England Premier League draw predictions & stats
Our Premier League predictions cover every upcoming match with home, draw, away and Over/Under goals probabilities.
A draw means both teams have the same number of goals after 90 minutes plus stoppage time: 0-0, 1-1 and 2-2 all count, and extra time and penalties don't. What is 1X2 in football betting?
29% is the highest Draw probability in the Premier League this week: Liverpool FC vs Arsenal FC, from ProbaPredict's statistical model.
Out of 75 England Premier League matches played this season, 21 finished as draws (28%). Last season: 104 of 380 (27%), averaging 2.75 goals per game.
10 matches ranked by draw probability; the highest is Liverpool FC vs Arsenal FC at 29%.
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Fair odds | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||||
16:30 · Premier LgPremier League  | 28% | 3.51 | U3.574% | 34% | 28% | 37% | 47% | 74% | 26% | 56% |
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||||||
15:00 · Premier LgPremier League | 28% | 3.61 | U3.577% | 45% | 28% | 28% | 44% | 71% | 23% | 55% |
20:00 · Premier LgPremier League  | 27% | 3.67 | O1.576% | 45% | 27% | 28% | 50% | 76% | 28% | 57% |
17:30 · Premier LgPremier League  | 27% | 3.72 | O1.578% | 40% | 27% | 33% | 53% | 78% | 31% | 58% |
15:00 · Premier LgPremier League  | 26% | 3.82 | O1.577% | 36% | 26% | 37% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 57% |
15:00 · Premier LgPremier League  | 26% | 3.84 | O1.578% | 48% | 26% | 26% | 54% | 78% | 31% | 57% |
15:00 · Premier LgPremier League Bournemouth | 26% | 3.89 | O1.580% | 47% | 26% | 27% | 56% | 80% | 33% | 58% |
12:30 · Premier LgPremier League  | 25% | 4.07 | O1.584% | 46% | 25% | 29% | 62% | 84% | 40% | 60% |
15:00 · Premier LgPremier League  | 23% | 4.34 | O1.584% | 55% | 23% | 22% | 62% | 84% | 40% | 59% |
| Sun, 1 Nov 2026 | ||||||||||
16:30 · Premier LgPremier League  | 29% | 3.50 | U3.575% | 31% | 29% | 40% | 46% | 73% | 25% | 56% |
Best Premier League teams for Draw
All games, this season. Rate = share of games with draws. Download CSV
| Team | Hits | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | 57% | 37% | 75% | 33% | at Sunderland 28% |
| 7 | 4 | 57% | 29% | 33% | 75% | at Chelsea 25% |
| 7 | 4 | 57% | 29% | 25% | 100% | v Nottingham 26% |
 | 8 | 4 | 50% | 26% | 25% | 75% | – |
| Bournemouth | 7 | 3 | 43% | 47% | 50% | 33% | v Leeds 26% |
| 7 | 3 | 43% | – | 67% | 25% | v Ipswich Town 26% |
| 7 | 3 | 43% | 24% | 67% | 25% | v Arsenal 29% |
| 8 | 3 | 38% | 29% | 25% | 50% | v Crystal Palace 27% |
| 8 | 3 | 38% | 29% | 25% | 50% | at Brentford 26% |
 | 7 | 2 | 29% | 18% | 50% | 0% | – |
| Premier League average 28% | |||||||
| 8 | 2 | 25% | 18% | 25% | 25% | at Aston Villa 27% |
| 8 | 2 | 25% | 21% | 25% | 25% | v Fulham 27% |
| 7 | 1 | 14% | 32% | 0% | 25% | v Leeds 28% |
| 7 | 1 | 14% | 29% | 25% | 0% | at Man City 23% |
| 7 | 1 | 14% | 32% | 0% | 25% | at Tottenham 27% |
| 8 | 1 | 13% | – | 25% | 0% | at Hull City 26% |
| 8 | 1 | 13% | 26% | 25% | 0% | v Man United 25% |
| 8 | 0 | 0% | – | 0% | 0% | v Sunderland 28% |
| 8 | 0 | 0% | 18% | 0% | 0% | at Liverpool 29% |
| 8 | 0 | 0% | 24% | 0% | 0% | v Brighton 23% |
Who are the best teams in the Premier League for Draw?
This season, the Premier League teams with the highest share of games as draws are Leeds (4 of 7, 57%), Man United (4 of 7, 57%), Brentford (4 of 7 and 57%). The Premier League average is 28%. Small samples swing quickly, so read the counts as well as the percentages.
Premier League Draw facts
- In 2025-26, 104 of 380 England Premier League matches finished as draws (27%), with 2.75 goals per game.
- This season (2026-27), 21 of 75 Premier League matches have finished as draws (28%).
- Across 2022-23 to 2026-27, 387 of 1595 Premier League matches finished as draws (24%).
- Bournemouth drew 18 of 38 games in 2025-26 (47%), the highest rate in the Premier League.
- Newcastle drew 7 of 38 games in 2025-26 (18%), the lowest rate in the Premier League.
- Man United games averaged 3.13 goals in 2025-26, the most of any Premier League side.
How do our draw predictions work?
A draw prediction is about one result: both teams level after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. 0-0, 1-1 and 2-2 all count; extra time and penalties do not.
Our model rates every team's attack and defence from recent results, adds home advantage and gives every scoreline from 0-0 to 10-10 a probability. The draw chance is the sum of the level scores. The small Dixon-Coles correction matters most here, because plain Poisson models tend to underrate 0-0 and 1-1.
Draws are the hardest result to call. About a quarter of matches end level, and even the likeliest draws of the week rarely go above 30-35%. A 33% draw has fair odds of 3.00 and still fails two times in three. The list is ranked from the highest draw chance down; evenly matched, low-scoring games usually sit at the top.
New to this? Read: What is 1X2 in football betting? · What is double chance? · What is draw no bet?
These football predictions rank matches by probability while keeping the uncertainty visible.
More football predictions
Frequently asked questions
- How often does Draw land in the Premier League?
- Out of 75 England Premier League matches played this season, 21 finished as draws (28%). Last season: 104 of 380 (27%), averaging 2.75 goals per game.
- Which Premier League team has the most Draw games?
- Leeds drew 4 of 7 games this season (57%), the highest rate in the Premier League.
- What is the most likely Draw pick this matchday?
- Liverpool v Arsenal at 29% (fair odds 3.50). Liverpool drew 2 of 3 home games this season. A 29% pick still fails about 7 times in 10.
- How accurate are your Premier League Draw predictions?
- We publish a hit rate here once at least 20 picks have been graded. Every ProbaPredict pick is graded in public after full time, including the ones that lose.