Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs FC Alverca prediction

Primeira Liga · Mon, 2 Nov 2026, 20:15 UK

Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs FC Alverca prediction (Mon, 2 Nov 2026, 20:15 UK): Sport Lisboa e Benfica 79% · Draw 14% · FC Alverca 7%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%. Most likely score: 2-0. Expected goals 2.69–0.70. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 49%, No 51%. Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (11%), 1-0 (9%).

Published Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK · Updated Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

SL Benfica vs Alverca preview

SL Benfica (2nd, 19 pts) host Alverca (8th, 11 pts) in the Primeira Liga. SL Benfica have taken 12 points from their last 5 games (WLWWW) and Alverca 9 points from 5 (LWWWL). SL Benfica: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 22 league games.

Our model makes SL Benfica clear favourites at 79%, with Alverca at 7%. Expected goals are 2.69 for SL Benfica and 0.70 for Alverca, and the most likely score is 2-0 (12%).

Goals are the standout: Over 2.5 is 66%, against a Primeira Liga average of 55%.

SL Benfica to win is the model's clearest call at 79%, which still fails about 2 times in 10.

Who will win Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs FC Alverca?

Sport Lisboa e Benfica are clear favourites at 79%, with FC Alverca at 7%. Recent form: Sport Lisboa e Benfica WLWWWW, FC Alverca LWWWLD (latest first).

SL Benfica won 3 of 4 home games this season.

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

79%

Draw

14%

FC Alverca

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 goals is likely at 66%.

Over 2.5 in 7 of 8 SL Benfica games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	85%	15%	1.17
2.5 goals	66%	34%	1.52
3.5 goals	44%	56%	2.28

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance: Sport Lisboa e Benfica score in about 93% of simulated outcomes and FC Alverca in about 53%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 3.4 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	49%	2.05
No	51%	1.96

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Sport Lisboa e Benfica win	79%	1.26
Draw	14%	7.24
FC Alverca win	7%	14.36
Over 2.5	66%	1.52
Under 2.5	34%	2.93

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Sport Lisboa e Benfica goals (rows) × FC Alverca goals (columns)
Sport \ FC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
1	9%	7%	2%	1%	0%	0%
2	12%	9%	3%	1%	0%	0%
3	11%	8%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	7%	5%	2%	0%	0%	0%
5	4%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	6% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

2-0

12%

3-0

11%

1-0

2-1

3-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have SL Benfica and Alverca played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

SL Benfica, last 5

SL Benfica, last 5 at home

Alverca, last 5

Alverca, last 5 away

Current streaks

SL Benfica: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 22 league games.

Primeira Liga games only, runs of three or more. SL Benfica and Alverca.

How SL Benfica and Alverca compare this season

Stat	SL Benfica (home, 4)	Alverca (away, 4)	Primeira Liga average
Over 1.5	100% (4/4)	100% (4/4)	74%
Over 2.5	75% (3/4)	75% (3/4)	55%
Over 3.5	50% (2/4)	75% (3/4)	36%
BTTS	75% (3/4)	75% (3/4)	49%
Win %	75% (3/4)	50% (2/4)	38% home · 40% away
Goals for per game	2.25	2.00	1.37
Goals against per game	1.00	1.75	1.37

Primeira Liga average from 80 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Primeira Liga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
SL Benfica	2	19	8
Alverca	8	11	9

Full Primeira Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: SL Benfica 2 wins, 0 draws, Alverca 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 2; both teams scored in 2 of 2.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 8 Feb 2026	Primeira Liga	SL Benfica v Alverca	2–1
Sun, 31 Aug 2025	Primeira Liga	Alverca v SL Benfica	1–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win SL Benfica v Alverca?: Our model makes SL Benfica the more likely winner at 79%: SL Benfica 79%, draw 14%, Alverca 7%. SL Benfica won 3 of 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in SL Benfica v Alverca?: Over 2.5 goals is 66% and under 2.5 is 34%, with expected goals of 3.4. Over 2.5 in 7 of 8 SL Benfica games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 2-0 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have SL Benfica and Alverca played recently?: Latest first: SL Benfica WLWWW, Alverca LWWWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions

Mon, 26 Oct 2026
18:45 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaSanta ClaravSL Benfica	U3.578%	18%	26%	57%	70%	43%	22%	48%	43%	70%	22%	48%
Fri, 30 Oct 2026
20:15 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaCasa PiavSporting CP	O1.583%	9%	16%	76%	83%	62%	39%	49%	62%	83%	39%	49%
Sat, 31 Oct 2026
15:30 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaMoreirensevAmadora	O1.574%	48%	26%	26%	74%	48%	26%	51%	48%	74%	26%	51%
20:30 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaPortovEstoril Praia	O1.583%	77%	15%	8%	83%	61%	39%	48%	61%	83%	39%	48%
Sun, 1 Nov 2026
15:30 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaAroucavNacional	O1.575%	51%	25%	24%	75%	50%	28%	51%	50%	75%	28%	51%
18:00 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaAcad. ViseuvRio Ave	O1.580%	68%	19%	12%	80%	58%	35%	50%	58%	80%	35%	50%

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