FC Porto vs GD Estoril Praia prediction

Primeira Liga · Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 20:30 UK

FC Porto vs GD Estoril Praia prediction (Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 20:30 UK): FC Porto 77% · Draw 15% · GD Estoril Praia 8%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%. Most likely score: 2-0. Expected goals 2.49–0.67. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 48%, No 52%. Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 3-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%).

Published Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Porto vs Estoril Praia preview

Porto (1st, 27 pts) host Estoril Praia (18th, 2 pts) in the Primeira Liga. Porto have taken 9 points from their last 5 games (WLLWW) and Estoril Praia 1 point from 5 (LLLLD), so Porto arrive in clearly better form. Estoril Praia have not won in their last 17 league games.

Our model makes Porto clear favourites at 77%, with Estoril Praia at 8%. Expected goals are 2.49 for Porto and 0.67 for Estoril Praia, and the most likely score is 2-0 (13%).

The goal markets sit close to the Primeira Liga norm: Over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 48%. In their last 5 meetings, Porto won 4 and Estoril Praia won 1; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Porto to win is the model's clearest call at 77%, which still fails about 2 times in 10.

Who will win FC Porto vs GD Estoril Praia?

FC Porto are clear favourites at 77%, with GD Estoril Praia at 8%. Recent form: FC Porto WLLWWW, GD Estoril Praia LLLLDL (latest first).

Porto won all 4 home games this season.

FC Porto

77%

Draw

15%

GD Estoril Praia

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 61% and Under 2.5 is 39%.

Estoril Praia: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	83%	17%	1.21
2.5 goals	61%	39%	1.63
3.5 goals	39%	61%	2.57

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 48% chance: FC Porto score in about 92% of simulated outcomes and GD Estoril Praia in about 51%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 3.2 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	48%	2.08
No	52%	1.93

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
FC Porto win	77%	1.30
Draw	15%	6.52
GD Estoril Praia win	8%	13.03
Over 2.5	61%	1.63
Under 2.5	39%	2.58

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.2 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: FC Porto goals (rows) × GD Estoril Praia goals (columns)
FC \ GD	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0%
1	10%	7%	2%	1%	0%	0%
2	13%	9%	3%	1%	0%	0%
3	11%	7%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	7%	5%	2%	0%	0%	0%
5	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	4% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

2-0

13%

3-0

11%

1-0

10%

2-1

3-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Porto and Estoril Praia played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Porto, last 5

Porto, last 5 at home

Estoril Praia, last 5

Estoril Praia, last 5 away

Current streaks

Estoril Praia have not won in their last 17 league games.
Porto are unbeaten in their last 10 league games.
Porto have won each of their last 10 league games.
Estoril Praia have lost each of their last 4 league games.
Estoril Praia: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Estoril Praia: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Estoril Praia: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Primeira Liga games only, runs of three or more. Porto and Estoril Praia.

How Porto and Estoril Praia compare this season

Stat	Porto (home, 4)	Estoril Praia (away, 4)	Primeira Liga average
Over 1.5	100% (4/4)	75% (3/4)	74%
Over 2.5	50% (2/4)	50% (2/4)	55%
Over 3.5	25% (1/4)	0% (0/4)	36%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	50% (2/4)	49%
Win %	100% (4/4)	0% (0/4)	38% home · 40% away
Goals for per game	2.25	0.50	1.37
Goals against per game	0.50	1.75	1.37

Primeira Liga average from 80 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Primeira Liga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Porto	1	27	9
Estoril Praia	18	2	8

Full Primeira Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Porto 4 wins, 0 draws, Estoril Praia 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 12 Apr 2026	Primeira Liga	Estoril Praia v Porto	1–3
Sun, 30 Nov 2025	Primeira Liga	Porto v Estoril Praia	1–0
Sun, 30 Mar 2025	Primeira Liga	Estoril Praia v Porto	1–2
Sun, 3 Nov 2024	Primeira Liga	Porto v Estoril Praia	4–0
Sat, 30 Mar 2024	Primeira Liga	Estoril Praia v Porto	1–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Porto v Estoril Praia?: Our model makes Porto the more likely winner at 77%: Porto 77%, draw 15%, Estoril Praia 8%. Porto won all 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Porto v Estoril Praia?: Over 2.5 goals is 61% and under 2.5 is 39%, with expected goals of 3.2. Estoril Praia: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
What is the most likely score?: 2-0 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Porto and Estoril Praia played recently?: Latest first: Porto WLLWW, Estoril Praia LLLLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions

Mon, 26 Oct 2026
18:45 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaSanta ClaravSL Benfica	U3.578%	18%	26%	57%	70%	43%	22%	48%	43%	70%	22%	48%
Fri, 30 Oct 2026
20:15 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaCasa PiavSporting CP	O1.583%	9%	16%	76%	83%	62%	39%	49%	62%	83%	39%	49%
Sat, 31 Oct 2026
15:30 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaMoreirensevAmadora	O1.574%	48%	26%	26%	74%	48%	26%	51%	48%	74%	26%	51%
Sun, 1 Nov 2026
15:30 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaAroucavNacional	O1.575%	51%	25%	24%	75%	50%	28%	51%	50%	75%	28%	51%
18:00 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaAcad. ViseuvRio Ave	O1.580%	68%	19%	12%	80%	58%	35%	50%	58%	80%	35%	50%
18:00 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaMarítimovSanta Clara	U3.578%	28%	28%	43%	69%	42%	22%	49%	42%	69%	22%	49%

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