 5 away

Current streaks

Leeds have not won in their last 3 league games.

Premier League games only, runs of three or more. Bournemouth and Leeds.

How Bournemouth and Leeds compare this season

Stat	Bournemouth (home, 4)	Leeds (away, 3)	Premier League average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	67% (2/3)	76%
Over 2.5	25% (1/4)	33% (1/3)	52%
Over 3.5	25% (1/4)	0% (0/3)	33%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	67% (2/3)	52%
Win %	25% (1/4)	33% (1/3)	40% home · 32% away
Goals for per game	1.25	1.00	1.42
Goals against per game	1.00	1.00	1.42

Premier League average from 75 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Premier League table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Bournemouth	15	6	7
Leeds	7	10	7

Full Premier League table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Bournemouth 1 win, 2 draws, Leeds 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 4; both teams scored in 4 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Wed, 22 Apr 2026	Premier League	Bournemouth v Leeds	2–2
Sat, 27 Sept 2025	Premier League	Leeds v Bournemouth	2–2
Sun, 30 Apr 2023	Premier League	Bournemouth v Leeds	4–1
Sat, 5 Nov 2022	Premier League	Leeds v Bournemouth	4–3

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Bournemouth v Leeds?: Our model makes Bournemouth the more likely winner at 47%: Bournemouth 47%, draw 26%, Leeds 27%. Leeds have not won in their last 3 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bournemouth v Leeds?: Over 2.5 goals is 56% and under 2.5 is 44%, with expected goals of 2.9. Over 2.5 in 4 of the last 4 meetings.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Bournemouth and Leeds played recently?: Latest first: Bournemouth WLLDD, Leeds DLDWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Sun, 25 Oct 2026
16:30 · Premier LgPremier LeagueSunderlandvLeeds	U3.574%	34%	28%	37%	74%	47%	26%	56%	47%	74%	26%	56%
Sat, 31 Oct 2026
12:30 · Premier LgPremier LeagueChelseavMan United	O1.584%	46%	25%	29%	84%	62%	40%	60%	62%	84%	40%	60%
15:00 · Premier LgPremier LeagueCoventry CityvSunderland	U3.577%	45%	28%	28%	71%	44%	23%	55%	44%	71%	23%	55%
15:00 · Premier LgPremier LeagueBrentfordvNottingham	O1.578%	48%	26%	26%	78%	54%	31%	57%	54%	78%	31%	57%
15:00 · Premier LgPremier LeagueMan CityvBrighton	O1.584%	55%	23%	22%	84%	62%	40%	59%	62%	84%	40%	59%
15:00 · Premier LgPremier LeagueHull CityvIpswich Town	O1.577%	36%	26%	37%	77%	53%	30%	57%	53%	77%	30%	57%

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