AS Roma vs Cagliari Calcio prediction

Serie A · Tue, 27 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK

AS Roma vs Cagliari Calcio prediction (Tue, 27 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): AS Roma 67% · Draw 21% · Cagliari Calcio 12%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.94–0.68. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 48%, No 52%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 2-0 (14%), 1-1 (10%).

Published Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Roma vs Cagliari preview

Roma (3rd, 17 pts) host Cagliari (7th, 13 pts) in the Serie A. Roma have taken 8 points from their last 5 games (WWLDD) and Cagliari 10 points from 5 (LDWWW). Roma are unbeaten in their last 14 league games.

Our model makes Roma clear favourites at 67%, with Cagliari at 12%. Expected goals are 1.94 for Roma and 0.68 for Cagliari, and the most likely score is 1-0 (14%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 51%, while 61% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Roma won 3, Cagliari won 1 and 1 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Roma to win is the model's clearest call at 67%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.

Who will win AS Roma vs Cagliari Calcio?

AS Roma are clear favourites at 67%, with Cagliari Calcio at 12%. Recent form: AS Roma WWLDDW, Cagliari Calcio LDWWWL (latest first).

Roma won 3 of 4 home games this season.

AS Roma

67%

Draw

21%

Cagliari Calcio

12%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 49% and Under 2.5 is 51%.

Under 2.5 in 5 of 7 Cagliari games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	74%	26%	1.35
2.5 goals	49%	51%	2.06
3.5 goals	27%	73%	3.73

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 48% chance: AS Roma score in about 86% of simulated outcomes and Cagliari Calcio in about 50%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	48%	2.09
No	52%	1.92

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
AS Roma win	67%	1.50
Draw	21%	4.70
Cagliari Calcio win	12%	8.39
Over 2.5	49%	2.06
Under 2.5	51%	1.95

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: AS Roma goals (rows) × Cagliari Calcio goals (columns)
AS \ Cagliari	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8%	5%	2%	0%	0%	0%
1	14%	10%	3%	1%	0%	0%
2	14%	9%	3%	1%	0%	0%
3	9%	6%	2%	0%	0%	0%
4	4%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-0

14%

2-0

14%

1-1

10%

2-1

3-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Roma and Cagliari played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Roma, last 5

Roma, last 5 at home

Cagliari, last 5

Cagliari, last 5 away

Current streaks

Roma are unbeaten in their last 14 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Roma and Cagliari.

How Roma and Cagliari compare this season

Stat	Roma (home, 4)	Cagliari (away, 4)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	100% (4/4)	50% (2/4)	85%
Over 2.5	75% (3/4)	50% (2/4)	61%
Over 3.5	50% (2/4)	25% (1/4)	31%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	25% (1/4)	58%
Win %	75% (3/4)	75% (3/4)	48% home · 35% away
Goals for per game	2.50	1.00	1.49
Goals against per game	0.75	1.25	1.49

Serie A average from 71 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Roma	3	17	7
Cagliari	7	13	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Roma 3 wins, 1 draw, Cagliari 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 5; both teams scored in 0 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Mon, 9 Feb 2026	Serie A	Roma v Cagliari	2–0
Sun, 7 Dec 2025	Serie A	Cagliari v Roma	1–0
Sun, 16 Mar 2025	Serie A	Roma v Cagliari	1–0
Sun, 18 Aug 2024	Serie A	Cagliari v Roma	0–0
Mon, 5 Feb 2024	Serie A	Roma v Cagliari	4–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Roma v Cagliari?: Our model makes Roma the more likely winner at 67%: Roma 67%, draw 21%, Cagliari 12%. Roma won 3 of 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Roma v Cagliari?: Over 2.5 goals is 49% and under 2.5 is 51%, with expected goals of 2.6. Under 2.5 in 5 of 7 Cagliari games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-0 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Roma and Cagliari played recently?: Latest first: Roma WWLDD, Cagliari LDWWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie ASerie AIntervFiorentina	O1.586%	72%	17%	11%	86%	67%	46%	53%	67%	86%	46%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AAtalantavFrosinone	O1.579%	56%	23%	20%	79%	56%	34%	53%	56%	79%	34%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AGenoavVenezia	U3.575%	39%	28%	33%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
17:00 · Serie ASerie ALeccevJuventus	U3.582%	18%	28%	54%	65%	37%	18%	47%	37%	65%	18%	47%
19:45 · Serie ASerie AUdinesevMilan	O1.575%	26%	26%	48%	75%	49%	27%	52%	49%	75%	27%	52%
Tue, 27 Oct 2026
17:30 · Serie ASerie ASassuolovLazio	O1.576%	32%	27%	41%	76%	51%	29%	53%	51%	76%	29%	53%