Primeira Liga · Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 15:30 UK
Moreirense FC vs CF Estrela da Amadora prediction (Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 15:30 UK): Moreirense FC 46% · Draw 27% · CF Estrela da Amadora 27%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.48–1.07. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Moreirense vs Amadora preview
Moreirense (12th, 8 pts) host Amadora (10th, 10 pts) in the Primeira Liga. Moreirense have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (LDWLL) and Amadora 5 points from 5 (LLDWD). Amadora have not won in their last 4 league games.
Our model favours Moreirense at 46% to Amadora's 27%. Expected goals are 1.48 for Moreirense and 1.07 for Amadora, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).
The goal markets sit close to the Primeira Liga norm: Over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 51%. In their last 5 meetings, Moreirense won 1, Amadora won 1 and 3 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.
Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 53%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.
Who will win Moreirense FC vs CF Estrela da Amadora?
Moreirense FC are favoured at 46%, but the draw and a CF Estrela da Amadora win together still account for 54%. Recent form: Moreirense FC LDWLLW, CF Estrela da Amadora LLDWDW (latest first).
Amadora have not won in their last 4 league games.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 47% and Under 2.5 is 53%.
Amadora: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 73% | 27% | 1.37 |
| 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | 2.12 |
| 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | 3.92 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: Moreirense FC score in about 77% of simulated outcomes and CF Estrela da Amadora in about 66%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 3 of 4 Amadora away games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 51% | 1.98 |
| No | 49% | 2.02 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 46% | 2.16 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.73 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 27% | 3.71 |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.6 total goals.
| Moreirense \ CF | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 1 | 11% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 9% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 3 | 4% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Moreirense and Amadora played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Amadora have not won in their last 4 league games.
- Amadora: at least one side failed to score in each of their last 3 league games.
- Amadora have failed to score in each of their last 3 league games.
- Amadora have lost each of their last 3 league games.
- Amadora: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Primeira Liga games only, runs of three or more. Moreirense and Amadora.
How Moreirense and Amadora compare this season
| Stat | Moreirense (home, 4) | Amadora (away, 4) | Primeira Liga average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 75% (3/4) | 75% (3/4) | 74% |
| Over 2.5 | 75% (3/4) | 75% (3/4) | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% (3/4) | 75% (3/4) | 36% |
| BTTS | 50% (2/4) | 75% (3/4) | 49% |
| Win % | 25% (1/4) | 25% (1/4) | 38% home · 38% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.25 | 2.00 | 1.36 |
| Goals against per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.36 |
Primeira Liga average from 76 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Primeira Liga table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 12 | 8 | 8 |
| Amadora | 10 | 10 | 8 |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Moreirense 1 win, 3 draws, Amadora 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 4 of 5.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 2 May 2026 | Primeira Liga | Moreirense v Amadora | 3–2 |
| Sat, 20 Dec 2025 | Primeira Liga | Amadora v Moreirense | 0–0 |
| Sun, 2 Mar 2025 | Primeira Liga | Moreirense v Amadora | 1–1 |
| Sat, 28 Sept 2024 | Primeira Liga | Amadora v Moreirense | 2–1 |
| Sun, 7 Apr 2024 | Primeira Liga | Moreirense v Amadora | 2–2 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Moreirense v Amadora?
- Our model makes Moreirense the more likely winner at 46%: Moreirense 46%, draw 27%, Amadora 27%. Amadora have not won in their last 4 league games.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Moreirense v Amadora?
- Over 2.5 goals is 47% and under 2.5 is 53%, with expected goals of 2.6. Amadora: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Moreirense and Amadora played recently?
- Latest first: Moreirense LDWLL, Amadora LLDWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- Moreirense FC
- CF Estrela da Amadora
- Primeira Liga predictions
- Primeira Liga table
- Primeira Liga Home win
- Primeira Liga Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
15:30 · PrimeiraPrimeira Liga  | O1.577% | 47% | 26% | 27% | 52% | 77% | 30% | 52% |
18:00 · PrimeiraPrimeira Liga  | O1.577% | 22% | 24% | 54% | 52% | 77% | 30% | 51% |
18:00 · PrimeiraPrimeira Liga  | U3.578% | 28% | 28% | 44% | 42% | 69% | 22% | 49% |
20:30 · PrimeiraPrimeira Liga  | O1.585% | 73% | 17% | 11% | 65% | 85% | 43% | 51% |
| Mon, 26 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
18:45 · PrimeiraPrimeira Liga  | U3.578% | 18% | 26% | 57% | 43% | 70% | 22% | 48% |
| Fri, 30 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
20:15 · PrimeiraPrimeira Liga | O1.583% | 8% | 16% | 76% | 62% | 83% | 40% | 49% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12:30 · Premier LgPremier League  | O1.584% | 46% | 25% | 29% | 62% | 84% | 40% | 60% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.574% | 33% | 27% | 40% | 48% | 73% | 26% | 53% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.577% | 48% | 27% | 25% | 44% | 70% | 23% | 51% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | O1.578% | 55% | 24% | 22% | 55% | 78% | 32% | 54% |
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.579% | 23% | 24% | 54% | 56% | 79% | 34% | 55% |