Newcastle United FC vs Everton FC prediction

Premier League · Mon, 2 Nov 2026, 20:00 UK

Newcastle United FC vs Everton FC prediction (Mon, 2 Nov 2026, 20:00 UK): Newcastle United FC 49% · Draw 26% · Everton FC 25%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.64–1.11. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 57%, No 43%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).

Published Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK · Updated Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Newcastle vs Everton preview

Newcastle (14th, 8 pts) host Everton (9th, 10 pts) in the Premier League. Newcastle have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (LLWLD) and Everton 5 points from 5 (LLDWD). Everton: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Our model favours Newcastle at 49% to Everton's 25%. Expected goals are 1.64 for Newcastle and 1.11 for Everton, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The goal markets sit close to the Premier League norm: Over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 57%. In their last 5 meetings, Newcastle won 1, Everton won 2 and 2 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 57%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Newcastle United FC vs Everton FC?

Newcastle United FC are favoured at 49%, but the draw and a Everton FC win together still account for 51%. Recent form: Newcastle United FC LLWLDW, Everton FC LLDWDD (latest first).

Everton have not won in their last 3 league games.

Newcastle United FC

49%

Draw

26%

Everton FC

25%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 52% and Under 2.5 is 48%.

Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Newcastle home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	77%	23%	1.30
2.5 goals	52%	48%	1.93
3.5 goals	30%	70%	3.38

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance: Newcastle United FC score in about 81% of simulated outcomes and Everton FC in about 67%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of 4 Newcastle home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	57%	1.76
No	43%	2.31

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Newcastle United FC win	49%	2.04
Draw	26%	3.80
Everton FC win	25%	4.03
Over 2.5	52%	1.93
Under 2.5	48%	2.07

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Newcastle United FC goals (rows) × Everton FC goals (columns)
Newcastle \ Everton	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7%	6%	4%	1%	0%	0%
1	10%	13%	6%	2%	1%	0%
2	9%	10%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

1-0

10%

2-1

10%

2-0

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Newcastle and Everton played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Newcastle, last 5

Newcastle, last 5 at home

Everton, last 5

Everton, last 5 away

Current streaks

Everton: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Everton have not won in their last 3 league games.

Premier League games only, runs of three or more. Newcastle and Everton.

How Newcastle and Everton compare this season

Stat	Newcastle (home, 4)	Everton (away, 4)	Premier League average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	75% (3/4)	76%
Over 2.5	75% (3/4)	25% (1/4)	50%
Over 3.5	50% (2/4)	25% (1/4)	31%
BTTS	75% (3/4)	50% (2/4)	50%
Win %	25% (1/4)	0% (0/4)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	1.50	0.75	1.39
Goals against per game	1.50	1.25	1.39

Premier League average from 80 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Premier League table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Newcastle	14	8	7
Everton	9	10	8

Full Premier League table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Newcastle 1 win, 2 draws, Everton 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 28 Feb 2026	Premier League	Newcastle v Everton	2–3
Sat, 29 Nov 2025	Premier League	Everton v Newcastle	1–4
Sun, 25 May 2025	Premier League	Newcastle v Everton	0–1
Sat, 5 Oct 2024	Premier League	Everton v Newcastle	0–0
Tue, 2 Apr 2024	Premier League	Newcastle v Everton	1–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Newcastle v Everton?: Our model makes Newcastle the more likely winner at 49%: Newcastle 49%, draw 26%, Everton 25%. Everton have not won in their last 3 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Newcastle v Everton?: Over 2.5 goals is 52% and under 2.5 is 48%, with expected goals of 2.7. Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Newcastle home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Newcastle and Everton played recently?: Latest first: Newcastle LLWLD, Everton LLDWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Sat, 31 Oct 2026
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