US Sassuolo Calcio vs ACF Fiorentina prediction

Serie A · Mon, 2 Nov 2026, 17:30 UK

US Sassuolo Calcio vs ACF Fiorentina prediction (Mon, 2 Nov 2026, 17:30 UK): US Sassuolo Calcio 42% · Draw 25% · ACF Fiorentina 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.58–1.36. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 54%, No 46%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).

Published Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK · Updated Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina preview

Sassuolo (14th, 8 pts) host Fiorentina (18th, 4 pts) in the Serie A. Sassuolo have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (LLDLW) and Fiorentina 4 points from 5 (LLLDW). Fiorentina: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 10 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Sassuolo 42%, Fiorentina 33%. Expected goals are 1.58 for Sassuolo and 1.36 for Fiorentina, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

The goal markets sit close to the Serie A norm: Over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 54%. In their last 5 meetings, Sassuolo won 2, Fiorentina won 2 and 1 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 56%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win US Sassuolo Calcio vs ACF Fiorentina?

This is close to a coin flip: US Sassuolo Calcio 42%, ACF Fiorentina 33%, with the draw at 25%. Recent form: US Sassuolo Calcio LLDLWD, ACF Fiorentina LLLDWL (latest first).

Fiorentina lost 3 of 4 away games this season.

US Sassuolo Calcio

42%

Draw

25%

ACF Fiorentina

33%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 56% and Under 2.5 is 44%.

Over 2.5 in all 4 Fiorentina away games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	80%	20%	1.26
2.5 goals	56%	44%	1.78
3.5 goals	34%	66%	2.95

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance: US Sassuolo Calcio score in about 79% of simulated outcomes and ACF Fiorentina in about 75%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 3 Sassuolo home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	54%	1.84
No	46%	2.20

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
US Sassuolo Calcio win	42%	2.38
Draw	25%	3.96
ACF Fiorentina win	33%	3.06
Over 2.5	56%	1.78
Under 2.5	44%	2.29

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.9 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: US Sassuolo Calcio goals (rows) × ACF Fiorentina goals (columns)
US \ ACF	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	0%
1	8%	12%	8%	4%	1%	0%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	0%
3	3%	5%	3%	1%	1%	0%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

2-1

1-0

1-2

0-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Sassuolo and Fiorentina played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Sassuolo, last 5

Sassuolo, last 5 at home

Fiorentina, last 5

Fiorentina, last 5 away

Current streaks

Fiorentina: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 10 league games.
Sassuolo: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.
Fiorentina: both teams scored in each of their last 6 league games.
Fiorentina have not won in their last 4 league games.
Sassuolo have not won in their last 4 league games.
Fiorentina have lost each of their last 3 league games.
Fiorentina: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Sassuolo and Fiorentina.

How Sassuolo and Fiorentina compare this season

Stat	Sassuolo (home, 3)	Fiorentina (away, 4)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	100% (4/4)	85%
Over 2.5	67% (2/3)	100% (4/4)	59%
Over 3.5	33% (1/3)	50% (2/4)	30%
BTTS	100% (3/3)	75% (3/4)	56%
Win %	67% (2/3)	25% (1/4)	48% home · 35% away
Goals for per game	2.00	1.50	1.51
Goals against per game	1.33	2.50	1.51

Serie A average from 80 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Sassuolo	14	8	8
Fiorentina	18	4	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Sassuolo 2 wins, 1 draw, Fiorentina 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 26 Apr 2026	Serie A	Fiorentina v Sassuolo	0–0
Sat, 6 Dec 2025	Serie A	Sassuolo v Fiorentina	3–1
Sun, 28 Apr 2024	Serie A	Fiorentina v Sassuolo	5–1
Sat, 6 Jan 2024	Serie A	Sassuolo v Fiorentina	1–0
Fri, 2 Jun 2023	Serie A	Sassuolo v Fiorentina	1–3

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Sassuolo v Fiorentina?: Our model makes Sassuolo the more likely winner at 42%: Sassuolo 42%, draw 25%, Fiorentina 33%. Fiorentina lost 3 of 4 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sassuolo v Fiorentina?: Over 2.5 goals is 56% and under 2.5 is 44%, with expected goals of 2.9. Over 2.5 in all 4 Fiorentina away games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Sassuolo and Fiorentina played recently?: Latest first: Sassuolo LLDLW, Fiorentina LLLDW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Tue, 27 Oct 2026
17:30 · Serie ASerie ASassuolovLazio	O1.575%	32%	27%	42%	75%	50%	28%	53%	50%	75%	28%	53%
19:45 · Serie ASerie ARomavCagliari	O1.575%	68%	21%	12%	75%	50%	28%	48%	50%	75%	28%	48%
19:45 · Serie ASerie ATorinovComo 1907	O1.574%	26%	26%	47%	74%	48%	26%	52%	48%	74%	26%	52%
Wed, 28 Oct 2026
17:30 · Serie ASerie AMilanvBologna	U3.574%	52%	26%	22%	73%	47%	26%	51%	47%	73%	26%	51%
17:30 · Serie ASerie AVeneziavInter	O1.584%	18%	21%	61%	84%	64%	42%	55%	64%	84%	42%	55%
17:30 · Serie ASerie AParmavUdinese	U3.581%	37%	30%	33%	66%	39%	19%	49%	39%	66%	19%	49%

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