Casa Pia AC vs Sporting Clube de Portugal prediction

Primeira Liga · Fri, 30 Oct 2026, 20:15 UK

Casa Pia AC vs Sporting Clube de Portugal prediction (Fri, 30 Oct 2026, 20:15 UK): Casa Pia AC 8% · Draw 16% · Sporting Clube de Portugal 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%. Most likely score: 0-2. Expected goals 0.70–2.49. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 49%, No 51%. Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-3 (11%), 0-1 (10%).

Published Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP preview

Casa Pia (17th, 4 pts) host Sporting CP (3rd, 18 pts) in the Primeira Liga. Casa Pia have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (LWLDL) and Sporting CP 8 points from 5 (LWWDD). Sporting CP: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 14 league games.

Our model makes Sporting CP clear favourites at 76%, with Casa Pia at 8%. Expected goals are 0.70 for Casa Pia and 2.49 for Sporting CP, and the most likely score is 0-2 (13%).

The goal markets sit close to the Primeira Liga norm: Over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 49%. In their last 5 meetings, Sporting CP won all 5; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Sporting CP to win is the model's clearest call at 76%, which still fails about 2 times in 10.

Who will win Casa Pia AC vs Sporting Clube de Portugal?

Sporting Clube de Portugal are clear favourites at 76%, with Casa Pia AC at 8%. Recent form: Casa Pia AC LWLDLL, Sporting Clube de Portugal LWWDDW (latest first).

Casa Pia lost all 4 home games this season.

Casa Pia AC

Draw

16%

Sporting Clube de Portugal

76%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 62% and Under 2.5 is 38%.

Over 2.5 in 6 of 8 Sporting CP games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	83%	17%	1.20
2.5 goals	62%	38%	1.62
3.5 goals	40%	60%	2.53

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance: Casa Pia AC score in about 52% of simulated outcomes and Sporting Clube de Portugal in about 92%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 3.2 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	49%	2.06
No	51%	1.95

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Casa Pia AC win	8%	12.22
Draw	16%	6.40
Sporting Clube de Portugal win	76%	1.31
Over 2.5	62%	1.62
Under 2.5	38%	2.62

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.2 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Casa Pia AC goals (rows) × Sporting Clube de Portugal goals (columns)
Casa \ Sporting	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4%	10%	13%	11%	7%	3%
1	3%	7%	9%	7%	5%	2%
2	1%	3%	3%	3%	2%	1%
3	0%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%
4	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	4% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

0-2

13%

0-3

11%

0-1

10%

1-2

1-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Casa Pia and Sporting CP played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Casa Pia, last 5

Casa Pia, last 5 at home

Sporting CP, last 5

Sporting CP, last 5 away

Current streaks

Sporting CP: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 14 league games.
Sporting CP are unbeaten in their last 13 league games.
Sporting CP: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.

Primeira Liga games only, runs of three or more. Casa Pia and Sporting CP.

How Casa Pia and Sporting CP compare this season

Stat	Casa Pia (home, 4)	Sporting CP (away, 4)	Primeira Liga average
Over 1.5	50% (2/4)	100% (4/4)	74%
Over 2.5	50% (2/4)	75% (3/4)	54%
Over 3.5	50% (2/4)	75% (3/4)	36%
BTTS	25% (1/4)	75% (3/4)	49%
Win %	0% (0/4)	50% (2/4)	38% home · 38% away
Goals for per game	0.25	2.50	1.36
Goals against per game	3.25	1.00	1.36

Primeira Liga average from 76 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Primeira Liga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Casa Pia	17	4	8
Sporting CP	3	18	8

Full Primeira Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Casa Pia 0 wins, 0 draws, Sporting CP 5 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 1 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Fri, 16 Jan 2026	Primeira Liga	Sporting CP v Casa Pia	3–0
Fri, 8 Aug 2025	Primeira Liga	Casa Pia v Sporting CP	0–2
Sun, 9 Mar 2025	Primeira Liga	Casa Pia v Sporting CP	1–3
Sat, 5 Oct 2024	Primeira Liga	Sporting CP v Casa Pia	2–0
Mon, 29 Jan 2024	Primeira Liga	Sporting CP v Casa Pia	8–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Casa Pia v Sporting CP?: Our model makes Sporting CP the more likely winner at 76%: Casa Pia 8%, draw 16%, Sporting CP 76%. Casa Pia lost all 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Casa Pia v Sporting CP?: Over 2.5 goals is 62% and under 2.5 is 38%, with expected goals of 3.2. Over 2.5 in 6 of 8 Sporting CP games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 0-2 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Casa Pia and Sporting CP played recently?: Latest first: Casa Pia LWLDL, Sporting CP LWWDD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions

Sun, 25 Oct 2026
15:30 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaEstoril PraiavMoreirense	O1.577%	47%	26%	27%	77%	52%	30%	52%	52%	77%	30%	52%
18:00 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaNacionalvBraga	O1.577%	22%	24%	54%	77%	52%	30%	51%	52%	77%	30%	51%
18:00 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaRio AvevFamalicão	U3.578%	28%	28%	44%	69%	42%	22%	49%	42%	69%	22%	49%
20:30 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaSporting CPvAcad. Viseu	O1.585%	73%	17%	11%	85%	65%	43%	51%	65%	85%	43%	51%
Mon, 26 Oct 2026
18:45 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaSanta ClaravSL Benfica	U3.578%	18%	26%	57%	70%	43%	22%	48%	43%	70%	22%	48%
Sat, 31 Oct 2026
15:30 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaMoreirensevAmadora	U3.575%	46%	27%	27%	73%	47%	25%	51%	47%	73%	25%	51%

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