ProbaPredict

FC Arouca crest FC Arouca vs CD Nacional CD Nacional crest prediction

Primeira Liga · Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 15:30 UK

FC Arouca vs CD Nacional prediction (Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 15:30 UK): FC Arouca 52% · Draw 25% · CD Nacional 23%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.68–1.05. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Arouca vs Nacional preview

Arouca (5th, 14 pts) host Nacional (16th, 4 pts) in the Primeira Liga. Arouca have taken 8 points from their last 5 games (WDLDW) and Nacional 0 points from 5 (LLLLL), so Arouca arrive in clearly better form. Nacional have lost each of their last 6 league games.

Our model favours Arouca at 52% to Nacional's 23%. Expected goals are 1.68 for Arouca and 1.05 for Nacional, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

The goal markets sit close to the Primeira Liga norm: Over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 51%. In their last 4 meetings, Arouca won all 4; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Arouca to win is the model's clearest call at 52%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win FC Arouca vs CD Nacional?

FC Arouca are favoured at 52%, but the draw and a CD Nacional win together still account for 48%. Recent form: FC Arouca WDLDWL, CD Nacional LLLLLL (latest first).

Arouca won 3 of 4 home games this season.

FC Arouca52%
Draw25%
CD Nacional23%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 51% and Under 2.5 is 49%.

Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Arouca home games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals76%24%1.31
2.5 goals51%49%1.95
3.5 goals29%71%3.42

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: FC Arouca score in about 81% of simulated outcomes and CD Nacional in about 65%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes51%1.95
No49%2.05

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
FC Arouca win52%1.93
Draw25%4.00
CD Nacional win23%4.31
Over 2.551%1.95
Under 2.549%2.06

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

Share:XWhatsAppTelegramFacebook

What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: FC Arouca goals (rows) × CD Nacional goals (columns)
FC \ CD012345
07%6%4%1%0%0%
111%12%6%2%1%0%
29%10%5%2%0%0%
35%5%3%1%0%0%
42%2%1%0%0%0%
51%1%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-112%
1-011%
2-110%
2-09%
0-07%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Arouca and Nacional played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Arouca, last 5
  1. W 1–0 v Amadora
  2. D 2–2 at Sporting CP
  3. L 1–2 v Santa Clara
  4. D 0–0 at Estoril Praia
  5. W 2–1 v Marítimo
Arouca, last 5 at home
  1. W 1–0 v Amadora
  2. L 1–2 v Santa Clara
  3. W 2–1 v Marítimo
  4. W 4–0 v Moreirense
  5. W 3–1 v Tondela
Nacional, last 5
  1. L 2–3 at Rio Ave
  2. L 0–4 v Famalicão
  3. L 1–3 v Alverca
  4. L 0–2 at Sporting CP
  5. L 2–3 v Amadora
Nacional, last 5 away
  1. L 2–3 at Rio Ave
  2. L 0–2 at Sporting CP
  3. L 0–1 at Vitória
  4. D 2–2 at Santa Clara
  5. L 0–2 at Santa Clara

Current streaks

Primeira Liga games only, runs of three or more. Arouca and Nacional.

How Arouca and Nacional compare this season

StatArouca (home, 4)Nacional (away, 4)Primeira Liga average
Over 1.575% (3/4)75% (3/4)74%
Over 2.575% (3/4)50% (2/4)54%
Over 3.525% (1/4)50% (2/4)36%
BTTS50% (2/4)50% (2/4)49%
Win %75% (3/4)0% (0/4)38% home · 38% away
Goals for per game2.001.001.36
Goals against per game0.752.001.36

Primeira Liga average from 76 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Primeira Liga table

TeamPosPtsP
Arouca5148
Nacional1648

Full Primeira Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Arouca 4 wins, 0 draws, Nacional 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sat, 21 Feb 2026Primeira LigaArouca v Nacional3–0
Sat, 20 Sept 2025Primeira LigaNacional v Arouca1–2
Sat, 1 Feb 2025Primeira LigaNacional v Arouca1–2
Sun, 25 Aug 2024Primeira LigaArouca v Nacional1–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Arouca v Nacional?
Our model makes Arouca the more likely winner at 52%: Arouca 52%, draw 25%, Nacional 23%. Arouca won 3 of 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Arouca v Nacional?
Over 2.5 goals is 51% and under 2.5 is 49%, with expected goals of 2.7. Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Arouca home games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Arouca and Nacional played recently?
Latest first: Arouca WDLDW, Nacional LLLLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
15:30 · PrimeiraGD Estoril Praia crestEstoril PraiaMoreirense FC crestMoreirenseO1.577%47%26%27%52%77%30%52%
18:00 · PrimeiraCD Nacional crestNacionalSporting Clube de Braga crestBragaO1.577%22%24%54%52%77%30%51%
18:00 · PrimeiraRio Ave FC crestRio AveFC Famalicão crestFamalicãoU3.578%28%28%44%42%69%22%49%
20:30 · PrimeiraSporting Clube de Portugal crestSporting CPAcadémico de Viseu FC crestAcad. ViseuO1.585%73%17%11%65%85%43%51%
Mon, 26 Oct 2026
18:45 · PrimeiraCD Santa Clara crestSanta ClaraSport Lisboa e Benfica crestSL BenficaU3.578%18%26%57%43%70%22%48%
Fri, 30 Oct 2026
20:15 · PrimeiraCasa Pia AC crestCasa PiaSporting Clube de Portugal crestSporting CPO1.583%8%16%76%62%83%40%49%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sun, 1 Nov 2026
11:15 · EredivisiePEC Zwolle crestZwolleADO Den Haag crestDen HaagO1.584%43%24%33%63%84%41%61%
11:30 · Serie AComo 1907 crestComo 1907Venezia FC crestVeneziaO1.580%61%22%17%57%80%34%52%
13:00 · La LigaGetafe CF crestGetafeSevilla FC crestSevillaU3.587%37%32%30%31%58%13%48%
13:30 · EredivisieTelstar 1963 crestTelstarFC Utrecht crestUtrechtO1.582%37%25%38%59%82%37%60%
13:30 · EredivisieSBV Excelsior crestExcelsiorFC Twente '65 crestTwenteO1.580%26%24%50%57%80%34%58%