England Premier League over 4.5 goals predictions & stats
Our Premier League predictions cover every upcoming match with home, draw, away and Over/Under goals probabilities.
Over 4.5 goals means the match has 5 or more goals in normal time, whoever scores them: 3-2, 4-1 and 5-0 all count. What does Over 2.5 goals mean?
21% is the highest Over 4.5 goals probability in the Premier League this week: Chelsea FC vs Manchester United FC, from ProbaPredict's statistical model.
Out of 75 England Premier League matches played this season, 14 finished with over 4.5 goals (19%). Last season: 49 of 380 (13%), averaging 2.75 goals per game.
10 matches ranked by over 4.5 goals probability; the highest is Chelsea FC vs Manchester United FC at 21%.
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Fair odds | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||||
16:30 · Premier LgPremier League  | 11% | 8.73 | U3.574% | 34% | 28% | 37% | 47% | 74% | 26% | 56% |
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||||||
12:30 · Premier LgPremier League  | 21% | 4.82 | O1.584% | 46% | 25% | 29% | 62% | 84% | 40% | 60% |
15:00 · Premier LgPremier League  | 21% | 4.83 | O1.584% | 55% | 23% | 22% | 62% | 84% | 40% | 59% |
15:00 · Premier LgPremier League Bournemouth | 16% | 6.11 | O1.580% | 47% | 26% | 27% | 56% | 80% | 33% | 58% |
17:30 · Premier LgPremier League  | 15% | 6.70 | O1.578% | 40% | 27% | 33% | 53% | 78% | 31% | 58% |
15:00 · Premier LgPremier League  | 15% | 6.74 | O1.578% | 48% | 26% | 26% | 54% | 78% | 31% | 57% |
15:00 · Premier LgPremier League  | 14% | 6.93 | O1.577% | 36% | 26% | 37% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 57% |
20:00 · Premier LgPremier League  | 13% | 7.67 | O1.576% | 45% | 27% | 28% | 50% | 76% | 28% | 57% |
15:00 · Premier LgPremier League | 10% | 10.17 | U3.577% | 45% | 28% | 28% | 44% | 71% | 23% | 55% |
| Sun, 1 Nov 2026 | ||||||||||
16:30 · Premier LgPremier League  | 11% | 9.24 | U3.575% | 31% | 29% | 40% | 46% | 73% | 25% | 56% |
Best Premier League teams for Over 4.5
All games, this season. Rate = share of games with over 4.5 goals. Download CSV
| Team | Hits | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | 57% | 8% | 67% | 50% | at Tottenham 15% |
| 7 | 3 | 43% | 5% | 25% | 67% | at Man City 21% |
| 8 | 3 | 38% | – | 0% | 75% | at Hull City 14% |
| 8 | 3 | 38% | 8% | 50% | 25% | v Man United 21% |
| 8 | 3 | 38% | 11% | 50% | 25% | v Brighton 21% |
 | 7 | 2 | 29% | 16% | 0% | 67% | – |
| 8 | 2 | 25% | – | 50% | 0% | v Sunderland 10% |
| 8 | 2 | 25% | 8% | 50% | 0% | at Aston Villa 13% |
| Premier League average 19% | |||||||
| 7 | 1 | 14% | 13% | 25% | 0% | at Sunderland 11% |
| 7 | 1 | 14% | 21% | 33% | 0% | at Chelsea 21% |
| Bournemouth | 7 | 1 | 14% | 21% | 0% | 33% | v Leeds 16% |
| 7 | 1 | 14% | 8% | 0% | 25% | v Leeds 11% |
| 8 | 1 | 13% | 8% | 25% | 0% | v Crystal Palace 15% |
| 8 | 1 | 13% | 16% | 0% | 25% | v Fulham 13% |
 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 13% | 0% | 0% | – |
| 8 | 0 | 0% | 16% | 0% | 0% | at Liverpool 11% |
| 8 | 0 | 0% | 8% | 0% | 0% | at Brentford 15% |
| 7 | 0 | 0% | – | 0% | 0% | v Ipswich Town 14% |
| 7 | 0 | 0% | 24% | 0% | 0% | v Arsenal 11% |
| 7 | 0 | 0% | 13% | 0% | 0% | v Nottingham 15% |
Who are the best teams in the Premier League for Over 4.5 goals?
This season, the Premier League teams with the highest share of games with over 4.5 goals are Crystal Palace (4 of 7, 57%), Brighton (3 of 7, 43%), Ipswich Town (3 of 8 and 38%). The Premier League average is 19%. Small samples swing quickly, so read the counts as well as the percentages.
Premier League Over 4.5 goals facts
- In 2025-26, 49 of 380 England Premier League matches finished with over 4.5 goals (13%), with 2.75 goals per game.
- This season (2026-27), 14 of 75 Premier League matches have finished with over 4.5 goals (19%).
- Across 2022-23 to 2026-27, 272 of 1595 Premier League matches finished with over 4.5 goals (17%).
- Over 4.5 in 9 of 38 Liverpool games in 2025-26 (24%), the highest rate in the Premier League.
- Over 4.5 in 2 of 38 Brighton games in 2025-26 (5%), the lowest rate in the Premier League.
- Man United games averaged 3.13 goals in 2025-26, the most of any Premier League side.
Our Premier League Over 4.5 picks: back-test 0% correct from 1 matches (out-of-sample, past seasons). See the accuracy record.
What does Over 4.5 goals mean in football predictions?
Over 4.5 goals looks only at the total number of goals scored by both teams in normal time. Over 4.5 needs five or more goals. Who scores them does not matter, and extra time does not count.
Our model predicts each team's expected goals from its attacking strength and the opponent's defensive record, adjusted for home advantage and recent form. It then spreads those expectations across every scoreline from 0-0 to 10-10, applies a small correction for low-scoring draws, and adds up every scoreline that lands over the 4.5 line.
To convert the percentage into fair decimal odds, divide 100 by it: 60% becomes 1.67 and 45% becomes 2.22. Fair odds carry no bookmaker margin. A 70% over still misses roughly three times in ten, which is exactly what a calibrated model should do. The list below is ranked from the highest probability to the lowest.
New to this? Read: What does Over 2.5 goals mean? · Which league has the most goals?
These football predictions rank matches by probability while keeping the uncertainty visible.
More football predictions
Frequently asked questions
- How often does Over 4.5 land in the Premier League?
- Out of 75 England Premier League matches played this season, 14 finished with over 4.5 goals (19%). Last season: 49 of 380 (13%), averaging 2.75 goals per game.
- Which Premier League team has the most Over 4.5 games?
- Over 4.5 in 4 of 7 Crystal Palace games this season (57%), the highest rate in the Premier League.
- What is the most likely Over 4.5 pick this matchday?
- Chelsea v Man United at 21% (fair odds 4.82). Model expects 3.2 total goals. A 21% pick still fails about 8 times in 10.
- How accurate are your Premier League Over 4.5 predictions?
- Our Premier League Over 4.5 picks: back-test 0% correct from 1 matches (out-of-sample, past seasons). Every ProbaPredict pick is graded in public after full time, including the ones that lose.