Atalanta BC vs Parma Calcio 1913 prediction

Serie A · Mon, 2 Nov 2026, 19:45 UK

Atalanta BC vs Parma Calcio 1913 prediction (Mon, 2 Nov 2026, 19:45 UK): Atalanta BC 62% · Draw 23% · Parma Calcio 1913 15%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.83–0.78. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 49%, No 51%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%).

Published Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK · Updated Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Atalanta vs Parma preview

Atalanta (11th, 9 pts) host Parma (19th, 4 pts) in the Serie A. Atalanta have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (DLWLL) and Parma 3 points from 5 (LLLWL). Parma: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.

Our model makes Atalanta clear favourites at 62%, with Parma at 15%. Expected goals are 1.83 for Atalanta and 0.78 for Parma, and the most likely score is 1-0 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 52%, while 59% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Atalanta won 2, Parma won 1 and 1 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Atalanta to win is the model's clearest call at 62%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Atalanta BC vs Parma Calcio 1913?

Atalanta BC are clear favourites at 62%, with Parma Calcio 1913 at 15%. Recent form: Atalanta BC DLWLLL, Parma Calcio 1913 LLLWLD (latest first).

Parma lost all 4 away games this season.

Atalanta BC

62%

Draw

23%

Parma Calcio 1913

15%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 48% and Under 2.5 is 52%.

Under 2.5 in 14 of 19 Parma away games last season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	74%	26%	1.35
2.5 goals	48%	52%	2.07
3.5 goals	27%	73%	3.76

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance: Atalanta BC score in about 84% of simulated outcomes and Parma Calcio 1913 in about 54%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	49%	2.04
No	51%	1.96

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Atalanta BC win	62%	1.61
Draw	23%	4.36
Parma Calcio 1913 win	15%	6.70
Over 2.5	48%	2.07
Under 2.5	52%	1.94

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Atalanta BC goals (rows) × Parma Calcio 1913 goals (columns)
Atalanta \ Parma	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8%	5%	2%	1%	0%	0%
1	13%	11%	4%	1%	0%	0%
2	12%	10%	4%	1%	0%	0%
3	8%	6%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	3%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-0

13%

2-0

12%

1-1

11%

2-1

10%

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Atalanta and Parma played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Atalanta, last 5

Atalanta, last 5 at home

Parma, last 5

Parma, last 5 away

Current streaks

Parma: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.
Atalanta: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.
Parma: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
Atalanta: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Atalanta: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Parma have lost each of their last 3 league games.
Parma have not won in their last 3 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Atalanta and Parma.

How Atalanta and Parma compare this season

Stat	Atalanta (home, 5)	Parma (away, 4)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	80% (4/5)	100% (4/4)	85%
Over 2.5	80% (4/5)	75% (3/4)	59%
Over 3.5	40% (2/5)	0% (0/4)	30%
BTTS	80% (4/5)	50% (2/4)	56%
Win %	60% (3/5)	0% (0/4)	48% home · 35% away
Goals for per game	2.20	0.50	1.51
Goals against per game	1.60	2.25	1.51

Serie A average from 80 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Atalanta	11	9	7
Parma	19	4	8

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Atalanta 2 wins, 1 draw, Parma 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 25 Jan 2026	Serie A	Atalanta v Parma	4–0
Sat, 30 Aug 2025	Serie A	Parma v Atalanta	1–1
Sun, 25 May 2025	Serie A	Atalanta v Parma	2–3
Sat, 23 Nov 2024	Serie A	Parma v Atalanta	1–3

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Atalanta v Parma?: Our model makes Atalanta the more likely winner at 62%: Atalanta 62%, draw 23%, Parma 15%. Parma lost all 4 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Atalanta v Parma?: Over 2.5 goals is 48% and under 2.5 is 52%, with expected goals of 2.6. Under 2.5 in 14 of 19 Parma away games last season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-0 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Atalanta and Parma played recently?: Latest first: Atalanta DLWLL, Parma LLLWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Tue, 27 Oct 2026
17:30 · Serie ASerie ASassuolovLazio	O1.575%	32%	27%	42%	75%	50%	28%	53%	50%	75%	28%	53%
19:45 · Serie ASerie ARomavCagliari	O1.575%	68%	21%	12%	75%	50%	28%	48%	50%	75%	28%	48%
19:45 · Serie ASerie ATorinovComo 1907	O1.574%	26%	26%	47%	74%	48%	26%	52%	48%	74%	26%	52%
Wed, 28 Oct 2026
17:30 · Serie ASerie AMilanvBologna	U3.574%	52%	26%	22%	73%	47%	26%	51%	47%	73%	26%	51%
17:30 · Serie ASerie AVeneziavInter	O1.584%	18%	21%	61%	84%	64%	42%	55%	64%	84%	42%	55%
17:30 · Serie ASerie AParmavUdinese	U3.581%	37%	30%	33%	66%	39%	19%	49%	39%	66%	19%	49%

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